Posts Tagged ‘Money Market Funds’

PAUL VOLCKER: THE MARKET IS “BROKEN”

PAUL VOLCKER: THE MARKET IS “BROKEN”

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

This is a superb summary of Paul Volcker’s must read comments at the Federal Reserve bank of Chicago from today. Highly recommended reading (via the WSJ):

1) Macroprudential regulation — “somehow those words grate on my ears.”

2) Banking — Investment banks became “trading machines instead of investment banks [leading to] encroachment on the territory of commercial banks, and commercial banks encroached on the territory of others in a way that couldn’t easily be managed by the old supervisory system.”

3) Financial system — “The financial system is broken. We can use that term in late 2008, and I think it’s fair to still use the term unfortunately. We know that parts of it are absolutely broken, like the mortgage market which only happens to be the most important part of our capital markets [and has] become a subsidiary of the U.S. government.”

4) Business schools — “We had all our best business schools in the United States pouring out financial engineers, every smart young mathematician and physicist said ‘I don’t want to be a civil engineer, a mechanical engineer. I’m a smart guy, I want to go to Wall Street.’ And then you know all the risks were going to be sliced and diced and [people thought] the market would be resilient and not face any crises. We took care of all that stuff, and I think that was the general philosophy that markets are efficient and self correcting and we don’t have to worry about them too much.

5) Central banks and the Fed — “Central banks became…maybe a little too infatuated with their own skills and authority because they found secrets to price stability…I think its fair to say there was a certain neglect of supervisory responsibilities, certainly not confined to the Federal Reserve, but including the Federal Reserve, I only say that because the Federal Reserve is the most important in my view.”

6) The recession — “It’s so difficult to get out of this recession because of the basic disequilibrium in the real economy.”

7) Council of regulators — “Potentially cumbersome.”

8 ) On judgment — “Let me suggest to you that relying on judgment all the time makes for a very heavy burden whether you are regulating an individual institution or whether you are regulating the whole market or whether you are deciding what might be disturbing or what might not be disturbing.


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The Money Market Piggybank is Shattered

The Money Market Piggybank is Shattered

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

USA Today is out with a mystery that I will help them out with…

They ask the question "Where did the $1.1 trillion that just came out of ultra low-yielding money market funds just go?"

Then they go on to point out that the average bank account’s interest rate is .75% versus the ridiculous .04% that traditional money market funds are paying, so maybe some of the $1.1 trillion went there.

Then we are treated to the usual stats about "how much gosh darn cash has been sucked into bond mutual funds" – $700 billion in the last 18 months says TrimTabs.  The growth of assets in bond funds cannot explain the money market sapping alone, because we all know that a lot of those inflows are coming from stock people that are scared and asset allocators that are hopping aboard the bond bandwagon (bondwagon?).  It’s the disillusioned stock market money that’s pumping into bond funds more than anything else.

The article also posits that investors may be skipping the money market funds and going straight for money market instruments, like buying treasuries directly.  I’m not seeing much of that at the retail level at all.

So where did a trillion dollars just go when it left the universe of over 1600 money market funds?

Easy.  Some of it may have gone to bond funds, but my bet is that an inordinate amount went toward everyday Americans paying their everyday bills.  That’s right, I believe that the investor class is finally starting to pay regular expenses and cover the bills with their money market funds, turning that New Normal maxim about the coming of higher savings rates on its ear.

I don’t have statistical confirmation of this hunch just yet (and I’m actually not sure where to get it), but this is what I’m beginning to see firsthand.  Brokerage and investment accounts are becoming a piggybank for investors who are nowhere near retirement.

They will not be buying-and-holding as the commercials have programmed them to do while their businesses and household balance sheets are on their last legs.  They will put the capital that’s been earmarked for "investment" to much better use than a $40 annual return on $10,000 in a money market fund.

With underemployment still raging and business…
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Federal Reserve Eyes the US Money Market Funds

Federal Reserve Eyes the US Money Market Funds

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

[baghdadben.JPG] The Fed is holding a significant amount of assets on its books in the form of Treasuries. For example, the Fed has purchased an enormous amount of US Treasury issuance in the past six months as part of its quantitative easing program, aka monetization. It has also taken on tranches of mortgage debt obligations from the banks, purportedly to improve the banks capitalization profile because of the dodgy nature of the assets.

This has added significant short term liquidity to the system, much of it held by the banks for interest at the Federal Reserve itself.

At some point the Fed will wish to reduce the levels of liquidity in the system. One way to do this is by increasing interest rate targets. It can achieve this, for example, by increasing the amount it pays for reserves.

The traditional way for the Fed to drain liquidity is to conduct what is known as a reverse repurchase agreement, or reverse repo.

