Posts Tagged ‘KSS’

Kohl’s Corp. Call Options Active As Shares Sell Off

 

Today’s tickers: KSS, BLOX & TASR

KSS - Kohl’s Corp. – U.S. equities are moving higher on Thursday morning on optimism legislators will tackle the fiscal cliff, but shares in apparel and home goods retailer, Kohl’s Corp., failed to join in on the rally after the company said November same-store sales will be down 5.6% versus the 2.1% increase in the metric forecast by analysts. The department store operator’s shares are off the lowest levels of the session, down 8% on the day at $47.00 as of 11:40 a.m. in New York. Upside call buying in the front month options suggests some traders anticipate a rebound in the price of the underlying in the near term. The heaviest trading traffic in the December expiry options is in the $50 strike calls where around 3,300 contracts have changed hands against open interest of 845 positions. Time and sales data indicates the bulk of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.15 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month should shares in Kohl’s increase 7% to surpass the average breakeven price of $50.15. Finally, it appears one options trader who purchased 2,000 calls at the Dec. $52.5 strike yesterday took a big hit today with the substantial decline in the stock price. Premium on the calls, purchased at $0.55 apiece on Wednesday, has collapsed overnight to just $0.05 per contract as of midday on the East Coast.

BLOX - Infoblox, Inc. – Shares in the provider of network automation technology and services are soaring today after the company swung to a first-quarter profit of $0.06 a share, beating the average analyst forecast for a break-even quarter. The stock is up nearly 37% as of midday in New York to trade at $19.01, the highest level since mid-October, and was raised to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ with a 12-month target price of $21.00 at Wedbush. Options on Infoblox are far more active than usual, with 715…
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Kohl’s Corp., Netflix Call Options In Focus As Shares Soar

 

Today’s tickers: KSS, NFLX & CTSH

KSS - Kohl's Corp. – Shares in the department store operator are up better than 7.5% at $47.68 as of 11:35 a.m. in New York despite a larger-than-expected decline in the company’s June same-store sales. Kohl’s reported a 4.8% drop in same-store sales for last month and said it expects second-quarter earnings to come in at the low end of their prior forecast of $0.96 to $1.02 a share. The pop in the price of the underlying shares made KSS one of the best performers in the S&P 500 Index this morning and spurred bullish activity in the retailer’s options as some traders looked to position for the stock to extend gains in the near term. Volume in the front month calls is heaviest at the July $46 strike where approximately 1,000 in-the-money calls were purchased for an average premium of $1.05 apiece. Traders long the calls stand ready to profit should shares in Kohl’s settle above the average breakeven price of $47.05 at expiration. Premium required to buy the July $46 calls has moved up sharply intraday, with the last-traded price on the contracts up at $2.15 for a 105% increase over the $1.05 traders paid on average earlier in the session. Finally, traders that purchased calls ahead of Independence Day returned Thursday to find the value of their positions soaring to the upside. Open interest in the July $46 call suggests around 430 contracts were picked up at a premium of $0.50 apiece on Tuesday. These call options are now worth more than four times as much.

NFLX - Netflix, Inc. – The provider of subscription streaming services for television episodes and movies is leading the S&P 500 gainers today, with shares in Netflix up more than 11.5% at $80.45 on reports users streamed a record 1 billion hours of video during the month of June. The big move in the price of the underlying saw an…
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Thrill Is Gone Thursday – Already?

SPY DAILYYesterday was very exciting, but now what?

David Fry summed up yesterday’s action perfectly, saying "Wednesday’s massive rally was prompted by sudden global central bank intervention adding (printing money) liquidity (reducing the lending rate overseas to zero basically) to shore up sovereign debt in the eurozone. They basically set up a swap facility to do the job in the future. Is it a cure or a bailout? No, this is a handout. And it doesn’t solve the problems the eurozone is facing."  

"But, it must be said that the European leaders must have hit a dead end in talks and a potential financial panic must have seemed likely. Mind you, Mr. Bernanke is perfectly comfortable with reflation and money printing. He’s been at it for a long time. It will take years for the Freedom of Information Act to discover how much money and to whom the U.S. has given free money. Americans and others will see price increases in all products and services as a result of a weaker dollar negatively affecting purchasing power. Beyond Moral Hazard issues this is the cost you’ll see and perhaps even wonder why."

openingimageIt’s the classic "stick save" that was clearly (to us) telegraphed by the very low-volume blow-off bottom last week and now, in retrospect, it is also clear that the market manipulators and their media hounds were pulling out all the stops to get retail investors to SELLSELLSELL.  

