Posts Tagged ‘muddle through’

WHITNEY TILSON: WELCOME TO “MUDDLE-THROUGH”

WHITNEY TILSON: WELCOME TO “MUDDLE-THROUGH”

Pencil popping balloon

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners says the global economy is set to “muddle through” as the excesses of the last few decades are worked off. Tilson detailed his macro outlook in his most recent investor letter for August.  Tilson believes the worst of the credit crisis is behind us, however, the heavy lifting is not over yet. Tilson is very concerned about the macro risks, particularly the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and US housing.  Tilson says the US housing market has already started to double dip:

“We think we have gone through the most difficult economic period in the United States and the world since the Great Depression. We think the worldwide debt bubble — this was not just a US housing crisis or bubble, but a worldwide debt bubble — was unprecedented in the degree of depravity that took place, in the amount of leverage that built up in the system all over the world, and we’re very skeptical that we have somehow successfully managed our way through the aftermath of that bubble and that everything is rosy now.

We think the aftermath of this bubble will be with us for many years and that will continue to cause disruptions and turmoil in various markets. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is a good example of that just in the past few months; we think the US housing market is already in a double dip right now, though because there is a lag in the data, most people haven’t yet realized it. We don’t think it’s going to be anything like the first dip, which really took world economy over a cliff, but there are 7 million people not paying their mortgages right now and we have not resolved that problem and that’s going to continue to be a headwind for our financial system. There are probably six or eight major risk factors, two of which are the sovereign debt issues and the US housing market. These make us very nervous and we don’t know how it’s going to play out (and we’re skeptical that anyone knows how it’s going to play out), so in light of these major problems, we think it’s wise to be prudent.”

Tilsons’s prudent macro outlook has him relatively risk averse when it comes to…
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How We Get Through This Mess

How We Get Through This Mess

Portrait of a senior man in a tuxedo showing the thumbs up

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts From The Frontline

This week I spoke to a small group of businessmen/entrepreneurs about the current economic environment, and after my presentation one asked me whether I didn’t have any good news for them, with a kind of gallows humor laugh. And I tried. But upon reflection there is more I could have said, so this week’s letter will be what I should have said to be a little more encouraging.

The group was a Vistage group in which my daughter Tiffani participates. This is an organization of 12 businesspeople (in this case all CEOs of small businesses) who meet once a month to share and learn about better business practices, accountability, planning, and all the aspects of running a business. Every person I have ever met who has been involved in Vistage has had good things to say about it. I have watched it help Tiffani a lot. She truly runs our business now, allowing me to read and write and travel and speak. I am a very lucky man and proud Dad.

I have particularly watched my partners at Altegris really truly transform their business model through their involvement with Vistage. First the CEO, Jon Sundt, joined, and now the partners have all joined Vistage groups focusing on their roles in the business. Sundt was always a good businessman, but the level of professionalism of his whole company has gone up a notch. It is a pleasure to watch them grow, and they give Vistage a large measure of the credit for their success. In fact, when I went to the Vistage web site to get the link, I saw a brief video of Sundt talking about his experience. (http://www.vistage.com/)  I am proud to be their partner.

If you have a business and could use some help and professional mentoring, you should look into finding a Vistage group that works for you. They match businesspeople in different industries but with roughly same size businesses. In tough times you need all the help you can get.

I talked to them about the current economic environment and what I saw coming down the road. Long-time readers know that I think we are in for an extended period of slow growth, high and sticky unemployment,…
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Death of Muddle Through

Death of Muddle Through

Courtesy of Mish

The US government is on an unsustainable path. Deficits are soaring and the Obama administration is planning massive tax hikes.

Moreover, businesses have little reason to hire already because of massive overcapacity. Add increasing health care costs to the list of reasons for businesses not to hire.

killing the gooseGiven that government spending crowds out private investment, these policies all but assures that unemployment is going to remain high for a long time as noted in Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade.

Killing The Goose

Last week in Thoughts on the Economy: Problems and Solutions I listed the problems and some of the solutions facing the economy. It was a discussion between John Mauldin and I about his weekly E-Letter Killing The Goose.

John and I agreed on many, but not all solutions. I would also like to add something I have proposed before, killing the Davis-Bacon prevailing wage act.

