Options Trade Extends Downside Protection On Vale
by Option Review - June 12th, 2012 2:16 pm
Today’s tickers: VALE, LCC & PNC
VALE - Vale SA – The Brazilian metals and mining company’s shares have sustained sharp losses since last summer, with the stock currently trading at a 45.0% discount to the July 26th 52-week high of $33.74. Shares in Vale are in positive territory today, up 1.3% at $18.59 as of 11:00 a.m. in New York; however, the largest prints in the iron ore producer’s options today point to the potential for fresh two-year lows in the next few months. It looks like one strategist is rolling a bearish position from the front month out to the September expiry, selling a 2,592-lot Jun. $20/$23 put spread at $2.97 per contract to buy the 2,592-lot Sept. $16/$18 spread at a net premium of $0.69 each. Open interest in the front month puts is sufficient to cover the size of the transaction, although it is difficult to determine when and at what price the spread might have originally been purchased. The put spread could be a hedge to offset losses on a long position in the shares, or an outright bearish bet that shares in Vale have further to fall this year. The new Sept. $16/$18 spread yields profits – or downside protection – should shares in Vale decline 6.9% to trade below the breakeven price of $17.31 by expiration.
LCC - US Airways Group, Inc. – A sizable position was initiated in US Airways Group put options this morning ahead of the airline operator’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday and prior to second-quarter earnings due out next month. Shares in LCC are up 1.15% just before midday to stand at $11.50 and stand 120.0% higher since the beginning of the calendar year. It looks like approximately 5,000 put options were purchased at the July $10 strike for an average premium of $0.57 apiece, perhaps as some strategists lock in gains or speculate on a possible pullback. The cheapened cost of downside…
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Three-Legged Bull Prepares for a PNC Rally
by Option Review - March 4th, 2011 6:30 pm
Today’s tickers: PNC, CEDC, SPLS & GILD
PNC - PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. – Shares in the financial services firm are down 1.00% at $60.34 in early-afternoon trade, but activity in May contract call and put options suggests one strategist sees shares in PNC rising sharply in the next few months. The three-legged bullish player appears to have sold 5,000 puts at the May $55 strike for a premium of 1.39 each, purchased the same number of calls at the May $62.5 strike for a premium of $2.15 per contract, and shed 5,000 calls up at the May $67.5 strike at a premium of $0.68 a-pop. The options trader paid a net premium of $0.08 per contract for the transaction, and stands ready to profit should PNC’s shares reverse course and rally 3.7% over the current price of $60.34 to exceed the average breakeven price of $62.58 by expiration day in May. The investor responsible for the trade could accumulate maximum potential profits of $4.92 per contract if the firm’s shares jump 11.9% to trade above $67.50 before the options expire. PNC’s shares last traded above $67.50 back in May 2010. The financial services provider reports first-quarter earnings before the opening bell on April 21, 2011.
CEDC - Central European Distribution Corp. – Near-term options activity on the vodka producer this morning suggests some investors expect the pain of Central European Distribution Corp.’s post-earnings hangover to stick around through March expiration. Shares in CEDC lost 11.2% today to trade at $12.38, the lowest recorded price for the stock since April 2009. The alcohol beverage provider’s shares dropped 45.8% during the trading week, from a closing price of $22.85 on Monday, to today’s low of $12.38. Put buyers in the March contract, however, do not seem to think CEDC has hit…
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Mixed Trading in Career Education Corp. Options
by Option Review - September 23rd, 2010 4:19 pm
Today’s tickers: CECO, ROST, LSI, ADBE, AVNR, PNC & ODP
CECO – Career Education Corp. – Shares of the for-profit provider of education geared toward career-oriented disciplines rallied as much as 10.9% during the session to secure an intraday high of $23.00 on analyst reports stating the industry is likely to rebound as bearish investors close out short positions. Options traders employed a mix of bullish and bearish strategies on the stock ahead of the release of the Education Department’s timeline for regulations on for-profit education industry firms tomorrow. One cautious investor prepared for CECO’s shares to falter ahead of October expiration by purchasing a ratio put spread. The options trader picked up 500 puts at the October $22 strike at a premium of $1.15 each, and sold 1,000 puts at the lower October $19 strike at a premium of $0.20 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.75 per contract. The investor is poised to profits should Career Education’s shares fall 7.6% from today’s high of $23.00 to breach the effective breakeven price of $21.25 by expiration day next month. Maximum potential profits of $2.25 are available to the trader if CECO shares plummet 17.4% to settle at $19.00 at expiration. In contrast, bullish players looking for a near-term rally picked up roughly 3,200 calls at the October $23 strike for an average premium of $1.02 each. Investors make money if shares gain 4.4% to surpass the average breakeven point at $24.02 by October expiration. The most optimistic traders purchased approximately 1,000 calls at the October $25 strike for an average premium of $0.43 a-pop. Call buyers at this strike stand ready to profit should shares surge 10.55% and exceed the average breakeven price of $25.43. Options implied volatility on stock is up sharply ahead of the Education Dept. announcement, and currently stands 11.6% higher on the day at 61.28%, as of 3:40 pm ET.
