Posts Tagged ‘rate hikes’

The Case for a Fed Rate Hike

John calls the article "the case for a fed rate hike" but I don’t think he made the case. Maybe someone could enlighten me? – Ilene 

The Case for a Fed Rate Hike

Courtesy of John Mauldin, at Thoughts from the Frontline 

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged

Employment Is Turning the Corner 
The Headwinds of Money Supply 
Who Stole the Inflation? 
The Fed Is On Hold 
An Inverted Yield Curve? 
LA, Vancouver, San Francisco, and a First Often Wrong, Seldom in Doubt

Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)

Additionally, we are working on a MAJOR revision of the letter. There will be a lot more ways for you to interact with me and each other. A lot more information and capabilities. We are excited. It should be here by the fall. Tiffani and I think you are really going to like it. And now to the letter.

Employment Is Turning the Corner

Woman circling want ads in newspaper

There is a little-known employment report that the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases late in the month that is a summary of the employment reports from the 50 states. Of late, this number has been higher than the federal government survey. Adding the states together, we find that 412,200 jobs (non-seasonally adjusted) were created in April, higher than the establishment survey (which for whatever reason gets the headlines) and more in line with the household survey, which showed an employment gain of 550,000 (seasonally adjusted).

I think it is well established by now that I am not a fan of the birth/death employment estimates in the establishment survey. That is where the BLS estimates the number of new jobs created by the birth or death of new businesses. It is often a significant portion of the jobs survey and it is a seasonally adjusted guess. There really is no alternative but to make this estimate, but…
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Rumours of an Unexpected Fed Discount Rate Hike Dampen Stocks

Rumours of an Unexpected Fed Discount Rate Hike Dampen Stocks

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Mark Wahlberg at FAO Schwarz Toy Store

Bloomberg reports that rumours of a surprise Fed Discount Rate hike circulated trading desks earlier today, helping to depress stock prices in the land of lotus eaters, almost darkening the colour of the biggest winning streak since August 2009.

The rumour reportedly originated with traders in Chicago. It was so ludicrous that one has to believe that it was indeed started there. You expected something original on the day after St. Patrick’s Day? The Fed just raised the discount rate, symbolically I should add, at a regularly scheduled meeting.

Oh that’s right, it is options expiration and a quad-witch nonetheless. Is the Chicago Board Option Exchange trying to whistle up some action? Are traders struggling to find an easy trade with the forces of the High Frequency Terminators so ably thinning the herds of small specs?

Why is Wall Street like the Planet of the Apes? Because the gorillas have all the weapons, nets, and horses, and ride around all day shooting the human beings.

There are those of us who remember the disrepute and revulsion in which the US markets were held by the public back in the dark days of the 1970′s in the aftermath of the 72-74 bear market. The pit crawlers spent the day throwing paper airplanes at one another, the Dow languished sub-1000, and the brokers talked about the ‘return of the small investor to the markets.’

It took the bull market of the 1980′s and Reagan’s voodoo economics and laws about IRAs and 401K’s to bring the public back in for a wash and rinse by the Street.

Just another day in the Pax Dollarous.
 

 


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Phil's Favorites

How TikTok is upending workplace social media policies - and giving us rebel nurses and dancing cops

 

How TikTok is upending workplace social media policies – and giving us rebel nurses and dancing cops

Front-line workers frequently make short TikTok videos while on the job. Tzido/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Elizabeth C. Tippett, University of Oregon

As the Thanksgiving holiday was winding down, a medical center in Salem, Oregon, found itself in the middle of a frothing social media mess. A nurse named ...



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Politics

As Pandemic Soars to Deadly New Heights, 'Conservative Ideology Itself' Blamed for Disastrous US Response

 

As Pandemic Soars to Deadly New Heights, 'Conservative Ideology Itself' Blamed for Disastrous US Response

"The conservative belief that government is more often the problem than the solution," argue two progressive analysts, "made it practically inevitable that Republicans would render their own government ineffective."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

A supporter of President Donald Trump insults counter-protesters during a rally in Washington, D.C., on November 14, 2020. (Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)

It is widely agreed that President Donald Trump'...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Plunge After Pfizer Cuts Vaccine Rollout Target By Half Due To "Supply Chain Obstacles"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

US stocks tumbled during the final hour of trading Thursday as Pfizer revealed that it expects to ship half the number of vaccines this year, raising new questions about the optimistic projections and expectations for the pace of vaccinations.

The company cited supply chain delays tied to the fact that the company has found raw materials in early production that did not meet its standards.

It still expects over 1bln doses rolled out in 2021

"Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected," a company spokeswoman said. "And it's important to highlight that the outcom...



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ValueWalk

McConnell Continues To Hold Up Covid Pandemic Relief

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

As Another 712K Get Pink Slips, McConnell Insists On More Corporate Giveaways in Lieu of Real Covid Pandemic Relief

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

McConnell Dismisses The Urgently Needed Covid Pandemic Relief

McConnell’s latest proposal offers far too little, too late for those most in need — not a penny for extra unemployment benefits, stimulus checks, or rental assistance, while doing nothing to ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Industrials Test Super Breakout Price Level!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has survived several market scares over the past 5 decades, including the 1987 crash (Black Monday), Tech Bubble, Financial Crisis, and Coronavirus crash.

In a very noisy, news-driven world, sometimes it pays to simply zoom out on the charts and stop thinking about trading every headline.

Today’s chart is a “quarterly” chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (spanning the past 50 years). It includes some relevant Fibonacci price levels for active investors to consider; we apply Fibonacci to the quarterly lows of 1974 and the lows of 2003 and 2009 (that being 100%).

Note that the Dow Industri...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.


Gold Gann Angle Chart ...


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Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



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Gold Channel Chart


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Biotech/COVID-19

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful - but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

 

Rapid COVID-19 tests can be useful – but there are far too few to put a dent in the pandemic

Rapid tests for COVID-19 are easy to administer and give fast results. AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File

Courtesy of Bonnie LaFleur, University of Arizona and Katherine Ellingson, University of Ari...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.