Posts Tagged ‘money market’

The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

Courtesy of John Rubino of Dollar Collapse 

Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA

Pretend for a second that you recently retired with a decent amount of money in the bank, and all you have to do is generate a paltry 5% to live in comfort for the rest of your days. But lately that’s been easier said than done. Your money market fund yields less than 1%. Your bond funds are around 3% and your bank CDs are are down to half the rate of a couple of years ago. Stocks, meanwhile, are down over the past decade and way too volatile in any event. If you don’t find a way to generate that 5% you’ll have to start eating into capital, which screws up your plan, possibly leaving you with more life than money a decade hence.

Now pretend that you’re running a multi-billion dollar pension fund. You’ve promised the trustees a 7% return and they’ve calibrated contributions and payouts accordingly. But nothing in the investment-grade realm gets you anywhere near 7%. If you come up short, the plan’s recipients won’t get paid in a decade or – the ultimate horror – you’ll have to ask the folks paying in to contribute more, which means you’ll probably be scapegoated out of a job.

In either case, what do you do? Apparently you start buying junk bonds. According to Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, junk issuance is soaring as desperate investors snap up whatever paper promises to get them the yield they’ve come to depend on. Here’s an excerpt:

‘Junk’ Bonds Hit Record

U.S. companies issued risky “junk” bonds at a record clip this week, taking advantage of keen investor appetite for returns amid declining interest rates and tepid stock markets.

The borrowing binge comes as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero and yields on U.S. government debt are near record lows. Those low rates have spread across a variety of markets, making it cheaper for companies with low credit ratings to borrow from investors.

Corporate borrowers with less than investment-grade ratings sold $15.4 billion in junk bonds this week, a record total for a single week, according to data provider Dealogic. The month-to-date total, $21.1 billion, is especially high for August, typically a quiet month that has seen an average of just $6.5 billion in issuance over the past decade.

For the year, the volume of U.S.


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Money Markets are the New Suspenders

Money Markets are the New Suspenders

By EB, courtesy of Zero Hedge

The Financial Times recently reported on the Fed’s latest exit strategy to eventually contain the inflation zombie:

 During the crisis, the Fed created roughly $800bn of additional bank reserves to finance asset purchases and loans. This total is likely to rise in the coming months as the central bank completes its asset purchases and the Treasury unwinds financing it provided to the Fed. Fed officials think they could raise interest rates even with this excess supply of reserves by offering to pay banks to deposit their surplus funds with it rather than lend them out. However, they also want to use reverse repos in tandem to soak up some of the excess reserves. Policymakers call this a “belt and braces approach”. [The latter, clearly a nod to the great Gekko.]

nice suspenders, zero hedgeTD touched on this last Thursday, and we will expand upon it here as it is particularly relevant to our ongoing theory that it is the proceeds from permanent open market operations (POMOs) and their close cousins that are driving equities.  Though this may be received wisdom to ZH readers, the Fed has done us the favor of providing additional evidence through the FT story.  A bit of background, as we are new contributors to this forum:

Money Supply:  Based on our previous research on the effects of swings in M2 non-seasonally adjusted money supply (M2) on the stock market, we were a bit surprised in July 09 by the resiliency of the rally, which continued in the face of such a dramatic contraction in M2.  The dismal Durable Goods report from last Friday confirms that the capital goods sector is still under significant pressure as a result of a lack of money in the general economy.  With banks not lending to normal businesses and consumer credit contracting equally as violently, what is the basis for this rally and from where does the never-ending flow of equities juice flow? 

Bank Non-Borrowed Excess Reserves:  The Fed statistic that most closely correlates with the 2009 equities run-up appears to be bank non-borrowed excess reserves (bank NBER), which


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More signs of liquidity withdrawal, now from the U.S. Treasury

More signs of liquidity withdrawal, now from the U.S. Treasury

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Yesterday I mentioned the announcement by the FDIC to end its debt guarantee program and opined that this was the first sign of tightening/liquidity withdrawal by the U.S. government.  Today the evidence is mounting that this is indeed an orchestrated move toward policy normalization.

The FT spoke to treasury officials who confirmed this interpretation:

A senior Treasury official said “we are pivoting and starting to pull back on certain programmes.” The administration will allow the money market mutual fund guarantee programme to expire as scheduled on September 18, and is backing a review by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that is likely to see funding guarantees for bank debt either ended or restricted to emergency cases on penal terms.

How the Federal Reserve acts is the key missing component here, both in terms of returning repoed assets to the banks which own them and in terms of eventual interest rate decisions. My guess at this point is that the Fed will look to reduce its balance sheet well before it looks to increase interest rates.

