Posts Tagged ‘leverage limits’

Congress Is Blowing It On Financial Reform (Again): Where Are The Limits On Leverage?

Did someone mention leverage? – Ilene

Congress Is Blowing It On Financial Reform (Again): Where Are The Limits On Leverage?

Courtesy of The Daily Bail

Nothing about the single most relevant factor in the blow-up.

Leverage.

Until 2004 (quick refresher) our investment banks had a leverage limit of 12:1.  After Paulson led the multi-year effort to sway the SEC to drop these rules entirely, allowing 5 banks to utilize unlimited leverage, all 5 became effectively insolvent within 4 years.

It’s the most important factor in explaining how this banking crisis was so devastating compared to previous blow-ups, and why it was so widespread — European banks were (and remain) even more leveraged than our own.

And, it’s the easiest part to fix.  Just turn the rule back to pre-2004.

There are only 2 possibilities.

  • Congress is completely, undeniably, captured by Wall Street and so they did not allow leverage limits to make their way into either the House or Senate bill?  OR
  • Congress is so flipping stupid that no one thought to propose a leverage limit?

The obvious answer is ‘captured’, but the more I consider it, the second choice of ‘just plain stupid’ is not out of the realm of possibilities. 

———-

I wrote this short post Friday night; I read this morning that Blodget had a similar thought:

  • Raise capital requirements, forcing the banks to use their tremendous profits to build big cushions against future problems instead of paying huge bonuses.  Given the forced bailouts of last year, why on earth should banks be allowed to pay out normal compensation ratios for the next few years?  Why shouldn’t they be forced to keep this money on hand for a rainy day?
  • In a just world, the way out would be to finally make the bank bondholders pay for their stupidity, converting bank debt to equity and correcting the error made last time.  In the heat of another crisis, however, the government will likely be terrified at the thought of rocking the boat and will fight tooth and nail to give bondholders another free pass.  If this proves politically impossible, the government might actually have to let some firms fail, or risk being run out of town.  And because we have yet to create a system in which banks CAN fail in an orderly


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Geithner Invokes Chicago Cubs’ Battle Cry: “Wait Till Next Year”

Geithner Invokes Chicago Cubs’ Battle Cry: "Wait Till Next Year"

Courtesy of Mish

Geithner admits banks are overleveraged but in his Orwellian world, deleveraging is the wrong thing to do because "the world is fragile".

Please consider New bank capital, leverage limits coming in 2010: Geithner.

Government officials will not set new capital and leverage standards for financial institutions until next year, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday.

"The world is a little fragile; people aren’t willing to take enough risk now, and we don’t want to do anything that would push people to delever," Geithner said to Fox News Sunday anchor Chris Wallace at an event in Washington hosted by the Atlantic magazine in partnership with the Aspen Institute and the Newseum. "We’ll have the agreement on the numbers, but it won’t happen until next year; in the absence of fragility."

Geithner acknowledged that existing bank-capital restrictions were "too low and easily evaded."

"It’s going to take a while to come out of this because we are saving more money, something we have to do," he commented. "Growth is going to be slower coming out of this, and it is a reasonable expectation that this is going to take a while."

"It’s not a tenable situation for the government to be in the business of running large parts of the economy, and we won’t do it," Geithner said.

Geithner finished speaking the same way he always does, with a lie.

"We won’t do it" is a blatant lie. The government has its direct hand in autos, banks, insurance companies, stock brokers, home builders, and the entire mortgage industry.

The first thing any regulator in his right mind would do would be to dissolve Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA. Instead, leverage was increased to allow loans up to 125% of assessed value and the mortgage lenders of only resort are the GSEs and the FHA.

It was idiotic to take over AIG yet the government did. Cash for clunkers was economic idiocy but the government did that too. Ditto for screwing GM bondholders in favor if the union. We had to do those things under the guise "things were too fragile".

"We’ll have the agreement on the numbers, but it won’t happen until next year; in the absence of fragility."

Chicago Cubs Battle Cry

It’s October, and


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Phil's Favorites

Your electronic health data: Understanding the different records, systems and how they connect

 

Your electronic health data: Understanding the different records, systems and how they connect

A partnership between Google and the Ascension hospital network in the United States has raised health data privacy concerns for citizens globally. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Tracie Risling, University of Saskatchewan

Many Canadians are not connected to their electronic health information. But this is not because there is a shortage of these records. You likely have multiple digital health files, some you may not be aware of, and many you may not have access to.

There are increasing calls for Canada to create a single co...



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Zero Hedge

Watch: SpaceX's Starship Prototype Dramatically Explodes On Launch Platform

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The first beta test of Elon Musk's "Starship" Mark 1 prototype didn't quite go exactly as planned unless, of course, the plan was for it to explode on the launch pad. The prototype, which was built as a "pathfinder for SpaceX's planned human-rated Starship rocket" literally saw its top explode during a pressurization test on Wednesday, according to CBS and - well, video that shows exactly that. 

Th...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Busts Below $8,000 To One-Month Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Another sea of red across cryptos this morning after tumbling in early European trading (it's been an ugly 7 days as the image below shows)...

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin Cash is leading the decline on the week along with Litecoin...

Source: Bloomberg

But Bictoin's psychological plunge to a $7k handle is most notable...

Source: Bloomberg

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds About To Send Stocks A Bearish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are junk bonds about to send stocks an important message? It looks like it from this chart!

Junk Bond ETF (JNK) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past couple of years, inside of falling channel (1). When it broke support in early 2018 at (2), stocks struggled to make much upward progress for the next few months.

The rally off support last year saw JNK hit falling resistance a few months ago and some softness has set in. The small decline of late has it testing a series of higher lows at (3).

What JNK does at (3), looks to sen...



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Insider Scoop

PayPal Will Buy Honey Science For $4B

Courtesy of Benzinga

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is acquiring Honey Science Corp for $4 billion.

Honey Science Corp was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Los Angeles. Honey helps people automatically find online coupons and discounts while ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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