Posts Tagged ‘LOW’

Traders Feast On CROX, YUM Call Options

 

Today’s tickers: CROX, YUM & LOW

CROX - Crocs, Inc. – The tail may be wagging the dog at casual footwear maker, Crocs, Inc., today with heavy trading traffic in August expiry calls preceding a sharp upside move in the price of the underlying early in the trading session. The stock fell 1.9% at the open and continued to trade in negative territory until a burst of call activity at approximately 9:40 a.m. saw the stock bounce off its lows and gain as much as 6.3% to $15.03. Upwards of 3,500 option contracts have changed hands on CROX thus far in the session, with more than nine calls trading for each put option in play. In- and out-of-the-money calls expiring in August are seeing the most action, with some 1,900 in-the-money contracts purchased for an average premium of $1.00 each at the $14 strike. Another 2,000 contracts traded to the middle of the market at the Aug. $15 strike at an average premium of $0.58 apiece, while 825 calls were picked up at the $16 strike for a premium of $0.30 per contract. The trader or traders responsible for the activity may be positioning for shares to rise following the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Wednesday after the final bell.

YUM - YUM! Brands, Inc. – The operator of fast food restaurant chains KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, reports second-quarter earnings after the final bell this afternoon. Call spreads initiated on YUM this morning suggests one trader is prepared to profit should shares in the name post single-digit gains ahead of July expiration later in the week. China growth concerns, the crisis in Europe and flagging U.S. consumer confidence have weighed on YUM shares in recent months, with the stock currently down 13% off the April 20th all-time high of $74.44. The stock today, however, is in positive territory with shares in the name up 1.1% at $65.13 just before midday in New York.…
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Lowe’s Weeklies Active As Shares Tumble

 

Today’s tickers: LOW, CBE & AIG

LOW - Lowe’s Companies, Inc. – Shares in Lowe’s were hammered Monday after the home improvement retailer lowered its full-year earnings forecast and reported a smaller-than-expected increase in same-store sales. The stock is currently down 9.7% at $25.72 as of 12:30 p.m. ET following the company’s first-quarter earnings report this morning. Options activity in the front month is mixed, with some traders positioning for the stock to rebound, while others brace for further downside in the near term. Strategists constructing positions that benefit from a recovery in the shares homed in on the June $27 strike call, trading upwards of 5,800 contracts versus open interest of 18 positions. It looks like most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.45 apiece, thus positioning longs to profit should LOW’s shares rally 6.7% to top $27.45 by June expiration. Meanwhile, put buying at the June $25 strike points to near-term bearish sentiment on the stock. Traders exchanged more than 2,300 of the $25 strike put options, purchasing most of the volume at an average premium of $0.65 each. The strategy may be profitable at expiration next month should Lowe’s shares decline another 5.3% to breach the average breakeven price of $24.35. Options volume of 30,715 on the second-largest U.S. home improvement retailer this afternoon today runs at twice the 90-day average options volume for the name.

CBE - Cooper Industries PLC – Shares in the Maynooth, Ireland-based maker of electrical products and tools rallied nearly 30.0% to a record-high of $71.73 today after diversified power management company, Eaton Corp., agreed to buy Cooper Industries in a cash and stock deal valued at $11.8 billion. Options on Cooper are more active than usual with just fewer than 800 contracts in play as of 1:00 p.m. ET versus the 90-day average options volume on the stock of 91 contracts. Open interest in July expiry call options on CBE suggests one…
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Traders Construct Bullish Positions On Lowe’s, Ratio Call Spreads On REITs

Today’s tickers: LOW, GGP & AVB

LOW - LOW – Lowe’s Companies, Inc. – Home improvement retailer, Lowe’s Companies, has been on a tear during the past six months, with the price of the shares up 63.0% since October. The stock currently trades flat on the day at $30.24 after earlier rallying to a four-year high of $30.60 at the open. A burst of call buying on LOW this morning suggests at least one strategist expects the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term. Most of the day’s volume in Lowe’s Cos. options changed hands at the April $32 strike, where more than 11,000 calls traded against open interest of 730 contracts. It looks like the majority of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.32 per contract this morning. Call buyers make money at expiration next month as long as LOW’s shares rally another 6.9% to exceed the average breakeven price of $32.32.

