Posts Tagged ‘RAI’

Fully “Fixed” Friday – Extend and Pretend Edition

SPY 5 MINUTEAll fixed!

Greece is getting another $229Bn at 3.5% with about 30 years to pay it from the EU (ie. Germany and France) and private bond-holders will share about 1/3 of the pain by "voluntarily" renegotiating their own notes.  Sounds like a really great offer, right?  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Another $630Bn of already promised emergency aid has now been places into a very slushy fund that will now allow the EU to throw money at any nation that so much as sneezes – WHETHER OR NOT THEY ASK FOR ASSISTANCE.  This will allow them to play economic Whack-A-Mole, putting out all the little Euro-zone fires until that money runs out (about 6 months at the EU’s current burn rate).

All this fantastic news from Europe has sent the Dollar down to test the 74 line and that was down from 75.37 just ahead of yesterday’s open and that’s a 1.8% drop so we would expect our indexes to go up at least 1.8% – BUT – none of them did.  In fact, the Nasdaq only gained 0.72% and the Russell was up 1.07% and the Dow was up 1.21% and the S&P was up 1.35%.   The NYSE, which had been our perennial laggard, did the best yesterday – gaining a close, but still no cigar 1.57%.  

Will we make it up today or is this an indication that things may not be quite so good as they seem?  After the close yesterday, I did a news round-up for our Members and there is still plenty to worry about and we took a stab at some SPY Weekly (today) $135 puts at .79 for our aggressive $25K Virtual Portfolio on the off-chance they "fix" the US debt ceiling and accidentally make the Dollar strong again.  At the moment, we are still playing our short lines in the futures, where we’ve been scalping nickels and dimes since my 3:23 am Alert to Members (if you are not a Member, you can sign up here), where I said:  

I like shorting the Futures here:  S&P (/ES) at 1,346, Nas (/NQ) 2,415, Dow (/YM) 12,720 and Rut (/TF) 842.6 – as long as 74.20 hold on the Dollar, we should get a bit of a sell off so these are levels to look for as the Dollar heads


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Option Players Construct Conflicting Strategies on EBAY

Today’s tickers: EBAY, RCL, RAI, VLO, VRSN, USU, JAS, NUAN, TIVO & DNR

EBAY – eBay, Inc. – Two different options strategies employed on online auction-house, eBay, Inc., today indicate conflicting medium-term sentiment on the stock. One trader is positioning for a significant rally in the price of the underlying, while another individual anticipates shares will remain range-bound through July expiration. EBAY’s shares increased 3.35% during the current session to stand at $24.58. The uber-bullish stance taken on the stock involved the purchase of 10,000 call options at the July $30 strike for a premium of $0.22 per contract. The investor holding the calls stands ready to amass profits should shares of the underlying stock surge 22.95% from the current price to surpass the effective breakeven point on the calls at $30.22 by expiration in five months time. In contrast, the other options player initiated a sold strangle, which yields maximum benefits only if shares trade within a specified range through expiration. The investor sold 3,500 calls at the July $26 strike for a premium of $1.10 apiece in combination with the sale of the same number of puts at the lower July $21 strike for a premium of $0.58 each. Gross premium enjoyed on the trade amounts to $1.68 per contract. The investor keeps the full amount of premium if shares trade between $21.00 and $26.00 through expiration. However, losses accrue on the position if EBAY’s shares trade above the upper breakeven point at $27.68, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven price of $19.32 by expiration day. If the call-buying optimist ends up accurately predicting EBAY’s future share movements, the strangle seller will lose out big time. But, if shares do remain range-bound, the call-buyer only ever risks losing $0.22 per contract, or the price paid to take ownership of the call contracts.

RCL – Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – The cruise operator received an upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’ with a target share price of $27.00 at Goldman Sachs Group yesterday, and today nearly reached the target price amid a 2.60% rally in the price of the underlying shares to $29.70. Option trading in the June contract today is likely the work of a bullish trader investing in married put options. It appears the investor purchased shares of the underlying stock for about $29.36 apiece in conjunction with the purchase of approximately 39,000 puts at the…
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Iron-Ore Bull Excavates Massive Credit Spread on Vale S.A.

