Posts Tagged ‘monetary system’

A DEFLATIONARY RED FLAG IN THE $U.S. DOLLAR

A DEFLATIONARY RED FLAG IN THE $U.S. DOLLAR

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Red Flag against Blue Sky

If the chart below doesn’t grab your attention then few things will. In my opinion, the performance of the dollar is the surest evidence of the kind of environment we’re currently in. The surging dollar is a clear sign that inflation is not the concern of global investors. This is almost a sure sign that deflation is once again gripping the global economy and should be setting off red flags for equity investors around the world.

The recent action in the dollar is eerily reminiscent of the peak worries in the credit crisis when deflation appeared to be taking a death grip on the global economy and demand for dollars was extremely high. The recent 16% rally in the dollar is a sign that investors are once again worried about the continuing problem of debt around the world and they’re reaching for the safety of the world’s reserve currency – the dollar. As asset prices decline and bond yields collapse this is a clear sign that inflation is not the near-term concern, but rather that the debt based deflationary trends continue to dominate global economic trends.

This is exactly the kind of market action we saw leading up to Lehman Brothers. In 2008 the dollar rallied as signs of deflation began to sprout up. This was an instant red flag for anyone who understood the deflationary forces at work (and a total surprise for the inflationistas). The dollar ultimately rallied 26% from peak to trough. Coincidentally, the dollar had rallied 16% from trough to peak just prior to the Lehman collapse when the dollar surge accelerated.

USD2 A DEFLATIONARY RED FLAG IN THE $U.S. DOLLAR

 

Of course, the inflationistas will argue that gold is rising in anticipation of inflation. In my opinion, this is incorrect. First of all, if inflation were a major global concern the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index wouldn’t be almost 65% off its all-time high and just 33% above its 2009 low. Second, and perhaps most importantly, bond yields around the globe wouldn’t be plummeting if there were rampant inflationary fears. For a much more detailed analysis on the reasons why inflation is not a near-term concern please see here.

Oriental dragon mask

As for the gold rally, I think it’s clear gold is rallying in anticipation of its potential to become a future reserve currency. The…
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Forecast 2010 – 2015: An Introduction

I’m really looking forward to Jesse’s next installment. – Ilene

Forecast 2010 – 2015: An Introduction

Wairarapa International Balloon Festival

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

I am in the midst of preparing a forecast for the next five to ten years for the United States economy, and by extension the world because of the intertwining effects of the dollar reserve currency and US consumption in the global economy. And of course the US position as the world’s sole superpower.

Before I do that, I thought it might be useful to see a recap of my last five year forecast, to set the playing field as it were, as a sort of an introduction. The next forecast will be similar in format and style, but may be a little more complex, because the US, and the world, are at a critical crossroads in history.

The greatest struggle in writing this sort of thing is to keep it brief, to prevent it expanding into a lengthy treatise that examines too many particulars, too many possibilities. Forecasters often succumb to the temptation to throw out many specific predictions and possibilities, in the hopes of ‘hits’ that will be remembered, with misses forgotten, without giving sufficient weight to the probabilities. In addition, clarity and consciences are always the challenge in writing non-fiction regarding complex subjects.

Please keep in mind that this forecast was published on my old website at the beginning of 2005, when optimism was running high, the maestro was still on his throne, black swans still an uncommon topic, and the US was in a fresh bull market in stocks with a growing housing bubble that very few would admit, and many would vehemently deny. This forecast is being written in darker hours, when some of the horsemen have already been unleashed.

I have edited out extraneous contemporary detail, and most of the charts which are dated, except for one. I edited out some grammatical errors and awkward phrasing. The timeframe has been ‘compartmentalized’ to five years, from a more open-ended original, because at the time I wrote in 2005 I did not imagine I would still be at this blogging effort five years later. I have also renumbered the footnotes and eliminated several for the sake of simplicity and relevance. 

`Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall:
Humpty Dumpty had a


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The Sound of One Hand Clapping – What Deflationists May Be Missing

I meant to post this article by Chris Martenson a few days ago, and now Mish has responded to it directly, so I’ll post this and then Mish’s one hand clapping analysis next.  – Ilene

The Sound of One Hand Clapping – What Deflationists May Be Missing

Courtesy of Chris Martenson

This is a piece that I wrote in response to a request for a guest post over at ZeroHedge. It ran there yesterday garnering some nice attention and a diverse range of comments beneath.

Based on some of those comments, this article represents nothing more than my attempt to find an explanation that matches the data.

My central thesis to this crisis, developed a few years before it even hit, is that the economic troubles are the symptoms, while the money system itself is the cause.

My views on this are expressed in the opening of an article that I initially penned in 2006 but updated in 2008:

Within the next twenty years, the most profound changes in all of economic history will sweep the globe. The economic chaos and turbulence we are now experiencing are merely the opening salvos in what will prove to be a long, disruptive period of adjustment. Our choices now are to either evolve a new economic model that is compatible with limited physical resources, or to risk a catastrophic failure of our monetary system, and with it the basis for civilization as we know it today.

In order to understand why, we must start at the beginning. While it was operating well, our monetary system was a great system, one that fostered incredible technological innovation and advances in standards of living, two characteristics that I fervently wish to continue. But every system has its pros and its cons, and our monetary system has a doozy of a flaw.

It is this: Our monetary system must continually expand, forever.

The article above provides the big-picture backdrop that drives my long-term vision and thinking.  I raise it now so that you’ll understand that I principally view the economic world through a monetary lens.

The hot topic of the day is "Inflation or Deflation?" and the camps are firmly divided into groups of inflationistas and deflationistas.  When asked which camp I am in, I reply "Yes."  Some would say that puts me in the…
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WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead

WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead


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Zero Hedge

Phase One Trade Deal "Doomed From The Start" As Skepticism Mounts About Purchases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

President Trump is at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, giving a speech to the world's elites on how the Phase 1 trade agreement is the greatest deal ever. 

Trump has touted non-stop on Twitter about how he made the biggest deal in the world, and China will be purchasing vast quantities of U.S. farm products in the coming months.

After all, it's an election year, and Trump has to cheerlead, even...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • The MBA's index of mortgage application activity for the latest week is schedule for release at 7:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index for the latest week is schedule for release at 8:55 a.m. ET.
  • The FHFA house price index for November will be released at 9:00 a.m. ET.
  • Existing home sales report for December is schedule for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews ...



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Phil's Favorites

Oil Is The Only Way Back Up For Venezuela

Courtesy of OilPrice.com, Editorial Dept.

There’s only one path to rebuilding Venezuela, and it’s paved with oil. For the time being, that path leads nowhere.

The key to controlling everything now lies with the National Assembly, the only body with the power to hand out oil licenses—and Maduro’s recent scheme to retake control of the country’s oil may just have been foiled by more Trump sanctions. 

Venezuela is the 12th largest oil producer in the world and home to the world’s largest oil reserves--all of which is irrelevant as long as it remains in the throes of a deep economic and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Hang Seng Index Double Topping At 2007 Highs?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could the Hang Seng Index be “Double Topping” at its 2007 highs? Possible, yet not proven!

The Hang Seng Index attempted to break above its 2007 highs at (1), only to see a key reversal pattern take place the following month.

After the reversal pattern, the index has created a series of lower highs, just below falling resistance.

So far this month, the index is attempting to break above falling resistance, where it could be created a bearish reversal monthly pattern at (2).

What would it take to prove that a double top was i...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

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Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

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The Technical Traders

Q4 Earnings Setup The Rally To The Peak

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team believes the current Q4-2019 earnings season and expectations are prompting a “Rally To A Peak”.  We’ve been warning our followers and clients that we believe the US Stock Market has rallied to levels that constitute a “near peak enthusiasm” related to historical price volatility. 

As you’ll see from these charts, below, we are not dismissing this current upside rally and the potential that it could last for many weeks or months longer – we’re just warning our followers and clients that we believe a very volatile period or price rotation is setting up within the next 10 to 25+ days as prices reach the historical upper boundary. ...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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