GGP - General Growth Properties, Inc. – Options activity on shopping mall REIT, General Growth Properties, Inc., as well as activity in AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a REIT that owns and operates multifamily communities, suggests one or more traders are positioning for shares in these names to increase during the next six months. Shares in GGP, one of the largest shopping mall REITs, may rally to fresh 52-week highs in the next six months, according to a sizable ratio call spread initiated in the first 30 minutes of the session. The stock surrendered earlier modest gains to trade 0.65% lower on the day at $16.76 as of 11:15 a.m. in New York. Shares are up 10.0% year-to-date. It looks like one trader initiated a ratio call spread, buying 3,000 calls at the Oct. $16 strike and selling 6,000 calls up…
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Bulls Take the Wheel, Initiate Recovery Plays Using Ford Options

Today’s tickers: F, TOL, BRCD, LOW, NUAN, WAG & IFF

F - Ford Motor Co. – The automaker’s shares edged 2.45% lower this afternoon to $15.80, but investors expecting to see Ford rebound and rally in the next few months initiated bullish plays using put and call options expiring in February 2011. It looks like one trader purchased a bull call spread, while another investor put on a bullish risk reversal. The call spreader picked up 5,000 contracts at the February 2011 $16 strike for a premium of $1.24 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher February 2011 $20 strike for a premium of $0.20 apiece. Net premium paid to establish the spread amounts to $1.04 per contract. Thus, the responsible party is prepared to make money should shares in Ford Motor Co. surge 7.85% over the current price of $15.80 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $17.04 by February expiration. The call-spreader could end up walking away with maximum potential profits of $2.96 per contract if Ford’s shares jump 26.6% to trade above $20.00 by expiration day next year. The other bullish play in the February 2011 contract appears to be the work of an investor selling 1,990 February 2011 $15 strike puts at a premium of $0.69 each in order to purchase the same number of February 2011 $18 strike calls for a premium of $0.50 a-pop. The transaction results in a net credit of $0.19 per contract, which the investor keeps as long as shares in Ford exceed $15.00 through expiration. Additional profits start to accrue for the trader should shares rally 13.9% to trade above $18.00 before the contracts expire. The net credit received by the investor provides limited downside protection should shares continue to head south. The investor will face losses, however, if Ford’s shares trade below the effective breakeven price of $14.81 in the next few months to expiration.…
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GDPhriday – Low Expectations Could Make for a Good Day

Everyone is down on the GDP all of a sudden

As I related Wednesday - the GDP, like the Beige Book report (which we expected to be poor) is made up of many factors like Trade Balance (same), Government Spending (up due to census), Personal Consumption (earnings reports indicate up), Residential Investment (HD and LOW indicate up), Corporate Earnings (way up),etc.  The biggest etcetera is Inventories and they are a major wildcard.  As near as I can tell, April was a very enthusiastic month and we began May with the "flash crash" but that was shaken off so I have no reason to think orders didn’t continue to outpace inventory through mid-may at least

We did, as we discussed, get the best Beige Book in 2 years in early June so I’ve gotta go with expecting two months of inventory builds that trail off sharply as merchandise went unsold in early June as the market collapsed and even the top 10% stopped shopping for a couple of days.  Still, it seems to me that that was too late in the month to knock GDP below 2.7% and I think we still have an excellent shot at 3%. 

We’ll find out shortly but Asia didn’t wait and had a pity party this morning with the Nikkei giving up all of the week’s gains, back at 9,537 so I’m still loving EWJ if we head higer but, if not, look for the Dow to begin filling that gap!  The Hang Seng was choppy but held 21,000 and the Shanghai can afford to take a break at 2,637.  India continues to be our top global concern as the Bombay Sensex continues to move to test the rising 50 dma as they fall to 17,868 and it looks like they’ll meet up next week in the 17,600s and that will be a very critical test. 