Muddle Through Where Art Thou?

Back in 2002, the usually optimistic Mauldin proposed the economy would somehow manage to "Muddle Through".

However, because of the unsustainable path we are on. John has changed his mind. Please consider these excerpts from Muddle Through, R.I.P?

I defined a Muddle Through Economy in the past as one of slow growth (in the area of 1-2%) and a slack employment environment, such as we had in 2002 and the early part of 2003. In early 2007, I suggested we would return at some point to such an environment at the end of the recession I was predicting.

However, gentle reader, never in my wildest dreams did I think we could be looking at government deficits of $1.5 trillion dollars and actually budgeting future deficits of over $1 trillion as far as the eye can see. And there is real reason to think that under current plans, $1 trillion deficits are optimistic.

Obama Budget Agenda

Look at the graph above from the Heritage Foundation. They suggest that current policy would bring us closer to a $2 trillion deficit by 2019. And that assumes nominal growth that is north of 3% and unemployment dropping back below 5% in reasonably short order.

Japanese Disease

Some readers wrote this week telling me I am far too worried about a rising government deficit. Right now we are at roughly 42%


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Phil's Favorites

Delivery Robots Set To Invade College Campuses This Fall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Starship Technologies, an autonomous delivery company, focused on last-mile delivery services, announced Tuesday via a company press release, that it will launch delivery robots on 100 university campuses across the US in the next 24 months.

The announcement said the delivery robots have already arrived at the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, in preparation for the fall semester. Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, will receive robots on Sept. 9 and an additional 98 university campuses ...



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Zero Hedge

Delivery Robots Set To Invade College Campuses This Fall

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Starship Technologies, an autonomous delivery company, focused on last-mile delivery services, announced Tuesday via a company press release, that it will launch delivery robots on 100 university campuses across the US in the next 24 months.

The announcement said the delivery robots have already arrived at the University of Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, in preparation for the fall semester. Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, will receive robots on Sept. 9 and an additional 98 university campuses ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Everything awesome? Gold over $1500. Central banks are printing money to generate fake demand. Germany issues first ever 30 year bond with negative interest rate. Crazy times!

Even Australia and New Zealand and considering negative interest rates and printing money, you know a bunch of lowly populated islands in the South Pacific with no aircraft carriers or nuclear weapons. They will need to do this to suppress their currency as they are export nations, as they need foreign currency to pay for foreign loans. But what is next, maybe Fiji will start printing their dollar. 

Now for a laugh, this Jason Pollock sold for more than $32M in 2012. 





Ok, now call Dan...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Is Knocking On Key Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

In 2013, Gold broke below its 23 percent Fibonacci retracement level and a bearish trend change took place at (1).

This was the beginning of a bigger decline that saw gold fall another 450 dollars.

Nearly six years later, Gold returns to this “breakdown” level in hopes of making it a new “breakout” level at (2).

If Gold can breakout at (2) it will send a very bullish message to the market.

Stay tuned – gold bulls are knocking on heaven’s door!

If pattern opportunities in Gold, Silver, Copper and Miners is imp...



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The Technical Traders

This is a Key Week for US Markets, Gold and Oil

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on why this week is important for the US markets, gold, and oil. All of these are near strong support or resistance levels where if a break happens could result in an extended run. We breakdown the scenario for each market and level that are most important.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to underst...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For August 21, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $1.22 per share on revenue of $1.45 billion.
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $2 per share on revenue of $20.94 billion.
  • Target Corporation (NYS...


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Lee's Free Thinking

Watch Out Bears! Fed POMO Is Back!

Courtesy of Lee Adler

That’s right. The Fed is doing POMO again.  POMO means Permanent Open Market Operations. It’s a fancy way of saying that the Fed is buying Treasuries, pumping money into the financial markets.

Over the past 6 days, the Fed has bought $8.6 billion in T-bills and coupons. These are the first regular Fed POMO Treasury operations since the Fed ended outright QE in 2014.

Who is the Fed buying those Treasuries from?

The Primary Dealers. Who are the Primary Dealers?  I’ll let the New York Fed tell you:

Primary dealers are trading counterparties of the New York Fed in its implementation of monetary policy. They are also expected to make markets for the New York Fed on behalf of its official accountholders as needed, and to bid on a ...



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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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