Posts Tagged ‘PFCB’

Good Fortune For Buyers Of Calls Ahead Of P.F. Chang’s/Centerbridge Deal

 

Today’s tickers: PFCB, INTC & DPZ

PFCB - P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. – Shares in Asian-themed restaurant operator, P.F. Chang's China Bistro, jumped 30.0% to $51.56 today after Centerbridge Partners LP agreed to take the Scottsdale, Arizona-based Company private in a deal valued at $1.09 billion, or $51.50 per share. The sharp move to the upside in shares of PFCB has some resulted in big gains for some traders sitting on bullish positions in the front month options. A couple of weeks ago the May $45 strike call was purchased more than 2,000 times at a premium of $0.30 apiece. The stock closed April 16th at $39.50 such that buyers of the $45 strike calls required a 15.0% move up in the shares to breakeven above $45.30 by expiration. Instead, shares in P.F. Chang's rallied more than 30.0% since the contracts were purchased, resulting in massive paper profits of $6.20 per contract given the calls currently display a last-traded price of $6.50 each. The trader or traders long the $45 calls are still holding onto the contracts as of 11:45 a.m. in New York. P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. reported first-quarter earnings and revenue slightly below expectations prior to the opening bell this morning.

INTC - Intel Corp. – Bullish positions are building in the weekly options on Intel Corp., with shares in the chip giant up better than 2.0% at $29.02 in the first half of the session, helping to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest in four years. Intel's shares traded up to their highest level since 2004 today and it looks like some strategists are positioning for the stock to extend gains this week. Volume in the weekly calls is heaviest at the May 04 '12 $29 strike, where more than…
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Technical Tuesday – Holding the Line on Light Volume

We closed April positive!

That's right, the Dow finished April with a 1.59 point gain, making 7 consecutive monthly advances.  April is, historically, the Dow's best performing month so we can take those 1.59 points and put them on the refrigerator and maybe take the Dow out for ice cream later to celebrate

The Russell can't come though, it fell 1.1% yesterday and, unlike the Dow, it wasn't jammed up 30 points into the close to maintain a winning streak that would impress all the people who don't bother to look behind the headlines.  The Russell did, however, manage to hold their 50 dma at 817 – or at least they only failed it by a little and, in a World that celebrates mediocrity – that's good enough for the MSM to crow about, isn't it?  

The NYSE is another broad index that was saved by it's 50 dma with 1,856 stocks in the index declining and 1,190 advancing on a day they fell just 0.4%.  That didn't stop 104 out of 2,627 stocks on the full Nasdaq from making new highs – defying gravity while AAPL took a little 3% dive on the day.  The S&P also fell 0.4% but the defensive dividend paying stocks in that index matched their 12-year highs – levels we haven't seen since just before the great crashes of 2,000 and 2008 – so all must be well!  

It's an interesting take on a defensive move as the actual Dividend Pay-Out Ratio has never been lower, barely holding 27 from a high of 63 in 2008, the last time the dividend-payers were anywhere near this popular.  What's going on is the S&P 500 have a lot of cash on their books and, just like the Fed, investors are sitting around like trained seals begging for MORE FREE MONEY fish – maybe if they learn to blow horns with their mouths?  

 

Stocks pay dividends, in part, to attract investors.  That's not going to happen in this market as you can't keep retail investors away if you beat them with a stick, can you?  No amount of bad data or poor earnings will scare investors out of owning stock – the retail ones anyway – as the professional money is bailing out
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Good Fortune For Some As Shares In P.F. Chang’s China Bistro Boom

 

Today’s tickers: PFCB, IMAX & VRA

PFCB - P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc. – Options on the owner and operator of two restaurant chains, P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner, were more active than usual this week following the Company’s fourth-quarter earnings report ahead of the bell on Thursday. Shares are up sharply today on a number of analyst upgrades, trading higher by as much as 8.1% to touch an intraday peak of $38.50. Traders that purchased calls on P.F. Chang’s yesterday despite the Company’s earnings miss, in some cases saw the value of their positions significantly increase overnight. It looks like investors purchased as many as 750 calls at the Mar. $35 strike yesterday for an average premium of $1.34 each. The calls today cost more than two times that amount, with the last traded price on the contracts up at $3.40. Finally, options traders positioning for shares to extend gains purchased some 250 calls up at the Mar. $40 strike at a premium of $0.60 apiece. Investors long the $40 strike calls stand prepared to profit in the event that shares in P.F. Chang’s increase 7.0% over the current price of $37.95 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $40.60 at March expiration. PFCB’s shares last traded above $40.60 back in July 2011.

IMAX - IMAX Corp. – Shares in the entertainment technology company are up 0.35% at $23.81 this morning, down 4.75% off a six-month high of $25.00 reached earlier in the week. The stock has rallied 90.0% off its October 2011 52-week low of $12.57, but options activity on IMAX Corp. today suggests one strategist expects the price of the underlying to reverse course in the near term. The stock and option combo initiated on IMAX in the first hour of…
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Options Portend Slump In Shares Of Dunkin’ Brands