As I mentioned yesterday, I’ve been railing against the market manipulation and the media nonsense that had been going on each month and today we learn that Wall Street execs did, in fact, meet privately with top Fed officials in September, according to Fed documents, and they "recommended" Central Banks make a joint effort to address the Eurozone debt crisis.  Don’t forget that our Fed works for the Banksters, not vice versa!  In addition to knowing well in advance this move was coming, their suggestions included boosting the global economy by buying securities, a move that may yet happen as many investors believe yesterday’s swap announcement was a prelude to additional coordinated action.   

You see, it’s not enough for Lloyd Blanfein (allegedly and for example, of course, a fine man like Lloyd would never do this) to know that the Fed is going to make a massive move like yesterday – there’s much more money to be made if…
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Investors Peruse Kohl’s Options

Today’s tickers: KSS, AEP, FCX & SPLS

KSS - Kohl’s Corp. – The department store operator’s shares jumped 4.25% this afternoon to an intraday high of $55.90 following the company’s first-quarter earnings release ahead of the open this morning. Kohl’s Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast to a range of $4.25 to $4.40 a share, which tops average analyst estimates of around $4.36 a share. Some strategists browsing through Kohl’s options today are positioning for the stock to extend gains, while others could be taking profits on pre-earnings positions or taking a more bearish stance on the stock in the near term. Traders picked up around 2,200 now in-the-money calls at the May $55 strike for an average premium of $0.47 each. Call buyers at this strike make money if shares in KSS exceed the average breakeven price of $55.47 through expiration next week. Meanwhile, put and call selling took place in the June contract. Traders sold roughly 1,160 calls at the June $52.5 strike for an average premium of $3.10 each, and shed 1,900 calls up at the June $55 strike at a premium of $1.40 apiece. Open interest in the June $52.5 strike calls suggests investors bought some 5,090 calls at that strike for an average premium of $1.68 each back on April 26. Traders selling the now deep in-the-money calls could be cashing in on their well-placed bullish positions. On Tuesday, around 1,000 calls were picked up at the June $55 strike for an average premium of $0.70 each. The subsequent rally in the price of the underlying has these contracts trading with an asking price of $1.70 per contract as of 2:15pm. Volume of 2,200 calls at the June $55 strike exceeds open interest of 1,592 contracts. Nearly all of the calls exchanged at that strike sold for an average premium of $1.40 each. Perhaps call sellers see shares in Kohl’s trading below $55.00 at expiration in June. Put players sold around 2,000 contracts at the June $52.5 strike…
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Bull Eyes New Highs in United Continental Shares by Year’s End

Today’s tickers: UAL, KSS, ANN, KO, SINA, XLF, FRX & OI

UAL - United Continental Holdings, Inc. – The world’s largest carrier jumped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner earlier today after one bullish options player purchased a large call spread in the December contract. Shares in United Continental rose 0.90% this afternoon to trade at $27.42 as of 3:00 pm. The investor purchased approximately 11,200 calls at the December $29 strike for a premium of $0.72 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher December $31 strike at a premium of $0.32 each. Paying a net $0.40 per contract for the spread, the investor is prepared to profit should shares in UAL surge 7.2% over the current price of $27.42 to surpass the effective breakeven point to the upside at $29.40 by expiration day. The trader is poised to accumulate maximum potential profits of $1.60 per contract, roughly $1.792 million, if the airline operator’s shares jump 13.05% and trade above $31.00 by expiration in December.

KSS - Kohl’s Corp. – Massive prints in Kohl’s Corp. call and put options caught our eye this afternoon. Shares of the department store operator that sells nationally recognized as well as privately branded goods increased as much as 4.165% in the second half of the session to touch an intraday high of $52.76. It looks like the investor responsible for the mammoth transaction sold 50,000 puts at the December $50 strike for a premium of $0.85 each, and purchased the same number of calls up at the December $57.5 strike at a premium of $0.30 apiece. The risk reversal was tied to the sale of 2.15 million shares of the underlying stock at a price of $52.12 on a 0.43 delta. The investor receives a net credit…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?

Beware the data!

The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%.  What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected.  Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number

This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it's a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we're going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless.  It's also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad. 

Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis.  Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity). 

