Posts Tagged ‘LEN’

Bullish Play Constructed In Lennar Corp Calls

LEN – Lennar Corporation – Shares in U.S. homebuilder Lennar Corp. are rallying on Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that handily beat the average of analyst estimates. The stock increased as much as 5.0% at the start of the session to $36.97, the highest level since the end of October, but are currently well off their highs to trade up 1.4% on the day at $35.69 as of 11:15 a.m. EST.

Trading in Lennar call options initiated within the first 10 minutes of the trading day suggests one strategist is positioning for the price of Lennar’s shares to rally to the highest level since May during the next couple of months. It looks like the trader purchased around 2,000 of the Feb ’14 $39 strike calls this morning at a premium of $1.10 each. The position may be profitable at expiration next year if shares in the homebuilder rally 12% over the current price of $35.69 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $40.10.  


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Traders Construct Call Spreads On Lennar

Today’s tickers: LEN, ZLC & M

LEN - Lennar Corporation – Shares in single-family home builder, Lennar Corp, slipped 2.4% on Wednesday morning to $31.39, the lowest level since August 21st of last year, but options changing hands on the stock today indicate one or more traders are positioning for shares to rebound somewhat during the next five weeks. It looks like options players are buying the Sep $32/$36 call spread, roughly 4,500 times as of the time of this writing, and paying an average net premium of $1.03 per spread. The bullish strategy makes money at expiration next month if shares in LEN rally 5.2% over today’s low of $31.39 to exceed the average breakeven point at $33.03, with maximum potential profits of $2.97 per contract available in the event of a more than 14.5% rally in the price of the underlying to $36.00. Shares in the homebuilder last traded above $36.00 in mid-July.

ZLC - Zale Corporation – Options in play on the operator of specialty retail jewelry stores today suggests some traders are looking for shares in Zale Corp to extend gains in the near term. Shares in ZLC, up nearly 170% since March, increased more than 10% today to touch a new four-year high of $10.29. The Aug and Sep $10 strike call options are the most actively traded by volume today, with roughly 800 of the Aug $10 calls purchased for an average premium of $0.18 each, and around 500 of the Sep $10 calls picked up at an average premium of $0.86 apiece. Traders long the Sep $10 calls may profit at expiration next month if shares in Zale rally 5.5% over today’s high of $10.29 to top the average breakeven price of $10.86. Zale Corp is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings ahead of the open…
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Oracle Miss Weighs On Tech Stocks, Spurs Bearish Options Action In Cloud Space

Today’s tickers: ORCL, INFA, LEN & JAG

ORCL - Oracle Corp. – It’s clear from the 14.6% drop in Oracle’s shares to $24.91 today that investors are disappointed with what the Company had to show for its efforts in the prior quarter. The second-largest software maker yesterday posted fiscal second-quarter profits of $0.54 a share on revenue of $8.81 billion, missing average analyst expectations of $0.57 a share on sales of $9.23 billion. Put buying in the weekly options suggest some traders expect the stock to extend losses ahead of the holiday. Overall options volume on Oracle Corp. has surpassed 205,000 contracts just before 1:00 PM ET as strategists looked to initiate a variety of post-earnings stances, from bearish trades looking for more pain on the horizon, to more optimistic positions that point to potential recovery in the name. Though the report may represent a surprise to the downside for many, it looks like one options player may have read the tea leaves accurately ahead of the earnings release. The strategist appears to have sold around 16,500 long-dated Jan. 2013 $35 strike calls on Oracle back on November 22 for a premium of $2.62 apiece when shares in the software giant were trading around $29.00. The purchase of a large number of call options at the Jan. 2013 $35 strike today may mean the investor is taking profits off the table. It appears approximately 16,500 calls were purchased in the first 20 minutes of the session this morning for an average premium of $1.04 each. If the original seller of the contracts did indeed buy to close the short stance in call options today, he or she has exited the bearish position with net profits of around $1.58 per contract.