In a normal repurchase agreement or repo, the Fed purchases assets held by the banks, normally Treasuries, which obviously increases the ‘cash’ being held by the bank. A repurchase agreement is by definition for a specific amount of time. At the end of the period the Fed sells the asset back to the bank. The difference in amounts is the ‘interest’ which changes hands for the transaction.

There is also a type of purchase agreement with no buyback. It is known as a PMO, or Permanent Market Operation. These are used to add liquidity as the name implies, permanently.

A reverse repo is just the opposite. In this case, the Fed sells an asset from its balance sheet to an institution for ‘cash’ and thereby drains or takes cash liquidity out of the system.

Aren’t Treasuries as good as ‘cash?’ Why does it matter whether a bank is holding Treasuries or cash on its books? Apparently not the case, at least for accounting and regulatory purposes. Remember that the next time someone tells you that banks do not need depositors. Sometimes they do.

Typically the Fed has only done this type of operation with a group of about twenty or so financial institutions known as the Primary Dealers.

According to this news piece, the reason the Fed is looking to the…
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Zero Hedge

S&P Futures Surge 10 Points In One Tick On $3.2BN Market On Close Buy Imbalance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It has been nearly two months since the market was so illiquid it would surge (or plunge) on news of the size of the daily market on close (MOC) imbalance. But it now appears that illiquidity is back, baby, because at exactly 350pm ET when the MOC closing imbalance is disclosed, the Emini soared 10 points in seconds when...



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ValueWalk

ICCR "Investment Group" On A Re-commitment to "Racial Justice"

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As our country collectively shudders at this most recent in a series of racial flash points – the very public and cruel execution by Minneapolis police of yet another black person, George Floyd – it is easy to turn away and surrender to a feeling of hopelessness and the belief that the cycle of systemic oppression and discrimination followed by public protests and promises of reform, is destined to repeat. This would be a mistake.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Fighting Systemic Racism

In his last book, “Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community?...



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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Rioting, Looting and Froth

 

Momentum Monday – Rioting, Looting and Froth

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

[Originally published on June 1.]

I joked on Saturday on Twitter that ‘The FED would do an emergency rate cut on Sunday to stoop the riots'.

Combine riots and looting with some of the frothy sentiment signals I am seeing in the streams I would not be surprised at a strong pullback.

This weekend there were hundreds of peaceful protests and too many scenes of violence. It was heartbreaking to see videos and pictures including the Coronado bridge being closed down for the day as police stood guard. [Below.]...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Aussie Dollar Suggesting Much Higher Commodities And Yields On The Way???

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the Aussie Dollar about to jump higher and signal that Commodities and interest rates are about to do the same? Possible!

This chart looks at the Aussie Dollar on a monthly basis over the past 16-years.

The AU$ created a bottoming pattern over several months in late 2008/early 2009 at (1). While creating the bottom, a couple of monthly bullish reversal patterns formed. What did commodities and yields do following the bottoming process in the AU$? Both were creating bottoms as well!

The 9-year decline in the AU$ has it testing triple support a...



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The Technical Traders

Comparing Bitcoin and Ether During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Courtesy of Technical Traders

You don’t need a crystal ball — or an economics degree — to notice the pandemic is having a historic impact on the stock market and commodities.

Gold initially went down (like all assets) in the mid-March meltdown, but is up 14% YTD. Oil bid negative, for the first time ever, as May futures traders dumped contracts to avoid taking delivery amid a lack of storage. It has since rebounded partially due to production cuts and the lifting of lockdowns. Orange juice is up over 26% YTD on adverse weather than impacted Brazil’s crop and increased consumer demand.

The most surpris...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections - an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

 

Antibody injections could fight COVID-19 infections – an infectious disease expert explains the prospects

Antibodies (pink) attacking a virus particle (blue). STEVEN MCDOWELL/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

Courtesy of Dimiter Stanchev Dimitrov, University of Pittsburgh

Antibodies are part of us – literally.

We have billions of them in our bodies with a combined weight of about 100 grams, or about the weight of a bar of soap. If there are so many antibodies inside our b...



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Chart School

Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart. And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being creat...

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Lee's Free Thinking

US Southern States COVID19 Cases - Let's Give Credit Where Due

 

US Southern States COVID19 Cases – Let’s Give Credit Where Due

Courtesy of  

The number of new COVID 19 cases has been falling in the Northeast, but the South is not having the same experience. The number of new cases per day in each Southern state has been rangebound for the past month.

And that’s assuming that the numbers haven’t been manipulated. We know that in Georgia’s case at least, they have been. And there are suspicions about Florida as well, as the State now engages in a smear campaign against the fired employee who built its much praised COVID19 database and dashboar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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