Posts Tagged ‘Putin’

Weakening Wednesday – Market Picture Begins to Look Grim

This is not pretty.

As you can see on our Big Chart, we've failed the 50 dma on the S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE and Russell and the Russell failed its 200 dma long ago.  We're still waiting for the Dow to cross below 16,940 and confirm the carnage but we made those bets long ago with our DXD Oct $24 calls, which are now 0.70 (up 55%) from our 0.45 entry back on 9/18.

In fact, we already took 1/2 of those calls off the table at 0.85 last week so, essentially, the remainder is a free put option on the Dow for the next three weeks – with DXD at $24.45, so we gain every penny from here on up as the Dow falls.  

That's what hedges are supposed to do, of course.  We discussed that in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, where we also demonstrated a live Futures trade on the Russell (/TF Futures) that made $500 on the 2:30 bounce.  That bounce was very easy to predict because THE MARKET IS MANIPULATED and all we had to do was wait for the same fake spike that we get at the end of every quarter, courtesy of the Fed and their fellow Banksters:

SPY  5  MINUTEWhat's scary about yesterday's flood of money ($230Bn in two days) wasn't just the size of the pump job, but the ineffectiveness of it.  The volume was still anemic and declining shares outpaced advancing shares by almost 2:1 in yesterday's "mixed" trading.  

In reality, it wasn't mixed at all as big traders took advantage of every penny that moved into the market as they told their brokers to sell, SELL!!!

Still, it's not the end of the World just yet – only close to it, and we can still turn this puppy around by holding the line on the Dow as well as Russell 1,100 and Nasdaq 4,500.  This market has been amazingly resiliant in 2014 so we're not going to be complacently bearish the same way we (thank goodness) did not let ourselves get complacently bullish this summer.  


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Wednesday Worries – Putin Puts Pressure on Ukraine

 photo putin_zps43535164.gifNow what?  

Well, same old, same old really.  As the US and Europe ratchet up the sanctions, Putin has ordered "retaliatory measures" of an unspecified nature and has massed more troops along the Ukraine boarder:

"Political tools of economic pressure are unacceptable, they contradict all norms and rules," he said. "In that connection, the government of Russia has already proposed a series of retaliatory measures against the so-called sanctions of certain countries. I think that in current conditions, with the goal of protecting the interests of domestic producers, we could certainly think about that." he added.

SPY 5 MINUTEIn recent days, Russian regulators have banned shipments of some European fruits and vegetables and raised questions about the safety of products from MCD in Russia, threatening to ban their sale. Officials deny any political motivation for those moves.  wink  

Russia's Vedomosti newspaper reported Tuesday that the government was considering a partial or total ban on overflights of Siberia by European airlines, which use the route to shorten trips from Europe to Asia.  

European markets are already suffering with Italy dropping 2.9% this morning on news that it has officially slipped back into a Recession with GDP falling 0.2% in Q2 – a far cry from the +0.2% predicted by leading economorons.  The IMF has cut their optimistic growth estimate for Italy to 0.3% in 2014 and dropped Spain to 1.3%.  Spanish markets are down 2% today as well.  

We decided this was a good time to buy this morning and, at 6:58 this morning, I put up this chart for Members in our Live Chat Room, saying:

Check this out – all hitting the S1 lines so far:

It's certainly worth playing for a small bounce at


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Putin for Pensions?

Courtesy of Leo Kolivakis


Submitted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse.

Greg Bryanski of Thomson Reuters reports that Russia’s Putin sees economy boost from higher pensions:

 Russian pensioners who will have 46 percent more money in 2010 than this year will provide a much needed boost for the flagging economy as they spend, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.

‘Our decision to increase pensions may contradict (the goal of maintaining macro stability). But at the same time it is a stimulus. It is consumption,’ Putin told a pensions conference in Moscow.

Putin said the pensioners, who spend 80 percent of their meagre income on consumption, shun expensive imported goods and tend to buy domestically produced ones.

Russia, hit harder by the economic crisis than most other major emerging economy, is very slow to recover due to the very weak domestic demand and Putin has vowed to continue stimulus policies, helping the demand recover.

Russia is raising pensions by 35 percent in 2009 and plans to raise them further in 2010, envisaging to spend a staggering 10 percent of GDP on pensions and other social benefits.

As a result of the increase, the average pension will rise to 8,000 roubles ($277.4), breaching the minimum subsistence level and achieving a replacement ratio of 39.7 percent on the average post-crisis salary.

The pensions increase will also bring an eight percentage points hike in social security taxes to 34 percent of income from 2011, a move generally opposed by businessmen.

So what gives? Did the Christmas spirit strike Vladi early this year? Or could it be that polls are showing support for Putin and Medvedev is falling:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has fallen to an eight-month low, a poll said on Wednesday, as faith in Russia’s leaders is tested by an economic crisis that has put more than one million people out of work.

Despite a sharp deterioration in the economy, Putin and ally President Dmitry Medvedev have enjoyed high ratings since they took up their posts last year. But polls have shown their public approval fall steadily in recent months.

