Posts Tagged ‘NEM’

The End of May – Heading into June with CASH!!!

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real – Nine Inch Nails

Were we wrong to cash out?  

It's hard to feel bad about taking a 19% profit off the table after just 6 months (in our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio) but we had another low-volume pump-job yesterday that sent some of the positions we closed up sharply and left us regretting our timing – just a little.  

Still, the time to sell your positions is when other people are buying, not while everyone is panicking.  We got great exit prices and, on the whole, it was fairly stress-free.  S&P 1,920 was our predicted top and we pulled the trigger to take the money and run at 1,910 because, as experience has taught us – it doesn't pay to be greedy! 

Last week and this week, I laid out my case for why the economy is not as good as it seems and certainly not good enough to be paying all-time highs for stocks.  As you can see from the chart on the left – I'm certainly not the only one who thinks so as the "smart money" has flown out of the market this year, taking advantage of each record high to sell, Sell, SELL!!!

We were a little more patient, we moved our Conservative Income Portfolio ($500,000) to cash at the end of March and avoided the April sell-off and have since been buying bargain stocks in that portfolio.  We had left our more aggressive Long-Term Portfolio ($500,000) on the table but this last leg of the rally left it up a ridiculous 19% for the year – and that's halfway to our best-case goal so it's a good time to take a break, step back, and see how the market handles early June.  

SPY 5 MINUTEIt's not like we can't find anything to do with our cash.  In additions to our usual Futures trading, we still have our Short-Term ($100,000), Butterfly ($100,000) and $25,000 Portfolios to play with and, since Wednesday
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Options Traders Busy at Newmont Mining Corp.

Today’s tickers: NEM, CALM, XRX, MCD, AEIS & JNPR

NEM - Newmont Mining Corp. – The gold producer’s shares started strong this morning, but earlier gains quickly gave way to losses and shares are currently down 3.00% to stand at $60.75 as of 3:25 pm in New York. Options on gold companies as well as options on a number of ETFs tracking miners and gold producers were very active today after gold prices climbed to new highs this morning. During the first couple of hours of the session one bullish trader utilized long-dated call options to position for Newmont Mining’s shares to potentially rally to new heights by expiration in January 2012. The investor purchased 5,800 deep in-the-money calls at the January 2012 $57.5 strike for a premium of $12.23 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher January 2012 $67.5 strike at a premium of $7.53 apiece. The net cost of putting on the spread amounts to $4.70 per contract. The trader is therefore prepared to make money should NEM’s shares trade above the average breakeven price of $62.20 through January 2012 expiration. Maximum potential profits of $5.30 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Newmont’s shares jump 11.1% over the current price of $60.75 to surpass $67.50 ahead of expiration day.

CALM - Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. – Options on the largest egg seller and distributor in the U.S. are more active than usual today perhaps on news the Jackson, Mississippi-based firm recalled more than a quarter of a million eggs purchased from Ohio Fresh Eggs because they may be contaminated with Salmonella. Cal-Maine Foods was reportedly alerted to contamination issues with the eggs by the FDA this past Friday. CALM’s shares reacted positively to the news this week, rallying more than 12.0% off Monday’s intraday low…
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RIMM Bear-Butterfly Strategist Prepares for the Worst

Today’s tickers: RIMM, HRB, CAT, DF, XLE, SKS, OCR & NEM

RIMM – Research in Motion, Ltd. – Shares in BlackBerry maker, Research in Motion Ltd., took a severe beating today after a Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. survey revealed more firms are choosing rival devices such as the iPhone, a sign the firm is relinquishing its share of the corporate market to its competitors. RIMM’s shares dropped 6.30% to an intraday- and new 52-week low of $42.72 in the final hour of trading. The price of the underlying stock, which reached a 13-month high of $88.08 on September 23, 2009, has since collapsed 51.5% lower to reach today’s value of $42.72. But, one options trader populating the longer-dated January 2011 contract today positioning for RIMM’s shares to nearly halve again by expiration. The investor initiated a bearish put butterfly spread, buying 1,100 puts at the January 2011 $27.5 strike for premium of $0.80 apiece, selling 2,200 puts at the January 2011 $22.5 strike for premium of $0.37 per contract, and buying 1,100 puts at the January 2011 $17.5 strike for premium of $0.18 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to $0.24 per contract. The investor stands prepared to accumulate profits if shares of the mobile device maker plummet 36.2% from the current price to breach the effective breakeven point at $27.26 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $4.76 per contract are safe inside the trader’s piggybank if the Canadian company’s shares collapse 47.3% lower to settle at $22.50 at expiration. The majority of options traders populated the near-term September contract where the September $40/$42.5/$45 strike puts were the most active.

