Posts Tagged ‘Mortgage market’

Krugman: “The Question Is Whether Our Economy Is Governed By Any Kind Of Rule Of Law”

Krugman: "The Question Is Whether Our Economy Is Governed By Any Kind Of Rule Of Law"

rule of lawCourtesy of Washington’s Blog 

Paul Krugman writes:

The mortgage mess is making nonsense of claims that we have effective contract enforcement — in fact, the question is whether our economy is governed by any kind of rule of law.

***

True to form, the Obama administration’s response has been to oppose any action that might upset the banks, like a temporary moratorium on foreclosures while some of the issues are resolved. Instead, it is asking the banks, very nicely, to behave better and clean up their act. I mean, that’s worked so well in the past, right?

The response from the right is, however, even worse …. conservative commentators like those at The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page have come out dismissing the lack of proper documents as a triviality. In effect, they’re saying that if a bank says it owns your house, we should just take its word. To me, this evokes the days when noblemen felt free to take whatever they wanted, knowing that peasants had no standing in the courts. But then, I suspect that some people regard those as the good old days.

I’m happy that someone as prominent as Krugman is weighing in on the side of the rule of law.

I’ve been hammering on that topic for years:

Pic credit: Jesse’s Americain Cafe 


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The mindset will not change; a depressionary relapse may be coming

The mindset will not change; a depressionary relapse may be coming

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

When former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist Andy Xie comments on the United States, he focuses on a bailout nation keen on perpetuating a bubble economy predicated on malinvestment and overconsumption.  In this he sees parallels with Japan and its long malaise.

Japan has experienced two decades of economic stagnation since the collapse of the infamous bubble it suffered in the 1980s. The most popular explanations are that Tokyo wasn’t aggressive enough in stimulating the economy after the bubble burst, or that it withdrew its stimulus too early – or both. This line of thinking is popular among elite economists in the US, where it is rarely challenged. But few Japanese analysts buy it…

The argument to "stimulate until prosperity returns" is popular because it doesn’t hurt anyone in the short term. When a central bank prints money, its nasty consequence — inflation — takes time to show up. When a government spends borrowed money, repayment is in the future. Nobody feels the pain now. Indeed, when debt is sufficiently long-dated, nobody alive need feel the pain. So analysts who advocate stimulus are popular with politicians because it sounds like a free lunch. Japan’s tale is just a nice story that seems to support the argument…

Japan has run up the national debt equal to 200% of GDP — the greatest Keynesian stimulus program in history — all in the name of stimulating the economy back to health. It has failed miserably. Japan’s nominal GDP is about the same as when the stimulus began. Those who advocated the policy blame Japan’s failure on either the stimulus being too small or not being sustained for long enough – that is, the dosage, not the medicine itself, was at fault.

The bankruptcy of Japan Airlines is a sobering reminder of what is still wrong with Japan. It stayed with unprofitable routes for years without its creditors or shareholders being able to do anything about it. And by making credit cheap and easy, the stimulus prolonged the airline’s business model — actually,


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Mortgage Market Remains Solidly Frozen

Mortgage Market Remains Solidly Frozen

Courtesy of Mish

On May 28 I wrote Mortgage Market Locks Up. Ten year treasury yields started to soar and 30 year mortgages for good borrowers jumped a full point from 4.5% to 5.5%.

The question on my mind at the time was whether or not the mortgage action was a brief outlier. It wasn’t. Things are now worse.

Two days ago Michael Becker, a Mortgage Consultant at Green Pastures Mortgage & Finance wrote:

Mish, I’ve attached two rate sheets to this e-mail. One shows the rates from May 21st, and the other from today June 5th (after a re-price). You can see on May 21st 4.625% was paying .375 points, and today 5.625% is paying .25 points.

So in a little over 2 weeks rates have jumped 1%. That is a huge jump.

When you add in the effect of the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) appraisal process, many loans originations will never close. This is because it is taking 15-25 days to get an appraisal back, and often those appraisals are coming 10-25% low. So locks expire or appraisals kill the deal, the latter possibly on purpose.

You are going to see the recovery in housing come to a complete halt. Trade up buying is already dead.

Michael Becker

On Wednesday I called Jeff Bell a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist at Cobalt Mortgage for his take on the situation.

Jeff commented: "Mortgage rates jumped again to 5.75% and refis are frozen solid. The trade-up market is dead but some new houses are still moving …. for now. "

Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Backed Securities

click on chart for sharper image

The current price is 96.66%. Compared to a couple short weeks ago, that is a crash.

Interestingly Jeff Bell also commented on the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), and is not too pleased with it.

One problem is lenders are requiring applicants to put up $500 for appraisals and if the amounts do not come in, even if they miss by a tiny bit, the deal is denied and the applicant is out $500. Jeff had a $1.2 million sale fall through because an appraisal was $20K short.

A couple years back lenders were letting anything slide, now they appear to be looking for


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Phil's Favorites

The Great Grift

 

The Great Grift

Courtesy of Scott Galloway, No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway

The federal response to the pandemic has been massive — a $5 trillion effort. It has also been a con. Under the cloud cover of Covid-19, the shareholder class has used its outsized influence over government to toss a few loaves of bread at those suffering, all the while accruing trillions of dollars in wealth financed on the backs of younger, and future, generations.

How did we get here? In a healthy capitalist economy, wealth is always at risk. Competition spurs inn...



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Zero Hedge

World's Largest Muscle Car Collector Set To Auction 200 Rare Vehicles At No Reserve 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

While current market euphoria has surpassed dot com levels, what is going on now is absolutely astonishing and gets crazier by the day. The on-going Federal Reserve's QE purchases, plus all other major central banks, are plowing $1.3 billion into capital markets every 60 minutes since March. 

And, of course, all this newly printed money has found a home in financial markets, real estate, among other things, class...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Politics

Trump supporters seeking more violence could target state capitols during inauguration - here's how cities can prepare

 

Trump supporters seeking more violence could target state capitols during inauguration – here's how cities can prepare

The FBI says armed protests are planned at all 50 state capitols ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration. Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jennifer Earl, University of Arizona

Americans witnessed an alarming and deadly failure in planning and policing at ...



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ValueWalk

US Consumer Confidence Increases At Start Of 2021

By Refinitiv. Originally published at ValueWalk.

WASHINGTON, DC ‐ According to the Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index, American consumer confidence for January 2021 is at 50.9, up 2.8 points from last month. The index fielded from December 25, 2020, to January 8, 2021.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

American Consumer Confidence Is Back Up In 2021

After a sharp 4‐point decline in December, American consumer confidence has returned to levels seen in September 2020 (50.6). The Current, Expectations, Investment, and Jobs sub‐indices all experienced ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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