Posts Tagged ‘NYT’

Monday Market Outlook – Finally Over S&P 2,000 – Now What?

SPY 5 MINUTE2,000 finally held!  

It was a really ugly hold but we did hold 2,000 on the S&P all day long on Friday and that, as I've said for a long time, is finally a signal we need to do a little bottom-fishing.  We have already been picking up some material stocks in our Live Member Chat Room, including adding BTU ($13.29) on Friday morning to our Income Portfolio, despite a Goldman Sachs downgrade that cost them 5% pre-market.

Coal has been getting a bad rap this year as China has slowed down and, of course, its environmentally unpopular (and 300,000 people marched in NYC this weekend for action on Climate Change) but the reality is, coal use isn't going away anytime soon.  

In fact, 65% of China's energy comes from coal and, for the first time ever, China passed the EU in pollution levels per capita with each person in China producing 7.2 tons of carbon dioxide on average compared with 6.8 tons per European and just 1.9 tons per Indian.  

Of course, none of them hold a candle to the US, where we proudly produce 16.4 tons of CO2 per person!  

Still, with 1.3Bn people, China has now passed the US in overall carbon emissions, contributing to a new Global Record of 40Bn tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 2014.  According to a recent UN study, at this rate, the theoretical limit for carbon in our atmosphere (before irreversible damage sets in) will be hit in just 30 years.  But don't worry folks, that's just science and we can always vote Republican and ignore it. cheeky

Remember – we ARE Koch!  

Emissions grew 4.2 percent in China, 2.9 percent in the U.S. and 5.1 percent in India last year. The EU’s pollution level declined 1.8 percent because of weaker economic growth.  So coal is not going away as soon as people think and we have been literally burning off the surplus this year.  In Europe, utilities are switching back
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Tesla Options Heat Up As Shares Slide

Options brief will resume September 27, 2012.

Today’s tickers: TSLA, NYT & LO

TSLA - Tesla Motors, Inc. – Shares in electric vehicle maker, Tesla Motors, Inc., are taking a hit today, down 7.8% at $28.27 as of 11:05 a.m. ET, after the company lowered its third-quarter and full-year revenue estimates and said it plans to issue more stock. Options volume on Tesla is nearly twice the stock’s average daily volume this morning, with some strategists preparing for further declines in the price of the underlying. Near-term bearish positioning in the front month is heaviest at the Oct. $26 strike where upwards of 2,100 put options changed hands against open interest of 905 contracts. It looks like traders purchased most of these contracts for an average premium of $1.05 apiece. Put buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month in the event that Tesla’s shares drop nearly 12% from the current price to settle below the breakeven point at $24.95. Bears also looked to the $28 strike put options expiring in October, buying around 800 contracts in the early going for an average premium of $2.01 each. The purchase of a 300-lot Oct. $29/$32 bear put spread on Monday prepared one strategist for an adverse move in the price of the underlying today. The trader appears to have purchased the spread for a net premium of $1.68 per contract yesterday afternoon, looking for a minimum 1.2% decline in the $30.70 share price at the time of the trade to the breakeven point at $30.32. Shares are currently trading well below the lower $29 striking price; maximum possible profits of $1.32 per contract are available on the strategy at October expiration as long as shares settle below $29.00. Finally, contrarian players positioning for a rebound in TSLA shares in the next four weeks picked up around 400 calls at the Oct. $29 strike for an average premium of $1.07 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration should the stock rally at least 6% over the current price to exceed $30.07.…
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Traders Take To Tiffany & Co. Options After Earnings, Guidance Disappoint

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, P & NYT

TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the stock going forward, with some strategists bracing for further declines in the price of the underlying, while others position for a rebound. Fresh interest building in the July $57.5 strike put, where more than 800 in-the-money contracts changed hands against open interest of 114 positions, appears mostly to be the work of buyers. Traders paid an average premium of $3.74 apiece for the put options and may profit at expiration in the event that Tiffany’s shares decline another 4.9% to settle beneath the effective breakeven price of $53.76. Meanwhile, a call spread in the August expiry looks for shares in the jeweler to post solid gains during the next few months. A 242-lot Aug. $57.5/$65 call spread purchased for an average premium of $2.50 per contract may result in maximum potential profits of $5.00 per contract should TIF’s shares soar 14.9% to top $65.00 by August expiration.