HRB – H&R Block, Inc. – Bearish investors bombarded the provider of tax, banking, business and consulting services in afternoon trading after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its rating outlook on the company to stable from positive. The downgrade weighed heavily on HRB’s shares, which fell as much as 6.20% to an intraday- and new 52-week low of $12.54. Shares are currently down 4.95% at $12.71 with one hour remaining before the closing bell. Given the new 52-week low of $12.54, HRB’s shares are down 21.5% since trading at $15.97 on August 2, 2010. The stock has lost a total of 46.15% of its value since January 21, 2010, when shares reached the current 52-week high of $23.29. Investors wary of continued bearish movement in…
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Bulls Target Newmont Mining Corp. Call Options as Shares Near All-Time Highs

Today’s tickers: NEM, RIG, CAL & EWZ

NEM – Newmont Mining Corp. – Gold producer, Newmont Mining Corp., enticed bullish options strategists to the arena in the first half of the trading session with shares of the underlying stock rallying nearly 3.00% to a new 52-week high of $61.46 as of 12:15 pm (ET). Investors expecting the price of Newmont’s shares to continue to appreciate ahead of July expiration, and potentially break straight through its all-time high of approximately $62.72 secured back in early 2006, purchased approximately 1,300 call options at the July $65 strike for an average premium of $0.74 apiece. Call buyers at this strike price are poised to profit if shares of the gold company surge 6.95% to surpass the average breakeven price of $65.74 ahead of expiration day next month. Longer-term bullish behavior observed today took place at the sky-high September $75 strike where it looks like 2,000 calls were picked up at an average premium of $0.54 per contract. Investors long the calls make money if the gold producer’s shares jump 22.9% to trade above the average breakeven price of $75.54 by September expiration.

RIG – Transocean Ltd. – Shares of the international provider of offshore drilling services for oil and gas wells are currently up sharply by 7.85% to stand at $53.31 just before 12:30 pm (ET). RIG’s shares have roared back to life recently, rallying 28.55% in the past couple of weeks, from a 2-year low of $41.88 on June 9th, up to an intraday high of $53.84 today. Bullish options players populating the stock today are positioning for RIG’s shares to rebound higher by July expiration. Optimistic investors picked up approximately 1,000 calls at the July $55 strike for an average premium of $2.12 apiece. Traders long the July $55 strike calls profit if RIG’s shares rally another 7.15% from the current price of $53.31 to trade above the average breakeven point to the upside at $57.12 by expiration day next month. Buying behavior spread to the higher July $60 strike where at least 1,200 call options were purchased at an average premium of $0.73 per contract. Investors holding these contracts make money if shares of the underlying stock surge 13.9% to surpass the average breakeven price of $60.73 by July expiration. The overall reading of options implied volatility on Transocean plunged 17.1% to 61.61% by 12:35 pm (ET). The current 61.61%…
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Options on Halliburton Get Messy

Today’s tickers: HAL, IPG, AMGN, BP, COF, FXI, OMX, NEM & FSLR

HAL – Halliburton Co. – Making sense of options activity on oil company, Halliburton Co., this afternoon is difficult due to the chaotic and seemingly pattern-less trading taking place on the stock. Investors exchanged more than 200,000 contracts on HAL by 3:00 pm (ET), which represents approximately 37% of total existing open interest on the stock of 541,062 contracts. Frenzied options trading was catalyzed by news the firm is assisting in ongoing investigations regarding the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as HAL reportedly provided a variety of oilfield services to Deepwater Horizon rig, which is the rig that caught fire and sank last week. Options volume and options implied volatility on Halliburton jumped while its shares slipped 6.3% to $31.26. The surge in demand for option contracts on the stock, coupled with uncertainty regarding possible repercussions stemming from HAL’s connection to the situation in the Gulf of Mexico, lifted the overall reading of options implied volatility 25.4% to 44.13% as of 3:25 pm (ET). Trading activity is heaviest in the May contract with decent volume building in both call and put options. Some bearish investors bracing for continued share price erosion purchased about 2,200 puts at the lowest available strike – the May $25 strike price – for an average premium of $0.16 apiece. Buying interest in put options was also apparent at the May $26 strike where 1,800 puts were picked up for an average premium of $0.20 each. May $29 strike puts were the most heavily trafficked as more than 16,700 contracts changed hands by 3:22 pm (ET), versus previously existing open interest of just 2,743 contracts at that strike. But, the put action was certainly not one-sided as investors took to buying and selling the contracts, with buyers gaining the right to sell the stock at $29.00, and sellers receiving an average premium of $0.81 per contract in exchange for bearing the risk of having shares of the underlying stock put to them at $29.00. Similar two-way trading traffic in calls took place at out-of-the-money strike prices as some traders threw in the towel on bullish stances expiring in May. Meanwhile, contrarian players purchased out-of-the-money calls, perhaps to prepare for a potential rebound in the price per share ahead of expiration next month.

