Posts Tagged ‘market sentiment’

Reflections On Market Sentiment

Reflections On Market Sentiment

Courtesy of Mish

Trader’s Narrative has some interesting charts and commentary about market sentiment which suggests a great deal of bullish complacency among the bulls and resignation for the bears.

Here is one of the charts from the article.
 

click on chart for sharper image

Both of the popular weekly sentiment surveys are in agreement showing an extremely bullish mood, which should make any contrarian stand up and take notice. It now stands two standard deviations below its 1 year average. The AAII weekly sentiment survey of retail investors in the US has only 23% bears and a whopping 49% bulls. The AAII ratio hasn’t been this lopsided since May 2008 when the S&P 500 topped out at 1440.

Similarly, the Investors Intelligence survey of newsletter editors has plumbed new depths from last week and reached a new record. We haven’t seen this few bears in 22 years! The II finished off the year with only 15.6% of editors looking forward to lower stock market prices and 51.1% optimistically looking forward to the continuation of the rally.

The keepers of the Investors Intelligence survey, Mike Burke and John Gray, believe that while “some additional gains may occur in the near term, stocks may peak in the first quarter of next year and correct from there.” Smoothing out the weekly results with a 10 week average of the bulls divided by the bulls and bears shows that the market is overbought by 71% – the last time it was at similar lofty levels was back in late July 2007.

There are three other charts in the article and much more analysis. Inquiring minds may wish to take a look.

My friend "BC" who sent me the link writes "Today’s increasingly bullish sentiment is consistent with a B (or 2) wave, which would imply a setup for the most destructive (for financial wealth and confidence) phase of a C-wave decline, lasting 2-3 years. "

What "BC" is describing is similar to the sucker bounce in the early 1930 after the stock market crash of 1929.

I am pleased to inform that "BC" has partially come out of the closet. He is now blogging anonymously at the Economics of Oil Empire and Peak Oil blog.

Here is a link to his post


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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Is blockchain all hype? A financier and supply chain expert discuss

 

Is blockchain all hype? A financier and supply chain expert discuss

Iaremenko Sergii/Shutterstock.com

Coutesy of Carlos Cordon, IMD Business School and Arturo Bris, IMD Business School

This is an article from Head to Head, a series in which academics from different disciplines chew over current debates. ...



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Digital Currencies

Is blockchain all hype? A financier and supply chain expert discuss

 

Is blockchain all hype? A financier and supply chain expert discuss

Iaremenko Sergii/Shutterstock.com

Coutesy of Carlos Cordon, IMD Business School and Arturo Bris, IMD Business School

This is an article from Head to Head, a series in which academics from different disciplines chew over current debates. ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Let's review the Dow Jones Industrial Gann Angles and its secret sauce dominate cycle.

Dow Jones hit upper resistance Gann angle early 2019, a sell of followed, now the bounce works its way through the down ward Gann Angle, a fail at either make or break point will see the bounce sell off, and that may get very interesting!


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This cycle has worked for over 100 years, now we much watch the rest of 2019 to see if we get any more downward pressure. This cycle was found using readtheticker.com ...

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Zero Hedge

IMF Discreetly Preps Massive Aid Package For "Day After" Maduro's Fall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The International Monetary Fund is reportedly making plans for the "day after" embattled President Nicolas Maduro's fall, according to Bloomberg. Though there's been little momentum in military defections following US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido's offer of amnesty to any army officer that switches loyalties, Washington sanctions have effectively strangled state-owned PDVSA's access to global markets. News of IMF maneuvering also comes amidst fresh reports the US is amassing aircraft, troops and armored vehicles on the Venezuelan border under the pretext ...



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ValueWalk

Quantitative Easing....Forever!

By CapitalTrading. Originally published at ValueWalk.

What is becoming obvious now is the fact that the global central banks can no longer hide the fact that without their QE and balance sheet expansion, asset prices would fall and economies would reverse. The last month or so has seen a huge reversal in the markets expectations for future rate hikes and one by which certainly shouldn’t have surprised any of our readers. We have used and will continue to use the #QE4EVR theme as basically we are and will all continue to be bound to the low interest rate to negative rate environment. We aren’t stupid…

Anyway, let’s look at the latest headlines and make some comments (headlines and charts are from D.Wienke of Cabrera Capital)

  • U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES FALL 1.2% M/M, BIGGEST DROP SINCE 2009
  • PPI Growth S...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gasoline bullish breakout could fuel higher prices, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are we about to pay much higher prices at the gas pump? Possible!

This chart looks at Gasoline futures over the past 4-years. Gasoline has become much cheaper at the pump, as it fell nearly 50% from the May 2018 highs. The decline took it down to test 2016 & 2017 lows at (1). While testing these lows, Gasoline could be forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern over the past few months.

Joe Friday Just The Facts- If Gasoline breaks out at (2), we could all see higher prices at the gas pump. If a breakout does...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For February 15, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) to report quarterly earnings at $1.49 per share on revenue of $19.52 billion before the opening bell. PepsiCo shares rose 0.2 percent to $112.82 in after-hours trading.
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported upbe...


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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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