 

Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers".  In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can't be said for the State overall!  California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on.  This doesn't seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we're bailing
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Gaylord Welcomes New Options Players As Investors Target Upside

Today’s tickers: GET, BAC, WFMI, KSS, HGSI, MOS, AES & NUAN

GET – The diversified hospitality and entertainment company edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after a bullish reversal was established in the October contract. Shares of GET have surged more than 17.5% to $17.22 today on “solid” second-quarter results which exceeded analyst expectations. An investor looking for continued gains in the stock sold 3,000 puts short at the October 12.5 strike price for 55 cents per contract in order to partially fund the purchase of 3,000 calls at the higher October 17.5 strike for a premium of 1.65 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts 1.10. The trader will begin to accrue profits by expiration if shares can continue higher by at least 8% to breach the breakeven point at $18.60. We note that the more than 6,000 lots exchanged on the stock today, trumps previous existing open interest of 1,993 contracts by 201%. – Gaylord Entertainment Company

BAC – A number of longer-term option trades observed on BAC today indicate that some investors believe the financial services firm is on the road to recovery. Shares have increased more than 3% to arrive at the current price of $15.80. Call spreads were enacted in the February 2010 contract by traders expecting significant appreciation in the value of the underlying shares by expiration. Approximately 14,000 calls were purchased at the February 20 strike price for an average premium of 86 cents apiece, and were spread against the sale of about 14,000 calls at the higher February 25 strike for 22 cents each. The average net cost of the transaction amounts to 64 cents. Investors will enjoy maximum potential profits of 4.36 per contract if shares of BAC can rally a whopping 58% to $25.00 by expiration in February. Traders will begin to amass profits given a 31% rise in the stock through the breakeven point at $20.64. – Bank of America Corp.

WFMI – The largest retailer of natural and organic foods in the U.S. is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today. Shares are currently off slightly by more than 1% to $24.45 as we near the conclusion of today’s trading session. Option trades revealed mixed sentiment by investors ahead of earnings. A trader who could be protecting a long position in the underlying was seen selling 5,000 puts short at
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Zero Hedge

'Father Of Credit Risk Modeling' Has Ominous Warning Over "Insolvent" Companies Piling Up Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

“When there is an increase in insolvency risk, what you do not need is more debt. You need less debt.”

That is the common-sense warning from Ed Altman that every talking head in the world seems incapable of understanding or admitting.

Altman, wh...



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Phil's Favorites

Was that the Top?

 

Was that the Top?

Courtesy of  (originally posted on July 13, 20) 

That was one heck of a reversal today in tech stocks. At one point the Nasdaq-100 was up more than 2%, but it gave up all of those gains and then some, finishing the day down over 2%.

After a 60% move off the March lows, the question on many investor’s minds tonight is, “was that the top?”

This type of reversal is rare and is only seen in volatile markets. It happened at the bottom in March 2020, and before that you’d have to go all the way back to the bottom of March 2009.

It’s happened at the bottom, but it also ha...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How 'good' does a COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic? A new study has answers

 

How 'good' does a COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic? A new study has answers

The lower the vaccine’s effectiveness, the more likely social distancing in some form may still be necessary. Gopixa via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bruce Y. Lee, City University of New York

The U.S. is pinning its hopes on a COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine, but will a vaccine alone be enough to stop the pandemic and allow life to return to normal?

The answer depends on a how “good” the vaccine ends u...



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ValueWalk

Whitney Tilson Is Bullish On Bank Stocks

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors disucssing him being bullish on bank stocks; the bear case; Doug Kass with the bull case.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Earnings Season For The Big Banks

1) It's earnings season for the big banks this week.

Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported this morning... Goldman Sachs (GS) is up tomorrow... and Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) round things out on Thursday.

The sector has been decimated this year. The Invesco KBW Bank Fund (KBWB) is down 35% year to date, vast...



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Digital Currencies

Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bloomberg, Kanye, Apple Twitter Accounts All Hacked In "Nigerian" Bitcoin Scam, Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

The twitter accounts of two of the world's richest men, Bill Gates and Elon Musk (and perhaps others) were hacked late on Wednesday, in what appears to be a version of a "Nigerian" bitcoin scam.

At 440pm ET, Musk tweeted the following:

Microsoft founder Bill Gates had a similar tweet.

As did Jeff Bezos:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junior Gold Miners Working On 7-Year Breakout!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a long 7-years if you happened to buy Junior miners ETF (GDXJ) back in 2013, as it has traded sideways since those highs.

This chart comes from Marketsmith.com, which reflects that GDXJ is trading above long-term moving averages and its relative strength continues to push higher.

GDXJ has spent the majority of the past 7-years inside of the trading range (1).

The rally off the bottom of the range in March, has GDXJ working on an upside breakout of this trading range at (2).

A...



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The Technical Traders

Second Phase Real Estate Collapse Pending

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Real estate, especially commercial real estate, is likely to be the first segment of the real estate market to enter the second phase of an extended collapse.  The COVID-19 virus has created an atmosphere where continuing operations for retail, restaurants, and many other business segments is virtually impossible to maintain.  Without the ability to earn sufficient income, thousands of restaurants and other retail businesses have already closed or are in the process of closing.  This has pushed the commercial real estate market into turmoil.  We believe the residential real estate market will follow the commercial market because consumers are going to suffer as commercial real estate collapses....



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Chart School

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.

Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch 

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving a...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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