P - Pandora Media, Inc. – Shares in Pandora are moving sharply to the upside this morning after the provider of Internet radio reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday and an increase in target share price to $16.00 from $14.00 at JMP Securities. The stock rallied as much as 19.0% to $12.285 today, reaching their highest level since March, but trading in the January 2013 expiry puts suggests some strategists are securing disaster insurance on the stock. It looks like traders picked up 200 puts at the Jan. 2013 $4.0 strike for a premium of $0.25 apiece, perhaps under the expectation there could be catastrophic…
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Bullish Players Sink their Teeth into Krispy Kreme Calls

Today’s tickers: KKD, JPM, NYT & AEO

KKD - Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. – Bulls are bingeing on Krispy Kreme call options today after the firm sweetened its outlook for 2011 operating income to a range of $17 million to $20 million, up from previous estimates of $13 million to $17 million. The maker of the popular Original Glazed doughnut said it earned $2.4 million in the third quarter, or $0.03 a share, after the closing bell on Wednesday. Analysts, on average, were expecting KKD to post a third-quarter loss of $0.01 a share. Shares in Krispy Kreme jumped 19.8% following earnings to hit an intraday- and new 52-week high of $7.38 today. The better-than-expected earnings report and rosier outlook for next year’s performance inspired strong demand for call options on the doughnut maker. More than 5,480 options, nearly all of them calls, changed hands on Krispy Kreme by 12:55 pm in New York, versus overall previously existing open interest of 6,271 contracts. Investors purchased more than 1,340 calls at the December $7.5 strike for an average premium of $0.22 a-pop. Call buyers make money if Krispy Kreme’s shares rally another 4.6% over today’s high of $7.38 to surpass the average breakeven point at $7.72 by December expiration. Bullish sentiment spread to the January 2011 $7.5 strike where another 1,040 call options were picked up at an average premium of $0.34 apiece. Investors holding these contracts are poised to profit should shares in KKD surge 6.3% to trade above $7.84 ahead of expiration day in January. Krispy Kreme’s overall reading of options implied volatility is lower by 9.2% to stand at 52.47% as of 1:00 pm in New York.

JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – Shares of the financial services firm are on the mend, and one bullish options strategist…
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Mixed Sentiment Apparent in Bank of America Options Action

Today’s tickers: BAC, XRT, ZMH, GMCR, COF, YHOO, ZGEN & NYT

BAC – Bank of America Corp. – One massive options transaction on Bank of America today suggests one investor has made a bee-line for the hills. The trader observed ducking for cover appears to be expecting the recent rebound in the price of the financial firm’s shares to come to an abrupt end ahead of September expiration. Shares in BAC climbed 2.1% during the session to pin down an intraday high of $13.49. It looks like the options player sold shares of the underlying stock for approximately $13.35 each and purchased 100,000 calls at the September $14 strike for premium of $0.10 apiece. The trader, who is now short the stock and effectively long a stop loss, seems to be anticipating shares will falter ahead of expiration. Near-term pessimism by one trader was countered by longer-term bullish activity on BAC in the January 2011 contract where it looks like another investor put on a three-legged bullish combination strategy. The options optimist sold 10,000 puts at the January 2011 $12.5 strike at a premium of $0.84 each, purchased 10,000 calls at the January 2011 $14 strike for premium of $1.00 apiece, and sold 10,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $17.5 strike at a premium of $0.16 a-pop. The transaction nets out to $0.00 and positions the trader to make money if shares of the financial services firm rally above $14.00 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $3.50 per contract are secure in the trader’s piggy bank if the bank’s shares jump 29.7% to trade above $17.50 by expiration day in January. We note that open interest at each of the strikes described is sufficient to cover each of the three legs of the transaction. Therefore, it is possible that the seemingly bullish trade represents a closing transaction instead.