ROST – Ross Stores, Inc. – Shares of the operator of off-price retail apparel and home accessories stores increased as much as 2.3% during the trading session to secure an intraday high of $56.12. Ross Stores appeared on our scanners due to near-term activity in call options. It looks like the majority of trading in October contract calls is the work of one investor booking profits and rolling a previously purchased chunk of calls to a higher strike price. The investor likely…
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Wrong Way Weekly Wrap-Up
by phil - March 6th, 2010 8:34 am
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This whole week did not feel right to me.
We were too bearish as I had expected a bogus commodity rally in last weekend's wrap-up but I didn't expect it to persist for a week, even as the dollar held it's ground above 80, a 10% pullback off the top, when oil was $40, copper was $1.50 and gold was $850. Now oil is $80 (up 100%), copper is $3.35 (up 123%) and gold is $1,135 (up 33%). Let's say gold is a true indicator of dollar weakness – that means that only 33% of oil and copper's move up can be attributed to the 10% drop in the dollar (not that even that makes sense but we'll give it to them). Can the rest be attributed to demand?
Certainly not with copper. Global copper consumption was down 1.9% in 2009 and Q1 2010 is lower than any quarter since Q1 2009 and even Barclays' very aggressive targets for China growth only bring global demand up 2.5% this year – whch would just about bring us back to 2007 levels of consumption. That, of course, also assumes a rebound in housing construction – something we are not seeing at the moment. Also, China spent $700Bn last year stimulating their economy and one of the ways they did this was to stockpile copper. As you can see from the chart – that too appears to be winding down and even Goldman Sachs has abandoned the bullish side of copper at this point.
Oil is just as silly. According to the EIA, global oil consumption is not expected to return to 2007 levels until late 2011 – and that is with some very rosey estimates of a global econonomic recovery – exactly the type of thing that can be derailed by high oil prices! Mighty China's consumption is projected to go from 8.66Mbd this year to 9.13Mbd in 2011, a 500,000 barrel increase. Last week, the US had a build in inventories of 4Mb – we just send those over to China and everyone is happy! I've already had my say on oil demand this this weekend, so let's just move on…
Let's just say I'm a little skeptical about any market moves that are…
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Microsoft Option Traders Geared Up For Disappointment
by Option Review - July 23rd, 2009 4:35 pm
Today’s tickers: MSFT, CMCSK, HIG, PNC, F, WFC, XLU & FXI
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PNC Short Sellers Wade In
by Option Review - March 6th, 2009 11:34 pm
Today’s tickers: PNC, GT, ROH, WMT, CX, PG & XLF
PNC – PNC Financial Services Group – Shares have fallen over 12% to $17.60 and put action today indicates that there may be more down-days to come. At the March 15 strike price nearly 14,000 puts were sold for an average premium of 1.78 per contract. We believe this sale could be the work of an investor who is short the stock initiating a covered put strategy. By taking in the premium today, this investor stands ready to take delivery of the shares at $15 come expiration. The risk to this trader is that shares are remain stable above the strike ahead of delivery and thereafter rebound, in which case he has to buy back at some point. But, the trade would yield a satisfactory outcome if shares continue to fall below $15 by expiration in which case the investor has his short position alleviated with a long put holder putting the stock to him. In the meantime this investor retains the full premium of 1.78. At the April 10 strike price, more typical put buying was seen given the fall in shares today. Over 5,500 puts were picked up for about 1.65 apiece, indicating that investors do expect that shares will continue to fall.
GT – The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company – A victim of the decline in auto sales, Goodyear has fallen 4.5% to a new 52-week low, touching down at $3.40 today. Despite the depressing news plaguing the auto industry from all sides, one option investor sees the world through rose-tinted shades and initiated to purchase of 20,000 calls at the January 2010 7.5 strike price for 50 cents per contract. Shares will need to rally like there’s no tomorrow and increase by 135% in order to breach the breakeven share price of $8.00 by expiration next year. Option implied volatility for GT currently stands at 128%. Lately we have noticed similar structured trades using optimistic options plays in both Ford and GM.
ROH – Rohm and Haas Company – Shares have jumped over 17% to $63.60 amid news that discussions over merger resolution have resumed between ROH and Dow Chemical Co. We can only speculate as to how the discussion will turn out and scant information is available at the present time. The uncertainty has created a veritable hot bed of frenzied trading among option…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW.
