The Case for a Fed Rate Hike
by ilene - May 22nd, 2010 4:57 pm
John calls the article "the case for a fed rate hike" but I don’t think he made the case. Maybe someone could enlighten me? – Ilene
The Case for a Fed Rate Hike
Courtesy of John Mauldin, at Thoughts from the Frontline
Employment Is Turning the Corner
The Headwinds of Money Supply
Who Stole the Inflation?
The Fed Is On Hold
An Inverted Yield Curve?
LA, Vancouver, San Francisco, and a First Often Wrong, Seldom in Doubt
Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)
Additionally, we are working on a MAJOR revision of the letter. There will be a lot more ways for you to interact with me and each other. A lot more information and capabilities. We are excited. It should be here by the fall. Tiffani and I think you are really going to like it. And now to the letter.
Employment Is Turning the Corner
There is a little-known employment report that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases late in the month that is a summary of the employment reports from the 50 states. Of late, this number has been higher than the federal government survey. Adding the states together, we find that 412,200 jobs (non-seasonally adjusted) were created in April, higher than the establishment survey (which for whatever reason gets the headlines) and more in line with the household survey, which showed an employment gain of 550,000 (seasonally adjusted).
I think it is well established by now that I am not a fan of the birth/death employment estimates in the establishment survey. That is where the BLS estimates the number of new jobs created by the birth or death of new businesses. It is often a significant portion of the jobs survey and it is a seasonally adjusted guess. There really is no alternative but to make this estimate, but…
Rumours of an Unexpected Fed Discount Rate Hike Dampen Stocks
by ilene - March 18th, 2010 8:55 pm
Rumours of an Unexpected Fed Discount Rate Hike Dampen Stocks
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
Bloomberg reports that rumours of a surprise Fed Discount Rate hike circulated trading desks earlier today, helping to depress stock prices in the land of lotus eaters, almost darkening the colour of the biggest winning streak since August 2009.
The rumour reportedly originated with traders in Chicago. It was so ludicrous that one has to believe that it was indeed started there. You expected something original on the day after St. Patrick’s Day? The Fed just raised the discount rate, symbolically I should add, at a regularly scheduled meeting.
Oh that’s right, it is options expiration and a quad-witch nonetheless. Is the Chicago Board Option Exchange trying to whistle up some action? Are traders struggling to find an easy trade with the forces of the High Frequency Terminators so ably thinning the herds of small specs?
Why is Wall Street like the Planet of the Apes? Because the gorillas have all the weapons, nets, and horses, and ride around all day shooting the human beings.
There are those of us who remember the disrepute and revulsion in which the US markets were held by the public back in the dark days of the 1970′s in the aftermath of the 72-74 bear market. The pit crawlers spent the day throwing paper airplanes at one another, the Dow languished sub-1000, and the brokers talked about the ‘return of the small investor to the markets.’
It took the bull market of the 1980′s and Reagan’s voodoo economics and laws about IRAs and 401K’s to bring the public back in for a wash and rinse by the Street.
Just another day in the Pax Dollarous.