IPG – Interpublic Group of Cos., Inc. – Advertising and…
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Gold-Bull Buys Call Spread on Newmont Mining Corp.

Today’s tickers: NEM, EWZ, ZION, JCP, PCX, TSL, NTRI, TIVO, SQNM & KR

NEM – Newmont Mining Corp. – Shares of the gold mining company are up 2.90% to $51.74 this afternoon as gold stocks across the board rallied along with the price of the previous metal. Newmont’s shares recovered significantly since reaching a low point for the year 2010 of $42.87 back on January 29, 2010. The current price per NEM share of $51.74 represents an impressive 20.65% rally over its January low of $42.87. One options trader populating our screens today expects the good times at Newmont Mining to continue through March expiration. The investor purchased a debit call spread by picking up 5,000 calls at the March $55 strike for a premium of $0.52 apiece, marked against the sale of 5,000 calls at the higher March $57.5 strike for $0.17 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.36 per contract. The trader is prepared to pocket maximum potential profits of $2.14 per contract should Newmont’s shares rally another 11.15% to $57.50 by expiration day. Shares of the underlying stock must increase at least 7% from the current price in order for the call-spreader to breakeven on the trade at $55.36 per share.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Bearish options positioning on the Brazil exchange-traded fund, which generally reflects the price and yield performance of securities in the Brazilian market as measured by the MSCI Brazil index, indicates one investor is bracing for a pull back in the price of the underlying shares by April expiration. Shares of the underlying fund are trading 1.85% higher to $70.97 with approximately forty-five minutes remaining in the session. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the April $72 strike for a premium of $2.55 apiece in order to partially offset the cost of purchasing 10,000 put options at the lower April $70 strike for $2.73 each. The investor paid a net premium of $0.18 per contract for the bearish risk reversal transaction. The pessimistic play yields profits to the trader if shares of the EWZ trade beneath the breakeven price of $69.82 ahead of expiration in April. We note that shares traded as low as $62.79 on February 8, 2010, and failed to rally above $70.00 until the current session’s breakout.

ZION – Zions Bancorp. – A bullish options player celebrated the 2.80% rally in ZION’s share…
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Zero Hedge

Accused "FX Cartel" Members Joined Forces After Trying To "End" Each Other

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As federal prosecutors in Manhattan press ahead with the trial of three London-based currency traders - members of the infamous "FX Cartel" who allegedly colluded to move exchange rates in their favor during the brief moments before the daily fix - more amusing details from the cartel's group chat where most of the alleged collusion took place have started to emerge.

In one anecdote that helps explain the genesis of the cartel conspiracy, two of the three traders, former JPMorgan Chase & Co. trader Richard Usher and ex-Citigroup Inc. trader Rohan Ramchandani, share how they u...



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Phil's Favorites

Taxes and caps on carbon work differently but calibrating them poses the same challenge

 

Taxes and caps on carbon work differently but calibrating them poses the same challenge

There are different kinds of policies that can curb greenhouse gases. Climber 1959/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology

Virtually everything most people on earth do these days involves, either directly or indirectly, the combustion of oil, gas and coal. Burning these fossil fuels is generating carbon emissions, which accumulate in the atmosphere, contributing to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows.

Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why it’s time for investors to pay closer attention. In the chart below, we compare today’s setup to 2000 and 2007 and the market crashes that followed.  Note, though, that we have NOT broken trend support yet.

Similar to today, in 2000 and 2007 the S&P 500 made a...



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Chart School

History Rhymes with the Dow

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The next 10 years, or even the next 2 years will not be like any of the years in the past 10. Risk is moving closer and closer to the surface.

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Market risks coming to the surface:

1) Higher interest rates.

2) US Congress control.

3) China vs USA in trade.

4) World wide Leverage.

5) World wide liquidity issues.

6) US Pensions.

7) Corporate bond market....



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Digital Currencies

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

 

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

Five people died and more than 200 got sick during a 2018 E. coli outbreak, the largest in more than a decade. The bacteria was traced to contaminated romaine lettuce. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

In the wake of this year’s large E. coli outbreak, Walmart notified its leafy green suppliers that they must be using blockchain technology to trace their products before the end of 2019.

Walmart, one of the world’s largest retailers, has be...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For October 18, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) to report quarterly earnings at $1.27 per share on revenue of $7.15 billion before the opening bell. Philip Morris shares fell 0.07 percent to $84.50 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts expect PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...


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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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