Posts Tagged ‘MSCI’

Monday Market Movement – Can We Go It Alone?

It’s lonely out there in Stock Land today

Everybody’s closed today except Japan and they are so thrilled with 94.5 Yen to the dollar that you can’t figure anthing out by watching their market add another 53 points this morning to finish the day at 11,339 but it was well off the gap up open at 11,400.  As I mentioned in the Weekend Wrap-Up, where we discussed our Super-Secret Strategy for making money off this nonsense – just because a rally is totally propped up BS doesn’t mean it isn’t, technically, a rally – does it?

With everyone else closed, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hit 19-month highs and copper climbed to $3.62 in overnight trading (when there were no traders) and gold hit $1,130 while oil hovered around $85.50 so we can infer that commodities are very, very popular with vacationing traders.  Asian traders were excited about our jobs numbers – obviously they didn’t read my analysis on Friday:

Overall, we are seeing positive signs about the global economy,” said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which manages $111 billion. “While developing nations are leading global growth, they are waiting for the U.S. to rebound. Recent reports are suggesting that the U.S. labor market and consumer spending are improving.”

Consumer spending is certainly improving at the Apple Store with 700,000 IPads going out the door in 48 hours, bringing AAPL an estimated $500,000,000 in revenues over the weekend.  I was in the NY Apple Store this weekend and there were about 200 IPads on display with lines 3-4 deep of people very patiently waiting considering the average person who touched one held on for a good half hour.  Keep in mind that the IPads that are selling now are limited Wi-Fi only models – the good, 3G ones don’t come out for another couple of weeks!

So, based on 2 days of sales, we can project AAPL selling $175Bn worth of IPads this year and that will make AAPL worth about a Trillion dollars, which is very likely to boost the Nasdaq back to 5,000…  OK, that may be a bit of an over-statement but we still cannot ignore the Apple effect on the market because it does look like they are going to move a tremendous amount of IPads this year and that will be good for chip
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Free Money Thursday – 130 S&P New Highs Can’t Be Wrong!

130 S&P 500 companies hit 52-week highs yesterday.

Things must be even better than I thought in yesterday's post and there has been a conga line of pom-pom waving analysts on GE/CNBC this morning telling us how UNDER valued everything is because we just don't see the BIG PICTURE.  As Bespoke notes in their chart of the S&P and it's new highs, you want to see more and more stocks hitting new highs to sustain a rally but my question is – with the market now at 17-month highs and making new highs every day – what's up with the other 370 stocks? 

In an ordinary market, I wouldn't question it but this is not an ordinary market.  52 weeks ago we were at 666 on the S&P and stocks were making DECADE lows.  Here we are with the index up almost 80% off that bottom and we can't pull a lousy 52-week high from 2/3 of the index???  We'll be keeping an eye on this indicator to see how things pan out but notice when the market fell – there were no doubts, 80% of the stocks made 52-week lows last fall – not THAT'S a sell-off.  That's the kind of dramatic numbers you expect to see in a dramatic market move – not this wimpy 40% stuff – let's see some conviction people!

AAPL is convicted – they are up 191% from their lows and AAPL is 15% of the Nasdaq so, all by themselves, AAPL has accounted for 28% of the Nasdaq's move from 1,265 to 2,389 (89%).  TRV is also moving with conviction, up 54% since March and adding 160 much-needed points to the Dow, a great swap for C, who would have only added about 24 had they remained in the index.  CSCO replaced GM (because they are soooooo similar) and they too have been a great trade for the Dow, up 100% off the March lows and slapping 104 bonus points on the index. 

Ah, now we see how our industrials can do so well despite all the unemployment and lower cap utilization and lack of demand and high commodity input costs – we just shuffle the deck until we find a set of cards that work!   Even so, as I've pointed out this week, the Dow has been lagging the Nasdaq
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Testy Tuesday Morning – $1.70 for a Pound? I Don’t Think So…

Has the dollar fallen too far?

The British Pound is now fetching $1.70, a huge break-out and well above the June highs, now valued higher to the dollar than any time since last October.  Britain has aggressively cut rates and expanded their money supply and Britain had banks falling like dominoes before being taken over by the government.   The UK's budget deficit as a percent of GDP is forecast to be 11.6% this year, the second worst on the planet, exceeded only by the US's projection of 13.5% but the UK is forecast to catch up in 2010 with 13.3% of their GDP taken up by debt.  Why then, you may wonder, is the British Pound up 25% against the dollar this year and almost 10% this past month?

