Posts Tagged ‘resistance’

Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

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Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

Daily ETF and Stock Market Outlook from John Nnyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral
Short Term Trend: Neutral

Today major indexes saw yet another failed rally at major resistance in spite of all the euphoria over the weekend’s G20 meeting communiqué that was widely seen as a license for the United States to continue trashing its currency and so support “risk on” assets. 

As everyone knows by now, a declining dollar has meant a rising stock and commodity market, but today the dollar declined and the equities markets were unable to hold onto meaningful gains. 

It increasingly appears that the major factor keeping the market afloat is the anticipated Federal Reserve quantitative easing at its meeting next week with a secondary factor being the notion that the Republicans will reclaim at least the House of Representatives in next week’s election. 

It also increasingly appears that both of these events very likely have already been discounted by the market and that market participants could be “selling on the news,” as so often happens. 

Overall, this looks more like a top than a bottom when you add up declining breadth and participation by individual stocks, overly bullish investor euphoria and a market that appears to be more sustained by government intervention and support than fundamentals and improving sales and earnings. 

The next week will be pivotal on both a technical and fundamental basis.  Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the ‘red flag’ mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Wall Street Sector Selector holds various inverse ETF positions and positions can change at any time.


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Double Divergence and Resistance in SP500

Double Divergence and Resistance in SP500

Courtesy of Corey of Afraid to Trade

Structurally, after the recent rally from the 875 lows, the S&P 500 is challenging possible resistance at the 955 level which comes from both the January and June 2009 highs.  We’re also picking up an internal negative momentum divergence along with a TICK (high) divergence at these levels which should call our attention.  Let’s look at the structure.

S&P 500

Let me begin by saying there’s absolutely no guarantee price will inflect downwards off these levels, but due to these developments, it would seem that risk is to the upside and opportunity might be to the downside.

As price swung upwards off a clean positive momentum divergence into the July 8th lows, we had a new TICK High of 1,400, which was a first sign of strength.  As price swung back to form a higher low – complete with 60min dojis at those lows – we then began the large momentum move up that we see to this day.

However, the momentum may be trailing off as the 3/10 Oscillator is showing divergences (which isn’t as significant as the TICK divergences – oscillators can give false overbought readings on a powerful up-move).

More importantly, the TICK is showing internal divergences with the daily high TICK reading as price has continued higher – both of these serve as non-confirmations of the recent highs.

Now that price has come into prior resistance – which also reflects roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2008 highs to the March 2009 lows – odds have shifted to favor a downside move, or at least a low-risk (stop slightly above the highs), high-reward trade opportunity.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

 


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Bulls Can’t Seem to Break 950 on the SP500

Bulls Can’t Seem to Break 950 on the SP500

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I mentioned earlier in my post “So This is What Resistance Looks Like” where I noted that 950 was becoming increasingly difficult for the bulls to clear – they still haven’t cleared that level.  Let’s step inside the 30 min chart on the S&P 500 to see the recent price action and current structure.

Though we flirted intraday on the open of June 5th, price hasn’t breached the 950 level – in fact, I’m surprised at how tight a level price has coiled in the 950 to 930 zone.

Until we break one way or the other out of this range, the price structure and trading tactics are clear – play long and short within the range once price hits an extreme in the range.

You might even want to avoid swing trading in this environment until we do get a price break, which would be expected to result in a trend (or momentum) move.

The 3/10 Oscillator is becoming useless in a flat momentum environment – so are the 20 and 50 EMAs on this timeframe.

Remember, during flat market conditions (triangles, ranges) oscillators (like the RSI or Stochastic, etc) become of value in highlighting possible overbought/oversold conditions to initiate trades.

Look closer and follow the price – do you really need an oscillator to show you overbought and oversold conditions in a clean consolidation as we’re having now?

So until we break above 950 or beneath 930, continue to watch the structure closely and lower your expectations.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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Phil's Favorites

We should look closely at Britain's decision to elect a man so renowned for his untrustworthiness

 

We should look closely at Britain's decision to elect a man so renowned for his untrustworthiness

Courtesy of Barry Richards, Bournemouth University

In previous British elections, to say that trust was the main issue would have meant simply that trust is the trump card – whichever leader or party could secure most trust would win. Now, the emerging question about trust is whether it even matters anymore.

This is at least partly because Brexit has deepened the crisis of trust. The 2019 election was always going to be about Brexit – and not only because some people would vote according to where they stood on the matter. It was also because the emo...



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Zero Hedge

Trade-Deal Rumorgasm Sparks Stock Meltup To Record Highs, Bond Bloodbath

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It's a deal... again...

Oct 11: NEWS "Trump says the US has come to a substantial phase one deal with China"

Dec 12: RUMOR *TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO A BIG DEAL WITH CHINA

Dec 12: RUMOR *U.S. NEGOTIATORS OFFER TO CANCEL NEW DEC. 15 CHINA TARIFFS: DJ

Dec 12: NEWS/RUMOR "Trump says he and China reached a 'phase one' trade deal in principle"

And that was good enough for new record highs for stocks...



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Insider Scoop

The Daily Biotech Pulse: European Nod For Amgen, miRagen Overhauls Clinical Pipeline, Tonix Snags Patent Win

Courtesy of Benzinga

Here's a roundup of top developments in the biotech space over the last 24 hours.

Scaling The Peaks

(Biotech stocks hitting 52-week highs on Dec. 11)

  • Acceleron Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: XLRN)
  • Aimmune Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: AIMT)
  • Aprea The...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Freeport McMoRan (FCX) Making A Run For the "Gold"?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Mining company Freeport McMoRan NYSE: FCX is enjoying the tailwind from a strong year for gold and silver prices. And although Copper prices are down, Copper has been turning up lately.

This has helped Freeport’s stock price recover in 2019 and has FCX testing a key breakout level.

Below is a “weekly” chart of Freeport McMoRan (FCX). The shaded channel outlined by each (1) highlights the longer-term downtrend that FCX has been stuck in.

But this could change on a dime, especially if FCX can breakout above (2). This area represents its re...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 
Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices. The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).




 

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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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