Too High Tuesday? 10 Bullish Trade Ideas that Made Over 1,200%
by phil - May 13th, 2014 9:27 am
This is ridiculous.
As noted on Dave Fry's chart, the S&P made a new record high with narrow participation and essentially all of the gains were one big move in the Futures to reprice the index. I said yesterday we have been getting 50% of the day's volumes in the close and yesterday was no different and that closing volume is all dumping into the ETF, IRA and 401K suckers that are forced to buy.
We took a couple of big bats against the Dow's move up yesterday, adding a DIA put at $166.80 (see yesterday's Member Chat for details) as well as going long on DXD at $26.20 – both with leveraged options plays, of course.
We still have plenty of bullish trades to protect but, when we bein to cash out our winners and start buying short plays on the index – you can tell the winds are changing. Our 500% trade on DDM from Thanksgiving was scheduled to top out in April anyway – and we sold in May to go away.
That trade was one of our "10 Trade Ideas That Can Make (and some have already made) 500% in a Rising Market" and I had just as much trouble convincing people to go long in November as I'm having convincing people it's time to cash out in May.
Not all the trades are done, but a quick summary of those positions is:
- ABX 2015 $13/18 bull call spread at $2.80, selling 2015 $15 puts for $2.05 for net .75, now $2.35 – up 213%
- 8 QQQ Jan 2014 $75/80 bull call spreads for $3 ($2,400), selling 1 ISRG 2015 $300 put for $23.50 ($2,350) for net $50, now net $2,600 - up 5,100%
Thrilling Thursday – Tweeting our Way to Oil Profits!
by phil - March 14th, 2013 8:34 am
Isn't oil trading fun?
Just this morning I was able to tweet out a trade idea from early morning Member Chat at 4:47 to remind our followers that oil Futures (/CL) were a nice short idea at the $93 mark. Less than two hours later, at 7:26, we decided to take the money and run at $92.15 – which was good for an $850 per contract gain – enough to buy about 300 Egg McMuffins!
We were long on oil Tuesday Morning at $92 and our target for shorting was $93 but, as I said in the morning post: "hopefully, they'll go a little higher than that and we can add short positions using SCO or USO in Member Chat as things can turn very ugly next week as the thieves try to wriggle out of the contracts they signed today." We got a $1,000 upside trade followed by the $1,000 per contract drop from $93.47 (right on schedule, after inventories) back to just below $92.50 and then we got a run back to $93 again on Wednesday ($500 per contract profit), where I again laid out our reasons for shorting them again at $93, which was good for another $1,000 per contract gain and then this morning's $850, which was good for $4,350 PER CONTRACT's worth of gains in just two days.
Now, I'm not telling you this to point out how great I am at calling Futures trades – I'm telling you this to point out what a MASSIVE SCAM energy trading is and how something should be done to stop this farce, which is ROBBING the World's citizens of over $850Bn a year!
I often say to our Members: "We don't care IF a market is fixed as long as we can understand HOW it is fixed and place our bets accordingly," but that's not really true with oil trading, as this criminal enterprise (which I have written about for years) is more harmful to our everyday life than every hurricane, earthquake or terrorist act that has ever been committed on this planet – and they do it to us EVERY DAY OF EVERY YEAR!
I'm not able to go 5 for 5 on oil calls in two days because it's "fair" (and it's not a fluke, we do this all the time), I can do this because it's very, very UNFAIR…
Thank Jobs It’s Friday!
by phil - July 2nd, 2010 8:23 am
Do I know what the jobs data will be at 8:30? Nope.
Then why would I title a post "Thank Jobs It's Friday!" – what if the report sucks and we go down? Well, at this point, even if that does happen, I think that will be the end of it. We've been building up to this "terrible" jobs number all week and we got a rotten ADP Report and a rotten Unemployment Report so everyone is expecting a rotten Non-Farm Payroll report. When everyone expects the same thing, we like to bet against it. Sometimes we're wrong and sometimes we're right but you make some amazing money when you are right. The magnitude of the short squeeze that would follow a significantly BTE NFP Report could send up up 300 points or more on the day, likely with a big finish this afternoon and some follow-through on Tuesday as the rest of the world plays catch-up.
A bad report, on the other hand, is already baked into the cake and we have yet to test S&P 1,000 so we can expect support there. It wouldn't be pleasant, but we should be able to scramble and protect ourselves if we head lower so the smart move is to play for the mega-move higher, and that's where we are. Of course, it's also a balance issue. In our last Weekly Wrap-Up, we had the following open trade ideas going into June 21st (we had gotten bearish at the end of the previous week):
- APOL July $40 puts spread at .46, now .60 – up 30%
- BBY Jan $37 puts sold for $4, now $3 – up 25%
- BP July $30/32 bull call spread at $1, now .70 – down 30%
- YRCW at .21, now .15 – down 28%
- BP Oct $33/July $33 ratio backspread (3:5) at net $225, now $524 – up 132%
- TZA July $7 calls .08 (net of spread), now $1.50 – up 1,775%
- SIRI 2012 $1 puts sold at .33, still .33 – even
- USO July $33 puts at .51, now $1.08 – up 131%
- GLL July $37 puts, sold for $1.30, now .35 – up 70%