Posts Tagged ‘private sector jobs’

Jobs Increase by 136,000; Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7%; BLS Refused To Address My Question On Seasonality; Part-Time Work up by 738,000 in 2 Months

Jobs Increase by 136,000; Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7%; BLS Refused To Address My Question On Seasonality; Part-Time Work up by 738,000 in 2 Months

Courtesy of Mish

This morning the BLS reported an increase of 136,000 jobs. Headline unemployment was unchanged at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let’s look at a couple questions from a live Q&A session. The BLS took questions in advance.

Seasonality Question Unanswered

I asked the BLS a question regarding increasing amplitude in seasonal adjustments twice, once early in the day yesterday and once again today right at the beginning of the session. The BLS did not answer it.

The exact question I submitted is in the addendum to BLS Live Question and Answer Session on Friday, April 2nd

The BLS had plenty of time to answer or at least email me. They did neither.

From the live-chat with the BLS here are a few questions they did answer.

From Madeline: Is there an estimate for how many census workers will be hired for the current census and when those hires will occur? Are these employees full, or part-time? How does the BLS treat these employees? Are they counted as "regular" employees?

Laura Kelter (BLS-CES):
Madeline, thanks for your questions. Current information on the census intermittent worker impact on CES estimates can be found at Census 2010 temporary and intermittent workers and Federal government employment. To be considered employed in the CES survey, workers need to receive pay for any time during their pay period including the 12th of the month. Workers getting paid for just one hour would be considered employed. The CES survey cannot distinguish between full- and part-time workers.

From Bill: Hi. The headline payroll number is seasonally adjusted, and the hiring for the 2010 Census is NSA. How would you suggest adjusting for the 2010 Census hiring to determine the underlying trend (not counting the snow storms!)?

Michele Walker (BLS-CES):
Thanks for your question Bill. There is an adjustment made for the 2010 Census. Before seasonally adjusting the estimates, BLS makes a special modification so that the Census workers do not influence the calculation of the seasonal factors. Specifically, BLS subtracts the Census workers from the not-seasonally adjusted estimates before running seasonal adjustment using X-12. After the estimates have been seasonally adjusted, BLS adds the Census workers to the seasonally adjusted totals. Therefore,…
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Zero Hedge

An American Horror Story: Rabobank On The Recession Of 2020

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Philip Marey via Rabobank,

Summary
  • While the outlook for 2020 remains sketchy, heavily dependent on non-economic factors, we now expect GDP to fall by 6% in 2020.

  • With a slowdown in February and a sharp contraction of the economy in March, we expect GDP growth in Q1 to be negative (-5% quarter on quarter at an annualized rate).

  • However, the most extreme economic growth figure is likely to be Q2 GDP growth with the lockdown continuing through at least April and l...



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Phil's Favorites

Largest French Bank Lost $200MM On Equity Derivative Trades As Market Crashed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

BNP Paribas SA, the largest French bank, lost hundreds of millions of dollars on complex stock trades as markets crashed in March, Bloomberg reports. Traders at the Paris-based bank, which together with SocGen has long carved out a niche in sophisticated derivative trades which worked great as long as the market was levitating unperturbed - lost an estimated €200 ($219 million) on equity derivatives once the market tumbled. According to Bloomberg, the trades that went awry included dividend futures and structured products.

BNP lost about 1...



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ValueWalk

Public pensions face liquidity crunch amid volatility

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Public pensions have had weak liquidity for a long time, but the recent volatility has made a bad situation even worse. S&P noted that pensions‘ investment horizons are decades long. As a result, many funds claim that market turmoil doesn’t affect their returns because they have plenty of time to ride out volatility. However, funds with weak liquidity don’t have that luxury in the current volatility.

Q1 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Public pensions in liquidity stress

S&P Global Ratings analyst Todd Kanaster and team said in a recent report that because of ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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