In addition, the Fed had provided up to $650 billion in swap lines to other central banks at the height of the financial crisis.  Those swap lines are now down to $70 billion (source: Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman). This reduction in a liquidity-induced appetite for U.S. dollars may be a major reason the Dollar is falling right now even against the Pound and the Swiss Franc where the central banks are engaging in quantitative easing.

Update 1530ET: See also Bailouts Are Shrinking, Geithner Says from DealBook:

One of President Obama’s top economic strategists said on Thursday that the government was now starting to shrink many parts of its gigantic financial bailout following the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September, The New York Times’s Edmund L. Andrews reports.

“We must begin winding down some of the extraordinary support we put in place for the financial system,” said the Treasury Secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, in written testimony prepared for the Congressional Oversight Panel on the Treasury’s $700 billion rescue program. (Go to a Webcast of Thursday’s hearing.)


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JAPAN ALL OVER AGAIN?

JAPAN ALL OVER AGAIN?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

From the always informative David Rosenberg:

Finally, for all the talk of a V-shaped recovery, outside of a brief 3Q bounce — likely as brief as the spurt in last year’s second quarter — there is no such thing and the money market is telling you as much. When the yield on the three-month T-bill is 14 basis points above zero, you know that this has a real Japanese feel to it.

 JAPAN ALL OVER AGAIN? 

 


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Zero Hedge

Mystery Trader Shocks Market With Giant VIX Put Trades

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While everyone is familiar with the exploits of the notorious vol trader Ruffer LLP, better known in the market as "50 cent" for his penchant for buying deep OTM VIX calls which while usually expiring worthless, occasionally make a killing, such as the $2.6 billion the fund made during the March crash when VIX soared, a new and heretofore unknown player has emerged in the vol space. And because this particular trader's bet appear to be on a reduction in volatility Perhaps we can call him minus 50 cent?

According to Bloomberg, which first reported the mystery trader's exploits, so large w...



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ValueWalk

COVID-19 Shocks Will Continue to Shape Future FX Market Structure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

COVID-19 Shocks Will Continue to Shape Future FX Market Structure – A New Premium on Sell-Side Relationships and Algos

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Tuesday, October 20, 2020 | Stamford, CT USA — Although day-to-day aspects of the foreign exchange (FX) market have largely returned to normal, disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will have a lasting impact on market structure and functionality.

COVID-19 Crisis Continue...

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Phil's Favorites

Buy stocks now or after the election?

 

Buy stocks now or after the election?

Courtesy of 

 

On an all-new episode of What Are Your Thoughts, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick take on the biggest topics on Wall Street this week, including:

*The “pressure cooker of uncertainty” has many investors waiting with cash for the election to be over.
*Amazon is actually losing market share to the old category killers like Best Buy and Walmart, who are getting good at ecommerce.
*YOU ASKED: What should my strategy be, investing or trading?
*Which would produce the biggest rally, a vaccine approval or a signed stimulus bill?...



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Chart School

Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Time to see what happens to the Dow post US elections.

The Dow Gann Angle Target 3 (from 2007 top) is on the table, and what a ride that will be. The FED went BRRRRR is all the fundamental news you need to know. Gann angles are very good tool to see how the masses are pushing price.


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The last two US elections saw Bitcoin and the DOW rally well for 6 months, due to stimulus. The most bearish 2020 US Election case for the markets is a Biden win with the Senate and Congress controlled by the Democrats, somehow this blog feels that is very unlikely. So what could go wrong!


...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will 2020 Mark Historic Low For Interest Rates?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

US treasury bond yields have been trending lower for over 3 decades. Could the latest drop mark a significant low for bond yields and interest rates?

In today’s chart, we can see that interest rates have had several spike lows and highs, but that each low is lower and each high is lower. That’s the definition of a downtrend. BUT, each of these spike lows has resulted in big rallies within the downtrend channel. And each of these lows and subsequent rallies have been marked by significant momentum lows (see each green line and shaded box).

So is it time for short-term yields to rally?

Looking at the current set-up, we can see that yiel...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far - and the vital missing clues

 

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far – and the vital missing clues

By Sheena Cruickshank, University of Manchester

As President Trump claims that he is immune to COVID-19 and isolated reports emerge of reinfection, what is the truth about immunity to COVID-19?

To date, there have been six published ...



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Politics

Dan's Covid Charts: Blue States vs. Red States Over Time

 

The trend of lower Covid-19 case numbers per capita in blue states compared to red states isn't itself surprising, but the magnitude of the differences may be. You can visualize the evolving differences in case loads by watching the infection's progression, as measured by cases per capita, at Dan's website.

[Visit Dan’s COVID Charts to see these amazing animated charts and more. Fortunately, Dan broke his Twitter hiatus to share his work.]

People say I should break my 12-year Twitter hiatus to share my latest animated COVID chart. It compares state cases factoring in partisanship since June 1, when science had proven methodology as to how to stop the spread after the initial sucker punch. ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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