Today’s tickers: VALE, ANF, ARIA, GCI, S, KR, SYY, AZO, TLB & RAI

VALE – Vale S.A. – Option volume on iron-ore producer, Vale, exploded this afternoon after one investor exchanged 102,200 puts in the June 2010 contract. The put activity actually implies bullish sentiment on Vale despite the 3% decline in shares this afternoon to $27.36. It appears the contrarian trader sold 51,100 in-the-money puts at the June 29 strike for a premium of 4.45 each, and purchased 51,100 puts at the lower June 23 strike for 1.75 apiece. The iron-bull receives a net credit of 2.70 per contract on the trade, which he keeps if VALE’s shares rally above $29.00 by expiration in June. Shares closed at $29.40 just last week on December 2, 2009. The investor is exposed to losses to the downside if shares decline through the breakeven price of $26.30. Maximum potential losses of 3.30 per contract accumulate for the trader if the stock sinks 16% from the current price to $23.00 by June’s expiration day.

ANF – Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – A number of large-volume put transactions on fashion retail store operator, Abercrombie & Fitch, indicates investor pessimism on the stock through expiration in January 2010. Abercrombie’s shares slipped 1.5% during afternoon trading to $35.11. Perhaps bearish option traders were dismayed by the firm’s weaker-than-expected November sales report. ANF posted a 17% decline in same-store sales for the month, which was far worse than the 9.3% decline anticipated by analysts. It appears one investor initiated a four-legged combination play aimed at protecting against near-term declines in the value of ANF shares. First the investor established a ratio put spread by purchasing 15,000 puts at the January 35 strike for 2.10 apiece, marked against the sale of 30,000 puts at the lower January 32 strike for 95 cents each. The net cost of the ratio spread amounts to 20 cents per contract. Next, the trader effectively created an uneven butterfly spread by rolling a previously established put position in the January 2010 contract up to a higher strike price. It seems the trader originally purchased 15,000 puts at the January 29 strike for roughly 2.50 apiece on October 2, 2009. Today the individual took a loss on that position by selling the puts for 40 cents apiece to buy the same number of put options at the higher January 31 strike for 80 cents…
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Phil's Favorites

The World's Tech Giants, Ranked by Brand Value

 

The World’s Tech Giants, Ranked by Brand Value

Courtesy of Theras A.G. Wood, Visual Capitalist

 

The World’s Tech Giants, Ranked by Brand Value

The pandemic has businesses everywhere on the ropes, with many firms filing for bankruptcy since lockdowns began. Despite the uncertainty, tech giants and major digital retail brands are still thri...



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Zero Hedge

The Origins Of The Dollar's Value

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Frank Shostak via The Mises Institute,

Why does the dollar bill in one's pocket have value? The value of money is established, according to some experts, because the government in power says so. For some commentators the value of money is on account of social convention. What this implies is that money has value because it is accepted. 

And why is it accepted? ...because it is accepted! Obviously this is not a good explanation of why money has value.

...



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ValueWalk

No coronavirus relief package yet: How to create your own check

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With no decision yet on the next coronavirus stimulus package, many are starting to worry about paying their bills amid the coronavirus pandemic. Instead of waiting for the coronavirus relief package, there are a few ways that can help you create your own check without working extra hours.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Lower dependence on coronavirus relief package

Democrats and Republicans are still far apart on the next coronavirus relief package. With the Senate scheduled to go on a month-long recess starting August 8,...



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Biotech/COVID-19

A second COVID-19 wave? Here are 6 lessons from the first

 

A second COVID-19 wave? Here are 6 lessons from the first

A man wearing a face mask to curb the spread of COVID-19 walks past a temporary Pride art installation in Vancouver on Aug. 3, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

Courtesy of Loren Falkenberg, University of Calgary and Jillian Walsh, University of York

As COVID-19 spread across the globe, governments looked to epidemiologists to slow its transmission.

Without a vaccine, large-scale testing capacity and sufficient critical-care beds, epidemiologists pushed...



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The Technical Traders

Melt-Up Continues While Metals Warn of Risks

Courtesy of Technical Traders

What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week.  Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%).  Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090.  If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.

MELT-UP WITH HIGH RISKS – PAY ATTENTION

Overall, our research team believes the current “melt-up” price action is likely to continue as global investors continue to believe the US Fed will do everything possible to save the...



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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



Date Found: Monday, 30 March 2020, 05:21:45 PM

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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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