INFA - Informatica Corp. – Oracle’s big quarterly earnings miss dragged down the tech sector…
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Bears Mine For Put Options On Agnico-Eagle As Shares Nosedive

Today’s tickers: AEM, ANF, LEN & ALTR

AEM - Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. – News that Agnico-Eagle Mines indefinitely suspended operations at its Goldex mine in Quebec took the luster out of shares in the gold mining company today. The stock fell nearly 20.0% to a multi-year low of $45.78 at its lowest point of the session. Some options traders are positioning for the stock to look even more tarnished by the end of the week. Meanwhile, demand for longer-dated put options on Agnico-Eagle Mines suggests the shares may remain under pressure through AEM’s third-quarter earnings release next Wednesday, for the remainder of 2011, and into the New Year.

Near-term bears jockeyed for put options in the October contract. The Oct. $45 and $47.5 strikes are two of the most active, with the majority of positions in each largely initiated by buyers. Traders exchanged roughly 1,400 in-the-money puts at the Oct. $47.5 strike against open interest of 317 contracts. These contracts were purchased roughly 930 times for an average premium of $0.89 a-pop. Investors long the puts may profit if shares in AEM trade below the average breakeven price of $46.61 at expiration later this week. The Oct. $45 strike put is the most active in the front month, with more than 2,100 of the contracts in play against open interest of 578 lots. Investors purchased most of the put options for an average premium of $0.55 each, and may make money on the bearish position in the event that shares in the gold mining company slip beneath the average breakeven point at $44.45 by expiration day.

Buyers of November contract put options at the $40, $35 and $32.5 strikes may see the value of their deep out-of-the-money options rally should the company’s third-quarter earnings or forward guidance disappoint. Finally, longer-term pessimism cropped up in the Jan. 2012 $45 strike put where some 1,700 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $3.78 apiece. The investor or investors holding the put options may profit at expiration next year if shares in AEM slide 10.0% off today’s low of $45.78 to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $41.22. Shares in Agnico-Eagle Mines last traded below $41.22 back in December 2008. The overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock popped up 26.7% to 57.2% in the first half of the session.

ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – Sizable prints in Abercrombie…
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Cisco Put Sellers Shout loudest

Today’s tickers: CSCO, M, SPWRA & LEN

CSCO – Cisco Systems Inc. – A disappointing revenue forecast for the current quarter by computer giant Cisco late on Wednesday spawned more fears about the strength of global demand moving forward. Cisco’s shares fell pretty close to a 52-week low and stand 24% lower than an April peak. Options traffic was extremely hectic at 327,000 contracts. Atypical of a company in the aftermath of its earnings was a rise in implied volatility, which gained more than 10%. What stands out today is the put activity, where we’re noticing a preponderance to write premium. Investors are likely trying to take advantage of as much of a 13% share price decline to $21.00 on Thursday and used options expiring in the September contract to attempt a long entry to the stock. By selling puts at the $20.00 strike for 37 cents, investors are prepared to have stock in Cisco put to them at expiration in the event the stock trades south of the strike price. If not, they retain the premium in full as compensation for providing stock bears with the insurance. Of 12,000 contracts traded at that line, seven out of eight contracts were sold to the bid. The pattern was repeated in less daring fashion at the October $17.50 strike where an investor acted as a willing Cisco buyer through expiration in exchange for a 17 cent premium on 5,000 put options.

M – Macy’s Inc. – Despite its upbeat predictions for the remainder of the year when it topped earnings predictions on Wednesday, shares in Macy’s are caught in an otherwise weaker environment for retailers. Its shares are 1.2% lower at $20.26. Nevertheless one option investor took advantage of the current bout of weakness by targeting a call spread that will expire after next quarter’s earnings have been announced in November. The bullish play involved 20,000 call options spread evenly between the $21.00 and $24.00 strikes implying a maximum gain of $3.00 less the cost of today’s trade, which nets to 91 cents. The maximum gain of $2.09 would only occur in the event that shares in Macy’s rose 18.5% from present although on a simple breakeven basis the investor needs Macy’s shares to gain 5.5%.