Samsung knocked the ball out of the park with an 83% jump to record profits on amazingly strong memory chip sales.  We can probably thank 64-Gig Smartphones and IPads for much of that gain but, holy cow!  Net income climbed to 4,280,000,000,000 – too bad that was Won ($3.6Bn) but not bad considering our own chip giant, INTC, only hit $2.4Bn last Q.  Despite lower chip prices, revenue was up 17% and I’ve already mentioned that Samsung has pledged $20Bn to become the World’s #1 solar power provider so you’ve gotta love these guys
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Gold Bull Buys Butterfly Spread

Today’s tickers: GLD, AA, KR, AMD, HAL, LOW, CTRP, STR & LPX

GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – Gilded butterfly wings unfurled in the July contract on the GLD, an exchange-traded fund designed to mirror the performance of the price of gold bullion, in afternoon trading with shares of the underlying fund flying 1.30% higher at a new 52-week high of $122.24. Options investors exchanged more than 478,100 contracts on the gold fund as of 3:35 pm (ET). Overall, trading action on the GLD was dominated by bullish players tossing around more than 2 call options to each single put option in play today. One bullish individual expecting the price of gold bullion to continue to appreciate in the next few months purchased a call butterfly spread in the July contract. The investor picked up 6,500 calls at the July $123 strike for an average premium of $4.40 each [wing 1], in combination with the purchase of 6,500 calls at the higher July $143 strike for $0.63 apiece [wing 2]. The third leg of the trade centered at the July $133 strike where 13,000 calls were sold for a premium of $1.59 a-pop [body]. The net cost of the spread amounts to $1.85 per contract and represents maximum loss potential assumed by the investor responsible for the transaction. Shares of the GLD must rally at least 2.15% over the new 52-week high of $122.24 before the investor starts to make money above the effective breakeven price of $124.85. Maximum potential profits of $8.15 per contract are available to the trader should shares of the underlying fund surge 8.80% to settle at $133.00 by July expiration. The spread is a very efficient way for this individual to take a bullish stance because the potential rewards are 4.4 times greater than potential losses.

AA – Alcoa, Inc. – The sale of a large chunk of June contract call options may be the work of an optimistic investor initiating a covered call on the stock. The aluminum maker’s shares are currently up 2.80% to $12.47 with 10 minutes remaining the session. It looks like one investor sold 19,000 calls at the June $13 strike for a premium of $0.42 apiece at around 1:06:16 pm (ET) when shares of the underlying stock were trading at $12.45 each. If the calls were sold in combination with the purchase of 1.9 million shares of stock –…
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Monday Medical Miracle – Health Care Finally Passes

Paul Krugman summed it up nicely:

There is, as always, a tunnel at the end of the tunnel: We’ll spend years if not decades fixing this thing.

Love it or hate it, the US has just taken a big step towards nationalized health care so maybe now we can finally stop talking about it and move on with the investing!  I think medical devices (IHI) should do well with 32M new patients – that's a play we made quite a while ago though and, like pretty much everything else in this market – they look a little toppy. 

As I noted in the Weekend Wrap-Up, we came to the decision to get back to cash on Friday, removing all uncovered bullish bets and adding our disaster plays, no longer hedges (as there's not much to hedge) but as bets that the Global markets are due for a little correction at this point.  I'm already feeling good about the decision as the futures look awful this morning (8am) as the Hang Seng dropped 2% (437 points) and couldn't get back over 21,000 during the session and has now given up all of March's gains.  The Dow is still up about 400 points in March as well – hopefully our fall won't be as violent as what the Hang Seng saw this morning.  India held up well, only losing 1% after Friday's surprise rate increase. 

The Dollar was very strong after the Health Care vote and we're sitting below $1.50 to the Pound and we've bounced off $1.35 to the Euro twice this morning – a break below there could get very interesting!  The Yen is staying down at 90.5 to the Dollar, which is a relief for Japanese exporters but I'm not sure they'll hold 90 this week.  Copper broke below $3.40 on Friday – confirming our bearish turn and is at $3.32 this morning.  Gold once again is testing $1,100 and silver failed $17 at $16.82 with $16.50 being a bearish signal for metals.  Oil dropped all the way to $79.31 this morning and we'll see if they can get back over $80 but we are going to be thrilled with our short plays (see wrap-up) in that sector

Risk aversion has come up after developments in India and Greece,” said Henrik Gullberg, a fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Bank…
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Options Trader Constructs Bullish Risk Reversal on SandRidge Energy, Inc.

