Posts Tagged ‘resistance’

Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

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Looking More Like a Top Than a Bottom: ETF and Stock Market Outlook

Daily ETF and Stock Market Outlook from John Nnyaradi’s Wall Street Sector Selector 

Instratrader Indicators: 

Red Flag: We Expect Lower Prices Ahead 
Daily Technical Sentiment Indicators: Neutral
Short Term Trend: Neutral

Today major indexes saw yet another failed rally at major resistance in spite of all the euphoria over the weekend’s G20 meeting communiqué that was widely seen as a license for the United States to continue trashing its currency and so support “risk on” assets. 

As everyone knows by now, a declining dollar has meant a rising stock and commodity market, but today the dollar declined and the equities markets were unable to hold onto meaningful gains. 

It increasingly appears that the major factor keeping the market afloat is the anticipated Federal Reserve quantitative easing at its meeting next week with a secondary factor being the notion that the Republicans will reclaim at least the House of Representatives in next week’s election. 

It also increasingly appears that both of these events very likely have already been discounted by the market and that market participants could be “selling on the news,” as so often happens. 

Overall, this looks more like a top than a bottom when you add up declining breadth and participation by individual stocks, overly bullish investor euphoria and a market that appears to be more sustained by government intervention and support than fundamentals and improving sales and earnings. 

The next week will be pivotal on both a technical and fundamental basis.  Wall Street Sector Selector remains in the ‘red flag’ mode, expecting lower prices ahead.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Wall Street Sector Selector holds various inverse ETF positions and positions can change at any time.


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Double Divergence and Resistance in SP500

Double Divergence and Resistance in SP500

Courtesy of Corey of Afraid to Trade

Structurally, after the recent rally from the 875 lows, the S&P 500 is challenging possible resistance at the 955 level which comes from both the January and June 2009 highs.  We’re also picking up an internal negative momentum divergence along with a TICK (high) divergence at these levels which should call our attention.  Let’s look at the structure.

S&P 500

Let me begin by saying there’s absolutely no guarantee price will inflect downwards off these levels, but due to these developments, it would seem that risk is to the upside and opportunity might be to the downside.

As price swung upwards off a clean positive momentum divergence into the July 8th lows, we had a new TICK High of 1,400, which was a first sign of strength.  As price swung back to form a higher low – complete with 60min dojis at those lows – we then began the large momentum move up that we see to this day.

However, the momentum may be trailing off as the 3/10 Oscillator is showing divergences (which isn’t as significant as the TICK divergences – oscillators can give false overbought readings on a powerful up-move).

More importantly, the TICK is showing internal divergences with the daily high TICK reading as price has continued higher – both of these serve as non-confirmations of the recent highs.

Now that price has come into prior resistance – which also reflects roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2008 highs to the March 2009 lows – odds have shifted to favor a downside move, or at least a low-risk (stop slightly above the highs), high-reward trade opportunity.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

 


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Bulls Can’t Seem to Break 950 on the SP500

Bulls Can’t Seem to Break 950 on the SP500

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I mentioned earlier in my post “So This is What Resistance Looks Like” where I noted that 950 was becoming increasingly difficult for the bulls to clear – they still haven’t cleared that level.  Let’s step inside the 30 min chart on the S&P 500 to see the recent price action and current structure.

Though we flirted intraday on the open of June 5th, price hasn’t breached the 950 level – in fact, I’m surprised at how tight a level price has coiled in the 950 to 930 zone.

Until we break one way or the other out of this range, the price structure and trading tactics are clear – play long and short within the range once price hits an extreme in the range.

You might even want to avoid swing trading in this environment until we do get a price break, which would be expected to result in a trend (or momentum) move.

The 3/10 Oscillator is becoming useless in a flat momentum environment – so are the 20 and 50 EMAs on this timeframe.

Remember, during flat market conditions (triangles, ranges) oscillators (like the RSI or Stochastic, etc) become of value in highlighting possible overbought/oversold conditions to initiate trades.

Look closer and follow the price – do you really need an oscillator to show you overbought and oversold conditions in a clean consolidation as we’re having now?

So until we break above 950 or beneath 930, continue to watch the structure closely and lower your expectations.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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Zero Hedge

Visualizing The 150 Apps That Power The Gig Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Go back in time a decade, and you’d have a tough time convincing anyone that they would be “employed” through an app on their phone.

And yet, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, in a short period of time, the emergence of the smartphone has enabled the gig economy to flourish into a multi-trillion dollar global market. And by leveraging apps like Uber, Airbnb, and Etsy, it’s estimated that ...



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Phil's Favorites

What's going on with Blue Apron?

By Ilene 

The Blue Apron business model appears, perhaps, flawed. While the service is convenient, I think it would appeal mostly to very busy people who don't have time to shop for food -- but enjoy cooking -- and have enough money that the trade off between paying for food delivery vs. spending time shopping is worth it. Here's the unfortunate stock chart and some numbers from Yahoo:

The company has been losing money, and is projected to lose money again next year. Revenue is projected to decrease in 2019 from the 2018 level, but pick up again in 2020, though still below 2018's revenue. Maybe a larger company that could integrate APRN's services into its existing infrastructure should acquire APRN and save it from its apparent...



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Chart School

Palladium minor cycle bottom

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again RealVision TV posts another trade idea, long palladium. We shall review it with our RTT cycle tools and parallel channels.







Any trader will be concerned with the supply shock at $1800 which pushed down price quickly. Profit taking maybe, sure! The question, is there more supply out (or more profit taking) there ready to dump on the market, either now or after any minor advance. This why waiting for the 'C' wave of the A-B-C to form over some more time is a good idea, and once done, we want to see solid buying moving price up before acting, after all we do not want to be early or a lonely bull (Richard Wyckoff logic). 

The parallel channel highl...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Sending Bearish Message To Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Quality bull markets prefer to see Banks stronger than the broad markets or at least keeping up with it. Concerns often crop up when banks reflect relative weakness compared to the S&P.

This chart looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past few years, reflecting a falling channel of lower highs and lower lows has taken place inside of falling channel (1). This falling channel has now been in play for the past 15-months.

The index hit the bottom of the channel in December of 2018 and a counter-trend rally took place. The rally off the December lows saw the index hit the top...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst: US Sanctions 'May Not Kill Huawei'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday that limits how "foreign adversaries" conduct business with U.S. companies.

What Happened

The Department of Commerce said China's Huawei and 70 related companies will be included in the "Entity ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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