Posts Tagged ‘political gridlock’

THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND OUR ECONOMIC PLIGHT

Pragcap argues that the U.S. is in a balance sheet recession, not a gov’t debt crisis, and not a banking crisis (Geithner, Bernanke and Paulson all misdiagnosing the problem).  And it won’t end till 2012 at the earliest. – Ilene 

THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND OUR ECONOMIC PLIGHT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Few will argue against the fact that the U.S. economy is sputtering.  For several years now I have been arguing that the government misdiagnosed our problems and subsequently applied the incorrect cure.  If we take a look under the hood at the growth drivers of our economy we can reveal convincing evidence showing that this was in fact the case.

The following chart shows 30 years of US GDP along with potential output.  The blue line represents actual GDP while the red line shows potential GDP.  This represents what economists call the output gap.

output gap THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND OUR ECONOMIC PLIGHT

(Figure 1)

At the current levels we are running an output gap of just over $1.2T.  This merely means that the U.S. economy would be producing $1.2T more in total GDP if we did not have so much idle capacity.

The math behind the U.S. economic growth of the last 100 years is fairly straight forward.  Economists describe GDP in mathematical format as follows:

Y=C+I+E+G

Y = GDP

C = Personal Consumption Expenditures

I = Fixed Private Investment

E = Net Exports/Imports

G = Government Consumption Expenditures

While all four components matter to the economy the C component (at roughly 71%) is the coaching staff, offense and defense of this football team.   Let’s just call the other three components “special teams” – important, but far less so in the grand scheme of things.   What’s happened to this crucial component of the U.S. economy in the last three years has been remarkable to say the least.  There has been a dramatic stagnation in personal consumption expenditures (PCE).  If we take a look at the historical data it’s truly incredible.  PCE grew at an average rate of 7.5% for almost 50 straight years.  Even more incredible is that this growth has been almost entirely uninterrupted.

PCE THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND OUR ECONOMIC PLIGHT

(Figure 2)

PCE1 THE UNFORTUNATE MATH BEHIND OUR ECONOMIC PLIGHT

(Figure 3)

When the Nasdaq bubble imploded, American balance sheets were cracked, but not shattered.  Slowly, they began to come back.  But as we all know now a far more nefarious bubble was brewing.  One based on pure debt and speculation.  When the housing bubble imploded in…
continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

What's behind the current wave of 'corporate activism'?

 

What's behind the current wave of 'corporate activism'?

Steffen Böhm, University of Exeter; Annika Skoglund, Uppsala University, and Dan Eatherley, University of Exeter

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of what appears to be a new breed of business person: the corporate activist. Hardly a week goes past without the head of some blue chip or other publicly agitating for a better world, be they ...



more from Ilene

Kimble Charting Solutions

Connect Series Webinar September 2018

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We cover dominating patterns in major global Indices, sectors, commodities and the metals markets.  We produce chart pattern analysis and empower people to improve entry and exit points.

To become a member of Kimble Charting Solutions, click here.

...

more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

Global Return August 2018 Commentary: Thinking Differently

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Return Asset Management commentary for the month ended August 31, 2018; discussing Yahoo’s business model.

Dear Friends,

For the month of August, we generated a net return of 2.09%.1 We ended the month with 18% of assets in cash and had a net market exposure of 29%.

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Below is a new section we’re calling...

Think Differently

The purpose of this section is to...



more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

Investors Are Most Bearish Global Growth Since 2011 As They Go "All-In" US Decoupling

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even as the 244 respondents to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey (who manage $724BN in AUM) plowed into US equities, as their September allocation to US stocks rose again, up 2% to 21%, the highest since Jan '15, making the US the most favored equity region globally for the second month running, amid bets the record divergence between the US and the rest of the world will continue for the indefinite future (or simply hoping upward momentum persists)...

...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

BankUnited Downgraded By Morgan Stanley On Headwinds Facing Mid-Cap Banks

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BKU Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2018 BankUnited's Earnings Outlook

Mid-c...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. (Read the article I mentioned in the comments section, "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come".) ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford and Sarah Zipp, University of Stirling

Nike r...



more from Our Members

Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



more from Biotech

Chart School

Gold stocks, Elliot Wave and Volume

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Whom ever paints the chart with Elliot wave always has to try and sideline their bias. Elliot wave can work when it applied correctly and the chart is friendly to receive its application.

More from RTT Tv





Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.








Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of ...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

A history of Bitcoin - told through the five different groups who bought it

 

A history of Bitcoin – told through the five different groups who bought it

GeniusKp/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Dave Elder-Vass, Loughborough University

The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value are just the latest in a series of spectacular peaks and troughs since it was created in 2009. (Though its price has been falling recently, it remains five times higher than last April, before the l...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>