Today’s tickers: SD, DTV, YHOO, SLXP, MDVN, PDCO, XLE, LOW, AIG & CA

SD – SandRidge Energy, Inc. – A bullish risk reversal on natural gas and oil exploration and development company, SandRidge Energy, Inc., suggests one investor may be positioning for a rally in the value of the underlying shares by expiration in June. SandRidge’s shares slipped 0.50% during the session to stand at $8.52. The trader sold 10,000 put options at the June $7.5 strike for an average premium of $0.53 apiece in order to offset the cost of buying 10,000 calls at the higher June $9.0 strike for $0.90 each. The net cost of the reversal play amounts to $0.37 per contract. Shares of the energy firm must rally approximately 10% over the current day’s price in order for the trader to break even on the transaction at $9.37. Profits are available to the upside beyond the breakeven point at $9.37 through expiration day in June.

DTV – The DIRECTV Group, Inc. – Investors sold strangles on the subscription television services company today amidst a 0.55% rally in the price of the underlying stock to $33.83. The use of the short strangle strategy implies traders anticipate reduced volatility in the price of DTV shares and expect the share price to remain range-bound through expiration in June. Throughout the trading session options traders sold approximately 15,000 calls at the June $35 strike for an average premium of $1.77 apiece in combination with the sale of 15,000 puts at the lower June $30 strike for a premium of $0.78 each. Strangle-sellers pocket a gross premium of $2.55 per contract, which they keep if Directv’s share price trades within the range of $30.00 to $35.00 through expiration. The premium received on the transaction provides limited protection against losses should DTV’s shares swing outside of the strike prices described. Stranglers accumulate losses if shares of Directv trade above the upper breakeven price of $37.55, or if shares decline beneath the lower breakeven point at $27.45, by expiration day.

YHOO – Yahoo!, Inc. – The slight 0.15% decline in the price of Yahoo’s shares to $15.55 today did not some options traders from establishing bullish stances on the stock. One individual initiated a bullish risk reversal to position for a rebound in shares by expiration in January of 2011. The investor sold 15,000 put options at the January 2011 $15 strike for…
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Prior Weekly Wrap-Up – February Expiration Day Special!

I didn't get to do a wrap-up last week so we have a lot of trades to go over and, with expiration looming and the Fed tightening, I thought it would be good to just get the list out on Friday so we can adjust our rolls to March where neccessary (in bold under appropriate positions).

In our Feb 7th Wrap-Up, I was gung-ho bullish saying "It's Only a 55-Point Drop You Wimps!" and we had  been BUYBUYBUYing at the bottom all week, especially Wed-Fri as the market spiked through our projected support at Dow 10,000 but not enough to change our minds as we bottom-fished on AAPL (2 trades), ABX, ACOR, AKAM, AMED, BRK/B (2), C, CCJ (3), CSCO, DELL, FXI, GE,  GOOG, IBM, LLY, LOW, NLY, TBT (5 times!), TM (3), TNA, USO (yep, we wen long oil) and UYG.  To say we were weigting bullish by that Monday was an understatement as we has finished the weekend in a bullish stance and were relying on our disaster hedges to protect us

Those disaster hedges are an interesting set to look at, especially now that we've recovered 400 points:

  • DXD July $27/33 bull call spread at $2.50, now $2 – down 20%

    • We can roll the $27 calls to the $25 calls for $5 to widen the spread and drop our b/e from $29.50 to $28.50
  • EDZ July $3/8 bull call spread at $2.10, now $1.60 - down 23%
  • EDZ Apr $10 calls sold for .70, now .15 – up 78% (pair trade)
  • SDS 2011 $36/40 bull call spread at $1.30, now $1 – down 18%

    • We can roll the $36 calls to the $33 calls for $1.10
  • TBT Jan $35/45 bull call spread at $6.30, now $7.40 - up 17%
  • TBT March $50s sold for .65, now $1.22 – down 87% (pair trade)

This is what is great about disaster hedges.  The potential upside on these spreads, if the market headed south was up about 100% on the 4 trades so a commitment of 5% of your virtual portfolio to each one (20%) would give you back 40% of your virtual portfolio in cash if the markets tanked.  Already, after 2 weeks, we have the markets heading in the opposite direction and what is the cost?  Not even 20% of…
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Wintery Wednesday – Are We Now Corrected?

Was that it?