Today’s tickers: DNKN, PFCB, DDD & PLCE

DNKN - Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. – A burst of activity in calls and puts covering Dunkin’ Brands Group may be one investor’s way of preparing for a less than savory third-quarter earnings report when the company reveals its performance on November 2. Shares in the operator of Dunkin Donuts and Baskin-Robbins fell 0.90% to $28.16 this afternoon, and are down roughly 11.8% off the company’s post-IPO high of $31.94. The options combo initiated in the November contract this morning yields maximum benefits to its owner if shares in Dunkin’ suffer a nearly 30.0% pullback in the next six weeks. It looks like the investor responsible for the trade sold around 500 calls at the Nov. $30 strike for a premium of $1.375 each, in order to cover the cost of buying a roughly 500-lot Nov. $20/$25 put spread at a net premium of $0.90 each. The trader pockets a net credit of $0.475 per contract on the three-way spread, which he keeps as long as shares in DNKN fail to rally above $30.00 through November expiration. Additional profits are available to the investor should shares breach the $25.00-level, while maximum possible gains of $5.475 – including the net credit – are realized by the trader in the event that DNKN’s shares plummet nearly 30.0% to trade below $20.00 at expiration day. As far as possible motives behind the three-legged spread go, the potential for a disappointing third-quarter report represents just one possible explanation, as performance in U.S. equities across the board has tended to turn on a dime on negative or positive headlines out of Europe. The investor responsible for the transaction may be taking an outright bearish stance on the stock, or may be using the position to hedge long stock in DNKN through earnings. The short calls at the $30.00 strike may require the trader to deliver approximately 50,000 shares of the underlying that he may or may not already own at expiration…
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Talbots Put Options in Fashion with Bearish Players

 Today’s tickers: TLB, PFCB, VZ, NDAQ, MTL & HSNI

TLB - Talbots, Inc. – Bearish traders donning Talbots put options this afternoon appear to be positioning for shares of the women’s apparel, shoes and accessories manufacturer to continue falling in the next couple of months. The clothing maker’s shares are down 5.05% in the final minutes of the trading day to stand at $8.08. TLB was cut to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ with a $10.00 share price target at Jefferies on Monday. Talbots’ February $7.0 strike put options are the most active today, with more than 6,000 contracts having changed hands at that strike ahead of the closing bell, versus previously existing open interest of 644 lots. Nearly all of the put options were purchased at that strike for an average premium of $0.19 each. Put buyers make money if TLB’s shares drop another 15.7% to trade below the average breakeven point at $6.81 by February expiration day. Longer-term bearish traders tried on May $7.0 strike put options for size, buying some 1,300 contracts for an average premium of $0.59 apiece. Talbots’ overall reading of options implied volatility ended the session 13.2% higher on the day at 52.01%.

PFCB - P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, Inc. – Put options are flying out of the kitchen at P.F. Chang’s this afternoon with shares of the Asian-inspired restaurant chain operator slipping 2.50% lower to $47.44 in the final 30 minutes of the session. Investor appetite for bearish put contracts follows reports out on Monday from the National Restaurant Association noting that, for the first time in three months, restaurant operators reported net declines in same-store sales and customer traffic levels in the month of November. Approximately 5,500 puts changed hands at the February $45 strike today versus paltry previously existing open interest of just 111 contracts at that strike. Volume in February $45 strike puts represents roughly 53% of the 10,415 lots of overall previously existing open interest on the restaurant operator. It looks like investors satisfied bearish outlook on…
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Motorola-Bull Cleans Up

Today’s tickers: MOT, RIMM, WMB, CAG, PFCB & SAI

MOT – Motorola, Inc. – Shares of the maker of the Droid smartphone fell in morning trading but recovered during the session to add as much as 3 pennies or 0.35% to arrive at an intraday-high of $8.39 this afternoon. Motorola appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner today after one options player appears to have booked profits on a previously established bullish position. It looks like the investor originally purchased roughly 28,000 calls at the September $7.0 strike for an average premium of $0.70 each back on August 19, 2010, when MOT shares were trading at a volume-weighted average price of $7.55. The appreciation in the price of the underling since the calls were purchased lifted premium on the September $7.0 strike calls, allowing the trader to sell the contracts for $1.35 in premium apiece today. Net profits on the transaction amount to $0.65 per contract. Next, it looks like the bullish player re-opened, or rolled, the position to the higher October $8.0 strike where approximately 28,000 calls were picked up at an average premium of $0.10 a-pop. The investor starts to make money on the fresh batch of calls if Motorola’s shares surge 8.5% over the current price of $8.39 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $9.10 by expiration. We note that the investor may walk away with profits on the new long call position before October expiration if circumstances going forward lift the premium on those calls and the trader opts to sell the position at an advantageous price.

RIMM – Research in Motion Ltd. – Options on the Blackberry maker are a hot ticket item today ahead of the firm’s second-quarter earnings report scheduled for release after the closing bell this afternoon. Frenzied trading ensued right out of the gate this morning with investors heavily trafficking in September and October contract call and put options. Shares are currently up 1.1% at $46.02 as of 1:45 pm ET, but earlier rallied as much as 2.3% to reign in an intraday high of $46.58. The overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock increased 5.1% in the first half of the session to top out at 58.22%, but has come off to stand just 2.6% higher on the day at 56.82%. Although more than 1.7 call options changed hands for each single put on…
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Phil's Favorites

Jack Dorsey's decision to quit Twitter is not a vote of confidence in future of social media

 

Jack Dorsey’s decision to quit Twitter is not a vote of confidence in future of social media

Courtesy of Theo Tzanidis, University of the West of Scotland

When Jack Dorsey made the sudden public announcement that he had quit as CEO of Twitter, it was only ever going to have happened in one place – Twitter itself. It reminded me very much of Elon Musk’s entertaining tweet adventures, as Dorsey tossed his resignation letter onto the social medi...



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Zero Hedge

Biden To Impose Tighter Travel Restrictions On Foreigners

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (0900ET): More reports about the new CDC-recommended travel restrictions have hit on Wednesday as the Biden White House has all but confirmed its plans to impose new restrictions on travel despite the WHO's pleas that South Africa not be penalized for warning the world about the new variant.

To be sure, the restrictions being considered by the administration would still allow travelers with up-to-date COVID testing (within the last 24 hours) to enter the country. Presently, vaccinated travelers must get tested within three days of boarding their fligh...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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