SPWRA – SunPower Corp. – A chunk of 20,000 put options was traded on SunPower earlier at the far-dated January 2012 expiration. Time and sales…
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Frenzied Bearish Options Activity Ensues as Visa, MasterCard Shares Take a Big Hit

Today’s tickers: V, MA, JPM, COF, EEM, STX, MDC, DPS, MYL & LEN

V – Visa, Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest payments network are down sharply by 7.75% to stand at $68.92 as of 2:55 pm (ET) after Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D – RI) suggested Monday that the U.S. should cap interest rates on credit cards. Other credit card companies such as MasterCard and Capital One Financial Corp. are also suffering significant share price erosion this afternoon. Bearish options investors flooded the May contract with pessimistic plays, while more optimistic traders appear to be positioning for a rebound in Visa’s share price by June expiration. Investors bracing for continued bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock picked up 3,600 now in-the-money puts at the May $70 strike for an average premium of $1.15 apiece. Buying interest spread to the lower May $65 strike where 1,400 puts were purchased at an average premium of $0.36 each. Finally, uber-bearish traders scooped up 1,290 puts at the May $60 strike – the lowest strike price currently available in the front month – for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Investors long the May $60 strike puts make money if Visa’s shares plummet 13.15% from the current value of $68.92 to breach the average breakeven point to the downside at $59.84 by expiration on Friday. Bearish traders also ravaged May contract calls, selling roughly 7,000 lots at the May $75 strike to take in an average premium of $0.71 per contract. Investors also shed 2,000 calls at the May $70 strike to receive an average premium of $2.47 apiece. Call sellers retain the full premium received today as long shares of the underlying stock do not exceed $70.00 ahead of expiration. Finally, optimistic options investors are positioning for a rebound in the credit card company’s shares by purchasing 1,800 calls at the June $70 strike for an average premium of $4.71 each. Shares must rally 8.4% over the current price of the stock before June $70 strike call buyers start to make money above the average breakeven price of $74.71. Bullish call buying activity spread to the higher June $72.5 strike where 2,500 calls were picked up for an average premium of $3.64 per contract. Investor uncertainty, as measured by the overall reading of options implied volatility, is net up on Visa today with volatility rising 16.5% to 52.68% as…
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Ford Motor Co. Calls Fly Off the Shelves

Today’s tickers: F, PGR, IBM, YHOO, SMH, LINTA, VALE, POT, LEN & RRGB

F – Ford Motor Co. – Call options on automobile maker, Ford Motor Co., are flying off the assembly line this afternoon with shares of the underlying stock soaring 4.5% higher to $13.36. Investors exchanged more than 381,000 option contracts on Ford by 3:25 pm (ET), and paid extra attention to call contracts, trading more than 3.7 calls to each single put option in action. The most heavily trafficked area of the Ford options arena today are call contracts at the September $14 strike where bullish players bought up approximately 86,000 lots for an average premium of $1.12 apiece. More than 99,100 calls changed hands at this strike, which puts the previously existing open interest of 22,831 contracts to shame. Call-buyers holding the September $14 strike call options are positioned to make money if the auto maker’s shares surge 13.2% over the current price to surpass the average breakeven price of $15.12 by September expiration. Ford’s overall reading of options implied volatility is up 14.5% to 39.48% with 30 minutes remaining in the trading session.

PGR – The Progressive Corp. – Bullish options investors dabbled in call options on the insurance holding company in late afternoon trading with shares of the underlying stock rallying up 5.55% to a new 52-week high of $20.55. One investor was prepared for the rally and banked profits on a previously established long call position today. It looks like the options optimist originally purchased 2,000 calls at the May $20 strike for an average premium of $0.35 apiece back on March 25, 2010, when shares of Progressive Corp. were trading at around $18.86 each. The subsequent surge in the value of Progressive’s shares prompted the trader to sell the calls today for a premium of $0.95 apiece, thus banking net profits of $0.60 per contract. Finally, the investor initiated a fresh bullish stance on the stock by purchasing 2,000 calls at the higher August $22.5 strike for a premium of $0.40 each. The trader makes money on the new call acquisition if the insurer’s shares increase another 11.45% to exceed the effective breakeven share price of $22.90 by expiration day in August.

