Posts Tagged ‘Keynesian policies’

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem

This is a terrific article (yellow highlighting mine), courtesy of Gordon T. Long, The Tipping Point  - Ilene 

INNOVATION

America has a Structural Problem 

It’s a STRUCTURAL problem not a CYCLICAL problem! 

It’s a DEMAND problem not a SUPPLY problem! 

 

 

I gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

 

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will. Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama’s exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is twofold:

 

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem. Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.


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ROSENBERG: WE ARE IN A CLASSIC TOPPING FORMATION

ROSENBERG: WE ARE IN A CLASSIC TOPPING FORMATION

View of Mt. Shasta from near Weed, California

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

In a note to clients this morning David Rosenberg made an interesting comparison of today’s market to 2007.  He says:

“So what does the current backdrop resemble in a modern-day sense?  The summer and fall of 2007.  Think about it.  The S&P 500 has been jerking around  on either side of 1,100 for five months now.  The 10-year note yield has jumped 20 basis points from the nearby low with hardly any reason outside of negative technicals.

Go back to that period between May and October of 2007, and the S&P was just  above or just below the 1,500 mark for over five months.  Many didn’t know it  then, and we should all be taking it into consideration now, but we were in a  classic topping formation.  Back then, as is the case today, the bond market was getting hit hard with the 10-year note yield surging 50bps, to 5.2%, and the universe of economists and strategists completely bearish on the Treasury market at just the wrong time.  What goes around comes around.”

My initial reaction is to say, “this is pure datamining” but with the reflation trade, lack of regulation, rinsing and repeating of failed Keynesian policies, and the overall non-resolution of the credit crisis causes it’s fairly safe to say that we have officially returned to the status quo.   Whether this is 2007 or 1992 is unclear in my opinion.  What I do know is that we have resolved none of the problems that caused the credit crisis.  Whether we are walking the edge of the cliff or on the launching pad of the next bull market remains uncertain.  What is certain is that the Fed’s boom/bust policies are well intact and the U.S. economy will continue along its flawed path of bubbles = prosperity. 


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Zero Hedge

FDA Approves Gilead's Remdesivir To Treat COVID-19 Despite Data Showing Drug Doesn't Work

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Despite reams of data from an international WHO study raising serious questions about its efficacy, the FDA has finally approved the use of Gilead Science's remdesivir - a powerful antiviral originally developed to treat ebola - for the treatment of COVID-19, making it the first such drug approved to treat the virus in the US.

The FDA first granted the drug emergency authorization in May, allowing hospitals and ...



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Phil's Favorites

SPINNING WHEEL

 

SPINNING WHEEL

Courtesy of Almost Daily Grant's

Top of the heap no more. International Business Machines Corp. reported third quarter earnings on Monday, including $17.56 billion in revenues.  That’s down 2.6% from a year ago and 3.1% sequentially and the weakest result since the first quarter of 1997. 

While $2.58 in headline earnings per share was down 4% from a year ago, a series of salutary one-time adjustments spruced up that figure, which was 27% above the $1.89 per share derived from generally accepted accounting principles.  Even those GAAP results were flattered by a meager 7% corporate tax rate.  In 1985, when then-dominant IBM commanded a 6.4% share of the market cap-weighted S&P 500 (a record single-stock concentrati...



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Politics

How to track your mail-in ballot

 

How to track your mail-in ballot

Make sure you know when your ballot is arriving, and whether it’s been accepted for counting back at your election office. erhui1979/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Mulroy, University of Memphis

Many voters who want to participate in the election by mail are concerned about when they’ll receive their ballot – and whether it will get back in time to be counted.

The pandemic has caused interest in ...



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ValueWalk

A New Judge At The Expense Of COVID Relief

By Ankur Shah. Originally published at ValueWalk.

What’s At Stake for Small Businesses with another Conservative Supreme Court Confirmation?

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Press Call - Monday - 2pm ET - Register

Senate Wants A New Judge At ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Disney's pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

 

Image by Eiji Kikuta from Pixabay

 

Disney’s pivot to streaming is a sign of severe COVID economic crisis still to come

Courtesy of Hamza Mudassir, Cambridge Judge Business School

Disney has announced a significant restructuring o...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper/Gold Indicator Breaking Out Again?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Doc Copper/Gold ratio broke above a 2-year falling channel back in 2016 at (1). Following this breakout, it rallied for the next year. During that year, Copper related assets did very well!

The ratio peaked in the summer of 2018 and created a series of lower highs over the past two years.

The strength of late has the ratio attempting to break above dual resistance at (2).

If the ratio continues to push higher and succeeds in breaking out, Copper, Basic Materials (XLB), and ...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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