Posts Tagged ‘NDX’

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts

SP 500 and NDX December Futures Daily Charts

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The market is acting like there is a ‘Bernanke Put’ underneath it in the form of a handsome QE II to be unveiled at the FOMC in early November.


Meanwhile the financial sector is imploding because of the continual revelations of pervasive mortgage fraud.

It will be interesting to see if the PPT can hold things together until the November elections in the States.

 


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Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Danger Zone? Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we entering a “Danger Zone” right now?

The phrase “Highway to the Danger Zone“  (theme song here) became popular due to the movie “Top Gun,” starring Tom Cruise. 

I share information with several types of investors…long-term (retirement/401k plans) that don’t move monies often, (which “harvested” at the April highs).  Medium term investors, that feel comfortable moving monies once a month/6 weeks and shorter-term investors that are open to adjustments frequently, yet are NOT day traders. I am not interested in day trading!!!

This post would be for the shorter-term audience, that are aggressive and open to “attempting to score on defense!”

The NDX 100 is at the top of its trading range and the VXN has created a falling wedge.  During this trading channel,  when the NDX is at the top of the range, wedges have formed, followed by lower prices in the NDX. 

For any medium-term investors that are long the NDX, stay long and keep the 3% stop in play!   For those aggressive short-term investors that are comfortable attempting to score on defense, take the inverse position here (Buy PSQ).  Momentum and trends remain a positive so far. This is totally a “Power of the Pattern” play for short-term investors. 

If this pattern really forces the NDX lower and changes it momentum, I will follow-up with more suggestions per scoring on defense. 


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SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

SP 500

Except for perhaps some hedging or a daily ‘skin’ this is not a market to be shorted until the uptrend is broken. It is drifting higher on a steady short squeeze and light volumes in the kind of artificial action that is reminiscent of the 2004-2006 reflationary stock market rally fueled by Fed easy money.

An event can bring it down and quickly. But one can burn a lot of cash trying to pick a top ahead of the market signal that it has gone far enough. I do think that the two gaps will be filled, and that this market will retest its lows again. The timing is problematic, especially given the upcoming November elections. No president or Congress wishes to go into an important general election on the heels of a stock market crash. But this could serve the desires of those on Wall Street. So a continued rally is hardly a ‘sure thing’ despite the statistical profile of the SP 500 in the second year of a presidential term.

The SP 500 is up against resistance but the NDX has broken out cleanly. With relatively few risk-comparable productive outlets the excess of the easy money being fed to the Wall Street banks by the Fed is flowing into the higher yielding ‘risk trades’ like junk bonds and equities. In the absence of a strongly directive fiscal policy and honest price discovery this is what happens when monetary stimulus is applied without a broader policy support. It is hard for real economic proposals to compete with a Ponzi scheme that insiders control and that has a de facto sanction and subsidy from the governing authority. And this then is the basis for Obama’s failure most likely sourced in his Wall Street friendly advisors, Summers and Geithner, and his own natural tendency to ‘go along to get along’ and sacrifice principle to expediency. This potential strength, the ability to find and form a consensus, can become a tragic flaw when carried to excess.

The NDX is a more obvious example of this reflationary risk trade.

NDX


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Peter D – Confessions of the PSW Strangler

Peter D has a long-running and very successful system of selling premiums on a regular basis that's well worth learning.

Investors selling a short strangle are expecting the underlying stock to not move much in either direction. The strategy is accomplished by selling a call option at a higher price than the current stock or ETF price and by selling a put option at a lower price than the current stock or ETF price. Both of the options will have the same expiration month. The investor in a short strangle benefits from the underlying moving within the spread between the call strike and the put strike.

There are two reasons we like this strategy a lot at PSW:

1) It's boring!  Unless the market is MUCH more volatile than normal, taking sensible, NON-GREEDY, out-of-the-money short option positions is a fairly market-neutral way to place our bets.  While the risk/reward ratio may seem inverted, statistically it's a winning play over time.

2)  It's perfect for our "be the house, not the sucker" philosophy of trading.  We are always looking to SELL volatility. The idea behind this trade is that front-month volatility is relatively expensive compared to historical long-term volatility and we take advantage of selling a very high cumulative volatility over the course of the year.  

We recently ran a collection of comments following through on some trades over time and quite a while ago Sage wrote an article relating about using short strangles on longer-term stock plays, which provides some additional ideas on how to apply this strategy.  Peter has been kind enough to provide us with a definitive guide to help set you on the road to a successful career as a strangler.  The following is a collection of posts (make sure you use the links) on Short Strangles and the Crazy plays on the indices (SPX, RUT, NDX, etc.):
 
1- The Crazy play consists of a Short Strangle and a protective long put vertical. These plays are mainly for Virtual Portfolio Margin accounts, with balance greater than $125,000, preferably over $200k as the margin can swing wildly.  