IBM – International Business Machines Corp. – The computer services giant received a vote of confidence by one big bullish options player this afternoon amid a 1.7% increase in the…
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Option Bulls Buy Calls to Celebrate New Coverage of NuVasive Spinal Treatment

Today’s tickers: NUVA, TRE, FXE, BBY, DECK, LEN, AA, ESRX, JDSU & UNH

NUVA – NuVasive Inc. – The spinal surgery equipment maker’s shares are up sharply today by more than 32.50% to $39.38. NuVasive’s shares surged on news health insurance company, Aetna, is changing its policy to allow reimbursement for surgical spine treatment know as lateral interbody fusion. Bullish posturing in call options was observed today following the news about extended coverage for the treatment, which was previously excluded for being an experimental procedure. Plain-vanilla call buyers picked up nearly 2,000 contracts at the March $40 strike for an average premium of $1.34 apiece. Investors long the calls are prepared to pocket profits if NUVA’s shares rally above the effective breakeven point on the calls at $41.34 by expiration day next month.

TRE – Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp. – British Columbia, Canada-based gold mining company, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corp., attracted heavier than usual two-way trading traffic in put options today. The firm, which explores and acquires gold properties in Tanzania, realized a 2.30% rally in its shares during the session to $4.05. More than 25,000 in-the-money put options changed hands at the October $5 strike with the majority of the volume trading to the bid. Approximately 14,200 puts were sold for an average premium of $1.31 per contract, while 5,200 put contracts were purchased at that strike for roughly the same amount of premium. In-the-money put sellers are perhaps anticipating continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying by October expiration. Investors short the puts keep the full $1.31 premium per contract if TRE’s shares rally above $5.00 by expiration day. Put sellers stand ready to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $3.69 apiece in the event that the put contracts remain in-the-money through expiration day.

FXE – CurrencyShares Euro Trust – Shares of the FXE exchange-traded fund, which reflects the price of the Euro, are up 0.45% to $135.88 in afternoon trading. A decent-sized put butterfly spread on the fund indicates one investor does not expect the current rally to continue. On the contrary, the parameters of the spread benefit the trader most if shares decrease roughly 2.25% in value by April expiration. To enact the bearish butterfly play, the investor purchased 5,000 puts at the April $134 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece [wing 1], and picked…
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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday's high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day's volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we'll see how long the bull's luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight's earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we'll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday's ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won't repeat it – suffice to say
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

No change from yesterday.

We're going to be watching the same bounce levels as we were yesterday and that was 8,370 on the Dow, which was the level I predicted we'd test in the morning post and was the day's high on the morning "rally" at 10:06, after which the Dow quickly dropped 80 points.  Now, with the Dow finishing the day 16 points lower, we're going to need an even bigger boost just to hit our test zone (50 points).  Pre-markets are up about half of that but that's a pretty poor response to the OECD raising China's GDP forecast to 7.7% from 6.3% and also raised it's global outlook for members to -4.1% from -4.3% and they expect a 0.7% increase in GDP in 2010.

Aside from the fact that -4.1% still sucks, keep in mind that the OECD is like the global Chamber of Commerce whose charter is: "To achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy and to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as nonmember countries in the process of economic development."  In other words, this is like your local business council telling you it's a great time to come downtown and enjoy the fine holiday shopping – not exactly a leading economic indicator.  Is the OECD fiddling while the World burns or are they really onto something?  We'll get a better picture from the IMF, who give their mid-year forecast on July 7th as they actually wait for the half to end, rather than rushing out a statement to forestall a decaying trendline.

Even while I'm writing this (7:15) the futures are being jammed up like crazy and it looks like "THEY" don't want to risk a real test and are going to try to get a gap open above our resistance points.  Aside from Dow 8,370, we'll be looking for S&P 900, Nasdaq 1,780, NYSE 5,800 and Russell 500.  Failing those keeps us in a very serious downtrend and we still have to get past Durable Goods at 8:30, which are looking to be a bad number, probably down more than 1% from up 1.9% in April.  Redbook Retal Sales for June…
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Phil's Favorites

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the GOP's relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: ...



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Chart School

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.

The Kitchin Cycle is still working.

We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 

Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1...



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Zero Hedge

Haftar Blocks All Libyan Oil Exports Day Before Berlin Peace Conference

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Given Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar has over the past two years captured the majority of the oil and gas rich country's energy producing regions, he's now playing his biggest card yet to leverage international peace talks in his favor amid a final push for his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces to take Tripoli. 

Bloomberg reports Saturday that the Benghazi-based 'rebel' general has now "blocked oil exports at ports under his contr...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview for decades. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, Foxocracy: Inside the Network&...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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