Public trust in the work of Putin fell from a peak of 72 percent in mid-October to 65 percent on November 22, the lowest point since March, according to weekly poll figures posted on the


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On Iran, oil prices and how the Hajj f$#/ed Iran

Courtesy of Cheeky Bastard

After Iran had broken off the negotiations over its nuclear program and refused to ship some of its uranium supply to France, and other western countries, talk about the imminent attack have, once again, started to make the rounds. In his recent interview with the British Daily Telegraph , French foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, expressed his deep concern ( as if ) over Israel. As you might know, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited his Russian colleague Vladimir " I can kill you with my bare hands, and I will if you don’t STFU and do as I say " Putin to discuss the potential backing of Israeli war efforts against Iran. The Jerusalem Post reported that the conversation between the two tsars …. uh, i mean, prime minister was focused on the potential Russian arms backing of Iranian military. This is the short excerpt from the article in The Jerusalem Post:

Israel Radio reported that Netanyahu leased a private jet since he knew using an Israel Air Force jet would raise the suspicions of the Israeli media.  For the purpose, his office used a plane of the company Merhav, a company owned by Israeli mogul Yossi Miman, one of the shareholders of Channel 10 and EMG, an Egyptian company supplying gas to the Israel Electric Company. Miman was not directly involved in leasing the jet, as this was done through a company he owns.  The PMO and Merhav refused to divulge the cost of the flight. Israel Radio further reported that the plane took off from a terminal in Ben Gurion International Airport which is mostly out of use.

Israeli media outlets speculated on the secretive nature of Netanyahu’s Russian visit.  One reasoning was that Netanyahu tried to persuade Putin about not backing the Iranian military efforts with shipments of Russian weaponry to Iranian military.  Some journalist even reported that Netanyahu had promised Putin, that the dispute over a defense shield in Eastern Europe will be resolved shortly, if Putin stays clear from providing any help to Iranian government. After the talks were over, president Barack Obama publicly announced that the project of an Eastern European defense shield will soon come to an end.

There was some speculation brewing over the potential pan-Arabist unification if Israel attacks Iran, and that the potential Arab block could easily halt any global


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Phil's Favorites

Must the president be a moral leader?

 

Must the president be a moral leader?

President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton, during the funeral for former President George H.W. Bush. AP Photo/Alex Brandon, Pool

Courtesy of Michael Blake, University of Washington

The best presidents – including figures such as Abraham Lincoln and George Washington – are celebrated not only as good leaders, but as good men. They...



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Zero Hedge

"This Time Is Not Different" - Saxobank Warns The Temporary Calm Won't Last Long

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

By Christopher DEMBIK, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis, Saxobank

Investors seeking to track the probability of an incoming US recession must familiarise themselves with the yield curve, a key indicator.

Based on the market’s favorite indicator, the yield curve, the risk of US recession is becoming increasingly credible. Hopes for growth improvements may vanish quickly if policymakers don’t step in to stimulate the economy

Negative wealth effect due to lower house prices

Recession probability models for the US have been all over the place of late. Saxo Bank uses the recession probability tracker from the Federal Reserve Bank ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Feb 17, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

The “V” shape bounce continues in unrelenting fashion as bulls are stampeding bears in 2019!  All due to a little “patience” from the Federal Reserve.  It is really quite breathtaking but we have seen it repeatedly the past decade as the Federal Reserve pours gas on the market.  Hopes for a deal with China also spurred the action upward.  Rallies (both with gap ups) on Tuesday and Friday provided the juice this week.   The S&P 500 is back over its 200 day moving average after being below for 46 days – it’s longest period of time below that level since March 2016.

Mat Klody, chief investment officer at Keebeck Wealth Management, told MarketWatch that the major benchmarks’ steady march higher since the beginning of the year is being driven &#x...



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ValueWalk

JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky On Partnering With Apple [Full Transcript]

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky Speaks to CNBC’s Jim Cramer Today

Image source: CNBC Video Screenshot

WHEN: Today, Friday, February 15, 2019

WHERE: CNBC’s “Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer

The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with JNJ CEO Alex Gorsky and CNBC’s Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer” (M-F 6PM – 7PM) today Friday, February 15. The following is a link to video from th...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gasoline bullish breakout could fuel higher prices, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are we about to pay much higher prices at the gas pump? Possible!

This chart looks at Gasoline futures over the past 4-years. Gasoline has become much cheaper at the pump, as it fell nearly 50% from the May 2018 highs. The decline took it down to test 2016 & 2017 lows at (1). While testing these lows, Gasoline could be forming a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern over the past few months.

Joe Friday Just The Facts- If Gasoline breaks out at (2), we could all see higher prices at the gas pump. If a breakout does...



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Insider Scoop

10 Stocks To Watch For February 15, 2019

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects PepsiCo, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) to report quarterly earnings at $1.49 per share on revenue of $19.52 billion before the opening bell. PepsiCo shares rose 0.2 percent to $112.82 in after-hours trading.
  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported upbe...


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Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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