XRT – SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Options on the retail ETF were some of the most actively traded during the current session. The majority of the 171,000 contracts exchanged on the fund as of 2:50 pm ET were September contract puts and calls, but there were some longer-term positions established today, as well. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, earlier rallied as much as 1.35% to an intraday high of $38.71. One big options player hoping…
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Cisco lower ahead of earnings: Put selling noted

Today’s tickers: CSCO, NYT, DRYS, INTC, VIX, MON, USB, CROX, IPG, ELN, & WFC

CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. – Shares are off slightly by less than 1% to $19.42 ahead of earnings expected for release from the company this Wednesday. We observed a rash of put selling in the June and July contracts, a bullish sign from option investors on the stock. The in-the-money June 20 strike price saw some 4,700 puts sold for a premium of 1.40 apiece while the in-the-money July 20 strike also had about 4,500 puts sold for 1.61 per contract. Finally, the deeper in-the-money July 21 strike had some 4,400 puts shed for a rich premium of 2.23 apiece. Perhaps put-sellers see Cisco rebounding through the summer months.

NYT The New York Times Company – The media company has experienced a share price surge of more than 8.5% to $5.87 amid reports that the New England newspaper, The Boston Globe, is safe for now as NYT has not filed its intention to close the newspaper. NYT appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner late in the trading day as one investor appears to have sold 5,000 in-the-money puts at the July 7.5 strike price for a premium of 2.12 apiece in order to fund a bull call position in the October contract. The put premium helped fund the purchase of 15,000 calls at the October 10 strike for about 37 cents each. The trade yields a net credit of about 1.01 to the investor given the richer put premium received on the sale (1*2.12 – [3* 0.37] = 1.01). NYT plans to continue talks with its unions in order to avoid closing The Globe. The deadlines for negotiations have been extended to Sunday.

DRYS DryShips, Inc. – Shares of the shipping company have gained 13% to arrive at the current share price of $9.35. The drybulk carrier received a target share price increase to $12.00 from $10.00 by an analyst at Jeffries & Co. as well as an upgrade to ‘outperform’ at Oppenheimer. Bulls hungry for a continued near-term rally on DRYS picked up 12,500 call options at the May 11 strike price for an average premium of 25 cents apiece. The overall tone on the Greek fleet was optimistic as investors showed their preference for call options by trading calls more than five times to every put option in play. It…
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Zero Hedge

US Shale Firms To Spend $100 Million On West Texas And New Mexico Improvements

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Over a dozen top US energy firms have agreed to devote $100 million towards much needed improvements in West Texas and New Mexico, in order to help the regions cope with shortfalls in health care, education and civic infrastructure in the wake of the shale oil and gas boom, the group said on Sunday. 

Chevron, EOG Resources, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell are among 17 companies backing the Permian Strategic Partnership, as the cons...



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Phil's Favorites

Message from Jeff Bezos - SNL

 

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Chart School

The Power of the Dow Jones Cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again the data confirms cycles exists in the market. Value and other fundamental investors must concede cycles are in the stock market. [You can learn more about our Hurst Cycle tools here].

Previous Post Kitchin Cycle warned of market volatility

In the past this blog has posted the chart below, the Kitchin cycle or 900 periods, and you can see its success.

The cycle source:

.."Joseph Kitchin (1861–1932) was a British busine...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar Creating A Topping Pattern This Week?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar has spent the majority of the past 7-years inside of rising channel (1), as it’s created a series of higher lows and higher highs.

The 2018 rally has it kissing the underside of potential resistance this week at (2), where it could be creating a bearish reversal pattern. This one week action has NOT changed the upward trend in King Dollar.

If it breaks rising support at (3), odds favor that some selling pressure takes place in the US$, which metals would lov...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Cautious On Williams-Sonoma After Q3 Print

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related WSM 48 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session 28 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session ...

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Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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