The answer to that is the same as the answer to many irrational market moves – SPECULATION.  The dollar in general has been pushed back down to 1-year lows by currency speculators and the Pound is benefiting from their No-Euro policy that makes the UK a relatively safe-looking investment for currency traders who are worried that Eastern Europe will eventually prove to be a weight that drags the rest of the EU down.  With a population and economy about the size of California and the independence of a sovereign nation, any small sign of improvement (like the recent uptick in manufacturing data in the UK) can quickly pull money back to the Pound who, just 30 years ago, were the second strongest currency in the world and, for 500 years before that, was the undisputed global leader.  The UK, as it was 500 years ago, is still ruled by its powerful banking sector and again the fishbowl-like nature of the island nation tends to magnify small improvements we've seen in the UK banks, which causes Japanese housewives (who are very into FOREX trading) to push more money into British currency. 

Japan Housewife forexToday it may become apparent that the Japanese housewives have become a little irrational in their Pound exuberance as nationalized British Bank, Northern Rock, showed a 31% increase in first-half losses to $1.25Bn as bad loan provisions jumped to over $1Bn from under $300M last year.  Even worse for the bank – deposits fell 17% despite the bank's 100% government guarantee
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Zero Hedge

US Sends Bombers From Norway In "Low Flyover" Of Baltics Near Russian Base

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Previously we detailed the Pentagon's unprecedented move to park on an indefinite basis multiple B-1 Lancer bombers in Norway, and Russia's corresponding (and expected) anger and denunciation of the move. The expeditionary B-1 Lancer bomber squadron recently arrived in the NATO country which shares a border with Russia. 

The US didn't waste any time in using the bombers in a mus...



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Phil's Favorites

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 03, 2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 03, 2021

 

Major Topics:
 

00:00:01 - Checking on the Market
00:01:27 - Crude Oil WTI
00:04:52 - Nasdaq 100
00:06:13 - STP
00:08:01 - TZA
00:10:41 -LTP
00:11:49 - SKT | INTC
00:14;15 - LTP | STP
00:14:27 - Butterfly Portfolio
00:14:38 - Dividend Portfolio
00:14:43 - Earnings Portfolio
00:14:49 - Future is Now Portfolio
00:14:54 - Money Talk Portfolio
00:18:09 ...



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ValueWalk

These Are The 10 Largest Individual Landholders

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Land is among the most valuable assets and is also considered a safe asset. However, a significant portion of total inhabitable land (36.8 billion acres) belongs to people for whom investment is not the primary objective. These people are mostly leaders of their countries. If you want to know more about them, then detailed below are the ten largest individual landholders.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

10 Largest Individual Landholders

Our list of the ten largest individual landholders in the world is based on data from ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Bond Yields Fastest Rise In 50 Years Rattle Markets?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The waterfall decline of bond yields (and interest rates) has been met with an equally steep rally.

In fact, the 10-Year US Treasury bond yield is up 131% in 45 weeks, making it the biggest rally in 50 years! See the chart below.

Earlier today we asked if the 40-Year Bond Bull Market Is Over? And we highlighted how bonds and yields are facing an important test right now.

Will the record rise in bond yields continue? And will bond pric...



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Politics

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

 

Why repressive Saudi Arabia remains a US ally

A demonstrator dressed as Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with blood on his hands protests outside the Saudi Embassy in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 8, 2018. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeffrey Fields, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman “approved an operation … to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” according to a...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

 

COVID-19 revealed how sick the US health care delivery system really is

Many U.S. hospitals and clinics are behind when it comes to sharing information. Teera Konakan/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth A. Regan, University of South Carolina

If you got the COVID-19 shot, you likely received a little paper card that shows you’ve been vaccinated. Make sure you keep that card in a safe place. There is no coordinated way to share information about who has been vaccinated and who has not.

...

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Mapping The Market

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

 

Which Governments Ordered Johnson & Johnson's Vaccine?

Courtesy of Niall McCarthy, Statista

On Wednesday, U.S. regulators announced that Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine being developed by its subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals in Belgium is effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of the disease. The jab has been deemed safe with 66 percent efficacy and the FDA is likely to approve it for use in the U.S. within days.

The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine can be stored for up to three months in a refrigerator and requires a single shot, ...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto - It Is Different This Time

 

Crypto – It Is Different This Time

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

?I have been astonished as you know by the growth of crypto.

I remember back in 2017 when I noticed that Stocktwits message volume on Bitcoin ($BTC.X) surpassed that of $SPY. I knew Bitcoin was here to stay and Bitcoin went on to $19,000 before heading into its bear market.

Today Bitcoin is near $50,000.

Back in November of 2020, something new started to happen on Stocktwits with respect to crypto.

After the close on Friday until the open of the futures on Sunday, all Stocktwits trending tickers turned crypto. The weekend messages on Stocktwits have increased 400 percent.

That has continued each weekend...



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Chart School

The Fastest Money

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The fast money happens near the end of the long trend.

Securities which attract a popular following by both the public and professionals investors tend to repeat the same sentiment over their bull phase. The chart below is the map of said sentiment.
 


 

Video on the subject.


 

Charts in the video



 



 



Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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