Posts Tagged ‘MAT’

Monday Market Outlook – Finally Over S&P 2,000 – Now What?

SPY 5 MINUTE2,000 finally held!  

It was a really ugly hold but we did hold 2,000 on the S&P all day long on Friday and that, as I've said for a long time, is finally a signal we need to do a little bottom-fishing.  We have already been picking up some material stocks in our Live Member Chat Room, including adding BTU ($13.29) on Friday morning to our Income Portfolio, despite a Goldman Sachs downgrade that cost them 5% pre-market.

Coal has been getting a bad rap this year as China has slowed down and, of course, its environmentally unpopular (and 300,000 people marched in NYC this weekend for action on Climate Change) but the reality is, coal use isn't going away anytime soon.  

In fact, 65% of China's energy comes from coal and, for the first time ever, China passed the EU in pollution levels per capita with each person in China producing 7.2 tons of carbon dioxide on average compared with 6.8 tons per European and just 1.9 tons per Indian.  

Of course, none of them hold a candle to the US, where we proudly produce 16.4 tons of CO2 per person!  

Still, with 1.3Bn people, China has now passed the US in overall carbon emissions, contributing to a new Global Record of 40Bn tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 2014.  According to a recent UN study, at this rate, the theoretical limit for carbon in our atmosphere (before irreversible damage sets in) will be hit in just 30 years.  But don't worry folks, that's just science and we can always vote Republican and ignore it. cheeky

Remember – we ARE Koch!  

Emissions grew 4.2 percent in China, 2.9 percent in the U.S. and 5.1 percent in India last year. The EU’s pollution level declined 1.8 percent because of weaker economic growth.  So coal is not going away as soon as people think and we have been literally burning off the surplus this year.  In Europe, utilities are switching back
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Denbury Options In Play Ahead Of Q3 Earnings Report

DNR – Denbury Resources Inc. – Oil and natural gas producer Denbury Resources popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner today amid heavier than usual trading in upside call options ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Tuesday. Shares in DNR are up better than 2.0% at midday to stand at $19.30.

The Nov $20 strike calls are the most traded options on Denbury today, with volume currently above 6,400 contracts versus previously existing open interest of 1,076 calls. Traders appear to have purchased most of the $20 calls this morning for an average premium of $0.32 each. Buyers of the calls may profit at expiration next week if shares in Denbury Resources.

MAT – Mattel Inc. – Shares in Mattel are on the rise today, rallying as much as 2.0% to $45.70 in the first half of the trading day. Options changing hands on the maker of Barbie dolls and board games suggests some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term.

The most traded options on MAT today are the Nov $45 strike calls, with upwards of 3,000 contracts in play against open interest of 610 contracts. Time and sales data indicates most of the $45 calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.74 each. Traders long the calls stand ready to profit at expiration this month in the event that Mattel’s shares settle above the average breakeven price of $45.74. 

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Bullish Options In Play At UPS

 

Today’s tickers: UPS, MAT & SGMS

UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. – Shares in UPS are off their lows of the session this afternoon, down just 0.05% to stand at $76.28 as of 12:20 p.m. ET. The stock joined in the strong broad-based rally in equities this week after U.S. lawmakers finally came to a last-minute agreement to avoid drastic spending cuts and tax increases. Options traders positioning for shares in UPS to increase significantly during the first half of this year appear to be picking up July expiry calls. It looks like traders exchanged upwards of 10,900 calls at the July $77.5 strike this morning versus open interest of 3,731, and purchased most of the contracts for an average premium of $2.73 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at July expiration should shares in UPS increase more than 5% to top the average breakeven price of $80.23. Shares in the name last traded above $80.23 in July 2012. UPS reports fourth-quarter earnings four weeks from today.

MAT - Mattel, Inc. – Toy maker, Mattel, Inc., popped up on our market scanners today following heavy volume in the February expiry put options. Shares in the name are currently down 0.30% on the day to stand at $36.70, but closed out 2012 up better than 30% for the year. Some of the trading traffic in MAT puts today may be the work of strategists locking in gains and bracing for possible declines in the price of the underlying after the company reports fourth-quarter earnings at the end of January. Traders exchanged approximately 2,100 in-the-money puts at the Feb. $38 strike, buying most of the contracts at an average premium of $2.00 apiece. These contracts start making money if shares in Mattel dip below the average breakeven price of $36.00 by expiration next month. The Feb. $36 strike calls are in play today as well, with around 1,800 lots purchased for an average premium of $0.97 each. Traders long the $36 strike put options may profit at February expiration should Mattel’s shares slide 4.6% from the…
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PSW Rewind of 2009 – The First Quarter

Thursday's close was very exciting, wasn't it?

Well it sure was for us as my 10:01 Alert to Members was a play on the DIA Jan $103 puts at .56.  Thanks to the late afternoon dip, they finished the day at .90 (up 60%) after peaking out at .95, a very nice win to close off the year.  That was the only Alert trade all week as this market has been too tough to call and we don't make trades just for the hell of it.  I had been sniping at DIA puts all week expecting a pay-off but Thursday it finally came together.