A 10% correction (David Fry chart on right) and we’re done?  If so, this is still a fairly bullish market, and it should be, as our sell-off last year was, beyond a doubt, way overdone.  Often people forget the fundamentals of investing and the biggest fundamental of them all is: "Where else are you going to put your money?"  There many fine companies out there with P/E ratios that are below 15.  That means if you give them a dollar, they will return 6.6% in earnings.  IBM has a PE of 12, which is an 8.3% return on my money and, according to projections, that will improve to 11 next year, generating 9 cents for each dollar I give them

Call me an optimist but I think IBM is a fairly safe place to keep my money.  Perhaps as safe as 4% TBills, or 7% Greek bonds or 3% Yen Notes or, Heaven forbid, a bank!  In fact, not many banks are paying 1.8% on your deposits but IBM does through dividends.  IBM was my example trade in the Weeekend Wrap-Up so I won’t get into strategies here but that is what our whole Buy List is about – picking up great long-term values and hedging them to even more effective entries.  

Not every stock is as rock solid as IBM but (going back to the Wrap-Up) who did we buy when the chips were down last week?  C, CCJ, TBT, GOOG, XLF, AAPL, AMED, CSCO, TM, LOW, AKAM, LLY, NLY, GE, TNA, USO, ABX, DELL, FXI, UYG, BRK/B.  Not exactly a radical collection of picks is it?  Yesterday, with the market up 2.5% from our shopping spree – we bought NOTHING.  Part of the "buy low – sell high" philosophy is waiting for the market to be either high or low.  Two weeks ago, on Jan 29th, I charted 10,058 on the Dow as a critical support line and, from our Buy List Update this weekend, I put up the following chart for Members:

And where did we finish yesterday on the Dow?  10,058.  See, this charting thing is easy – that’s why I don’t usually bother, it’s dullsville!  Let’s now turn our attention to our other major levels of 10,165 and 10,300 which, keep in mind, is nothing more than our predicted "weak bounce" off the drop from 10,700.  As I said in the above chart, we can expect
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Zero Hedge

Hong Kong Protests Go Global: China Demands Investigation After Lam's Justice Minister Wounded In London

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Chinese officials slammed American lawmakers who are advancing a bill designed to protest Hong Kong's quasi-independent status guaranteed by the legal handover agreement between the British and the Chinese, but the US isn't the only major western power that's creating problems with the increasing dangerous situation in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's Justice Minister Teresa Cheng took a nasty tumble last night during a confrontation with pro-democracy sympathizers who came out to protest her presence in London. ...



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Phil's Favorites

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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The Technical Traders

What happens To The Global Economy If Oil Collapses Below $40 - Part II

Courtesy of Technical Traders

In the first part of this research article, we shared our ADL predictive modeling research from July 10th, 2019 where we suggested that Oil prices would begin to collapse to levels near, or below, $40 throughout November and December of 2019.  Our ADL modeling system suggests that oil prices may continue lower well into early 2020 where the price is exp...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Insider Scoop

What Wall Street Thinks Of Google Cache

Courtesy of Benzinga

Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) subsidiary Google announced a new partnership with Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to launc...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Testing This Support For The First Time In 8-Years!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Its been a good while since Silver bulls could say that it is testing support. Well, this week that can be said! Will this support test hold? Silver Bulls sure hope so!

This chart looks at Silver Futures over the past 10-years. Silver has spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of the pink shaded falling channel, as it has created lower highs and lower lows.

Silver broke above the top of this falling channel around 90-days ago at (1). It quickly rallied over 15%, before creating a large bearish reversal pattern, around 5-weeks after the bre...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Today's Fed POMO TOMO FOMC Alphabet Soup Unspin

Courtesy of Lee Adler

But make no mistake, if the Fed wants money rates to stay down by another quarter, it will need to imagineer even more money.

That’s on top of the $281 billion it has already imagineered into existence since addressing its “one-off” repo market emergency on September 17. This came via  “Temporary” Repo Man Operations money, and $70.6 billion in Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) money.

By my calculations that averages out to $7.4 billion per business day. That works out to a monthly pace of $155 billion or so.

If they keep this up, it will be more than enough to absorb every penny of new Treasury supply. That supply had caused the system to run out of money in mid September.  This flood of paper had been inundati...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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