Posts Tagged ‘Personal Consumption’

GDP Friday – How Much Will Be Enough?

Can the S&P make 1,000 today?

As we can see from AlphaTrends chart, that's going to be a tough breakout and, even if we do make it, can we hold it?  In yesterday's post I said we were ready to switch off our brains and BUYBUYBUY the rally and our breakout levels did all hold yesterday but I decided, in Member Chat, that we needed to raise the bar slightly before we started shutting down our thought processes into the weekend.  We simply used the 2.5% lines of Dow 9,297, S&P 1,000 (interesting!), Nas 2,017, NYSE 6,438, Rut 562 and SOX 308 in my 10:16 Alert as our official buying breakouts but those same levels gave us a great indicator to get out of our longs and press our shorts as they ALL failed by 11:09.

Personal Consumption Q1 09

It is going to be very much up to the GDP report and we have a pretty low-bar expectation of -1.5% but that's a heck of an improvement over last quarter's -5.5% and this earnings season has been nothing if not a celebration of "getting worse more slowly."  As we all know, personal consumption makes up 70% of the GDP while government is about 18% and business investment just 12%.  Durable goods are only 8% of the GDP while consumables (which includes clothes and, obviously, food and fuel) are 20% and 40% is "services" but 1/4 of that number is Real Estate so that's a little confusing. 

As we know, not much is actually getting better but that's not the issue with GDP as we are measuring "growth" compared to the prior 4 quarters and our prior year was a disaster!  This is like when a raging fire causes a house to collapse and you stand there looking at the wreckage and say "at least most of the fire is out now."

The good news is the comps just keep getting easier and easier the worse things get so, at some point, you are bound to improve!  As you can see from Briefing.com's Real GDP chart on the left, there's a pretty wide disparity between the Real and Nominal GDP and that's because the Real GDP meansures the production of goods and services valued at constant prices.  So we aren't
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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The Beanie Baby Bubble

 

Animal Spirits: The Beanie Baby Bubble

Courtesy of 

We spoke to David Lau a few weeks ago about how they work with advisors. Check out the whole show here.

On today’s show we discuss:

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Zero Hedge

Iran Says S.Korea To Release $1BN Of Its Frozen Funds After Tanker Seizure

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Iran and South Korea have been engaged for the past two months in intense crisis meetings triggered by the Jan.4 Iranian seizure of the South Korean-flagged tanker MT Hankuk Chemi off the Islamic Republic's southern waters. From the start of the IRGC's capturing the vessel and detaining its crew, Tehran pointed to $7 billion to $10 billion in Iranian assets in Korean banks previousl...



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ValueWalk

Workhorse Blows Up; Buffett And Berkshire Get Busy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Workhorse Group Inc (NASDAQ:WKHS) blows up; Buffett and Berkshire get busy; the king of SPACs wants you to know he’s the next Warren Buffett.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Workhorse Blows Up

1) Another day, another blowup of one of the stocks I've warned my readers about...

On Monday, it was software supplier Ebix (EBIX). Yesterday, it was electric-vehicle developer Workhorse (WKHS), which tumbled 47% and was down ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Rising Inflation About To Hit U.S. Economy In Big Way?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation seems to be a thing of the past… but current trading in bond and commodity markets tell us that it could become a thing of the future!

Inflation hasn’t been an issue, or even on our radar, since the 1980s. Sure, the 2007 surge in oil prices offered some concern but the financial crisis killed any thoughts of inflation.

So what’s got us concerned about inflation in 2021?

Today we take a look at long-term charts of two potential inflation indicators: Crude Oil ...



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Digital Currencies

What Is Top Shot?

 

What Is Top Shot?

Courtesy of 

What I’m about to write is going to sound incredibly stupid. Some of it also might not be factually accurate, as I’m still very much a NoobWhale.  If you want to learn more, I suggest you start herehere, or ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

6 important truths about COVID-19 vaccines

 

6 important truths about COVID-19 vaccines

For many, distinguishing between fact and fiction is difficult. Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sarah Lynch, Binghamton University, State University of New York and Kanneboyina Nagaraju, Binghamton University, State University of New York

One of the biggest barriers s...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:46:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Low liquidity means price can MOVE fast either way!



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:52:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: if you have 100% of life savings in stocks alone, please adjust for a crash...



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Politics

Why the British abandoned impeachment - and what the US Congress might do next

 

Why the British abandoned impeachment – and what the US Congress might do next

The impeachment trial of Warren Hastings in 1788. Library of Congress

Courtesy of Eliga Gould, University of New Hampshire

Impeachment was developed in medieval England as a way to discipline the king’s ministers and other high officials. The framers of the U.S. Constitution took that idea and applied it to presidents, judges and other federal leaders.

Now that tool is in use, and in question, during ...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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