2- Very rough comparison among Short Strangle, Iron Condor, Buy/Write and straight stock purchase. Note the rolling tips in the second to last paragraph.
 
3- VIX, the effects of.
 
4- Possible
continue reading


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Zero Hedge

"Mega Find" - 5,000 Classic Motorcycles Stashed In Barns 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and Treasury's fiscal stimulus have resulted in the greatest monetary experiment of all time. The result of trillions of dollars pumped into the economy has lifted prices of all assets, everything from the stock market to homes to baseball cards to crypto to classic cars and motorcycles. 

Last week, readers were one of the first to know about a rare 1955 Porsche 550 Spyder found in an ol...



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Phil's Favorites

Pandemic recovery will take more than soaring growth - to fuel a more equitable economy, countries need to measure the well-being of people, too

 

Pandemic recovery will take more than soaring growth – to fuel a more equitable economy, countries need to measure the well-being of people, too

Researchers have long been searching for a more comprehensive way to assess national progress than GDP. erhui1979 via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bas van Bavel, Utrecht University and Auke Rijpma, Utrecht University

...

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Digital Currencies

"You'd Have To Shut Down The Internet" To Ban Bitcoin, Says SEC's Hester Peirce

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Any government efforts to ban Bitcoin would be “foolish,” said Hester Peirce (aka “Crypto Mom”), a very Bitcoin-friendly commissioner at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), during a MarketWatch virtual conference earlier this week, according to Cryptoslate reporter Liam Frost.

"I think we were past that point very early on because you’d have to shut down the Internet,” Peirce said, adding, “I don’t see how you could ban it. Y...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The Biden Yellen team have made their play, and it is not US dollar friendly.

Janet Yellen speech named "International Priorities — Remarks to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs" (here) can be summed to (via Luke Gromen) :


The US is accelerating a move away from "subjugating the US middle and working class to support the USD", to "subjugating the USD to support the US middle and working classes".



Well the above is true, but as we all know large US deficits and the trend of the US dollar are joined at the hip, and that trend is down '...

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ValueWalk

2021 Sohn Investment Conference Featuring Einhorn, O'Shaughnessy And More

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The 2021 Sohn Investment Conference will be held virtually on May 12, 2021 and Valuewalk will be covering the event. Stay tuned for our in-depth coverage!

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Check out our coverage of the 2020 Sohn Hong Kong Conferences here.

All proceeds from The 2021 Sohn Investment Conference will be directed to Rockefeller University, which will provide unrestricted funding for scientists working on some of the highest-risk, highest-reward projects primed to advance the treatment of pediatric...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How worried should you be about coronavirus variants? A virologist explains his concerns

 

How worried should you be about coronavirus variants? A virologist explains his concerns

A COVID-19 patient in an ICU unit in a hospital in Capetown, South Africa, in December 2020. A variant emerged in South Africa that has since spread to other parts of the world. Other new variants could emerge elsewhere. Rodger Bosch/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Paulo Verardi, University of Connecticut

Spring has sprung, and there is a sense of relief in the air. After one year of lockdowns and social distancing, mor...



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Politics

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

 

For autocrats like Vladimir Putin, ruthless repression is often a winning way to stay in power

Russian police officers beat people protesting the jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Jan. 23, 2021 in Moscow. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Shelley Inglis, University of Dayton

Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, sick with a cough and ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold; Load Up The Truck Upon Hitting This Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold has created lower highs since peaking last summer. Is Gold near a low? Where would a nice entry point come into play?

This chart looks at Gold ETF (GLD) on a weekly basis over the past few years. GLD hit the top of this rising channel at (1) last summer, as it was above moving averages and relative strength was hitting lofty levels.

The decline over the past 7-months has GLD creating a death cross. Warren Buffett sold his Gold holding before this death cross took place!

Where would one want to pick up some GLD at a nice risk/reward price point?

If GLD reaches rising channel support at (2), w...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - March 10, 2021

Don't miss our latest weekly webinar! 

Join us at PSW for LIVE Webinars every Wednesday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST.

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – March 10, 2021

 

Major Topics:

00:00:01 - EIA Petroleum Status Report
00:04:42 - Crude Oil WTI
00:12:52 - COVID-19 Update
00:22:08 - Bonds and Borrowed Funds | S&P 500
00:45:28 - COVID-19 Vaccination
00:48:32 - Trading Techniques
00:50:34 - PBR
00:50:43 - LYG
00:50:48 - More Trading Techniques
00:52:59 - Chinese Hacks Microsoft's E...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.