Of course, I also strongly advocated hedging on Thursday morning and listed 4 trade ideas in the morning post to hedge ourselves against the possibility of just such a drop so don't say you haven't been warned.  Whether there will be follow-through on Monday or a full reversal remains to be seen and, even if I knew, I wouldn't tell you here because this is a review – predictions are another article entirely

We treaded very cautiously into last year because our PSW Holiday Retail Survey was not looking very pretty so it was no surprise to us, on Dec 26th, when we got some horrific retail reports.  These are, of course, the same reports that we "beat" this year – but not by much.  Dec 29th was Monday and Israeli jets attacked Hamas targets in the Gaza sending oil flying up to $48 a barrel.  That gave us a nice commodity rally into the close of the year but January 2nd was a Friday and we decided (fortunately) to take the money and run on our long plays, holding open our main cover of SKF Jan $120s at $4.35, which hit $80 later in the month (up 1,732%) and USO Feb $32 puts at $3.40, which hit $10.50 in the Feb dip (up 208%) so, on the whole, not too differently positioned than we are now, coming into the new year.  Visually 2009 looked a little like this:

January – Waiting for Obama, or Something, to Change

We began January much the same way we ended December with my Wed Jan
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up

Wheee – that was fun!

Last week, I asked the question were we "Too Bearish or Just Too Early?"  I said in that wrap-up: "This Friday the market topped out about 150 points higher than last Friday, closer to the top of our range so we went much more bearish on Friday, perhaps too bearish considering this was the best Friday finish since Nov 6th and we haven’t had a down Monday since October 26th."  We did get the move up we feared on Monday but we stuck to our guns and had a fabulous week.

Even as the market was going against us Monday morning, my first Alert of the week to members at 9:44 said: "I’m still more inclined to look downward at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,200 and Russell 600…  I’m still bearish because oil is weak, gold is weak, the financials (XLF at 14.30) are weak and most of the good news we are hearing is nothing but fluff."  That was a pretty good call as we hit our target levels yesterday and held them, so we flipped more bullish right at 11:30 on Friday, in what was some very good timing for our intra-day play. 

We are still on a stock market roller coaster that's going to have plenty of ups and down in the thin, holiday trading that will likely characterize the end of the year.  The market will be closed 2 Fridays in a row and good luck finding people around this Thursday or the next one so 6 proper trading days left to 2009 at best.  We got out – that drop was very satisfying and we've moved mainly to cash (our $100K Virtual Portfolio has $88,000 in cash at $107,249 at the end of it's first month).  Last week we were able to cash out the bull side, this week we got satisfaction from our bear plays and that leaves us footloose and fancy free to have fun the next two weeks.  If our day trading goes as well as it did on Friday, we can end this year with quite a bang.

Manic Monday – Dubai, CitiGroup and GS Move Markets

This picture says it all.  When you want to blow smoke
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Phil's Favorites

What if GDP falls more than the stock market?

 

What if GDP falls more than the stock market?

Courtesy of 

In the last recession, GDP contracted by less than 5%, but the stock market fell 57% from peak to trough. Stocks reacted to economic conditions in a way the “real” economy did not.

In our present situation, Wall Street strategists are predicting a second quarter contraction for the economy of up to 30% (annualized), which the drop in stock prices have already achieved.

Michael and Ben sort out some important distinctions between the stock market’s historic reaction to recessions and the recessions themselves…

  ...



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Zero Hedge

Trump Says "No Quarantine Necessary" For NY, NJ And CT As US Death Toll Tops 2,000: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • Global case total tops 600k
  • Global COVID-19 death toll tops 30k
  • US death toll tops 2k
  • After Trump earlier said he was weighing enforceable quarantine order for all the tri-state area, late on Sunday he said that "on the recommendation of the White House CoronaVirus Task Force, and upon consultation with the Governor’s of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut" he would not be imposing a quarantine. ...


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Biotech/COVID-19

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the on...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Insider Scoop

'Psyched': Hawaii Considers Resolution For Shrooms, Champignon Eyes Ketamine Products

Courtesy of Benzinga

Psyched is a bi-monthly column covering the most important developments in the industry of medicinal psychedelics. We hope you follow us periodically as we report on the growth of this exciting new industry.

Champignon Brands Buys IP Company and Adds Ketamine and New Formulations To Its Portfolio

On March 19, Champignon Brands Inc. (CSE: SHRM) (OTC: SHRMF), a Canadian healt...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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Members' Corner

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

 

Bloody Mob Sh*t: An Interview with Lincoln's Bible

We talk Trump, Mogilevich, Epstein, Giuliani, Fred Trump, Roy Cohn, and more.

Courtesy of Greg Olear at PREVAIL, author of Dirty Rubles: An Introduction to Trump/Russia

(Originally published on Feb. 21, 20.)

...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.