Posts Tagged ‘Richmond Fed’

Richmond Fed’s Lacker: Housing is a Small Part of the Economy, No Worries There

Richmond Fed’s Lacker: Housing is a Small Part of the Economy, No Worries There

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

Apparently my dearest most favorite Fedhead has the memory capacity of a goldfish and has conveniently forgotten what happened in housing not even two full years ago. But hey, it’s his economic outlook, not mine.

Business Week:

“I don’t expect a dramatic worsening” in housing, Lacker said. “Housing is such a small portion of the economy now it’s a little less capable of doing damage. I think we can withstand some shocks to housing and some fluctuations to housing.”

Sales of bomb shelters, bunkers, freeze-dried food and gold bars did notdecline on this news. 

My question for dear JML is as follows: Does housing become a problem when the federal government is forced to put zombie GSEs on sheet and thereby factor in that hot mess to their overall budget considerations? Take your time, I’ll be here when you’ve got an answer. How about when the Fed is finally forced to jack up interest rates, thereby ending banks’ free money fest, thereby cutting off a large chunk of Treasury buyers, thereby pushing mortgage rates through the roof? Is it a problem then?

Lacker made his comments to reporters at the opening of Richmond Fed’s extravagant new $4 million money museum. No problems to report in central banking, that’s for sure. 

 


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Richmond Fed: "Bubble? What Bubble?"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest out of the Richmond Fed is a joke of a paper that while analyzing the possibility that the entire stock market and dollar carry trade is one zero cost of capital-funded bubble, skips over this possibility and instead goes on to analyze the "factors that could contribute to a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent rally in certain risky asset markets." Spoiler alert: No bubble – it’s all based in sound reality.

In what is likely a first, the Fed quotes Nouriel Roubini:

 The near zero nominal interest rate in the United States, jointly with the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, have created resources available to be lent. Some investors have taken advantage of those resources by borrowing in dollars at very low rates and investing in foreign assets, especially in emerging economies and commodities. The expected profits from this investment strategy have been magnified by the expectation of a weaker dollar: Once it comes time to pay off the dollar-denominated loans, the investors can repay them using dollars that are worth relatively less. In turn, this trading strategy – referred to as “shorting” the dollar – has itself contributed to the decline in the value of the dollar since investors must exchange dollars to purchase foreign-denominated assets.

In explaining what Roubini means to his intellectually subprime colleagues, Richmond Fed analyst Renne Courtois provides this enlightening narrative:

The argument of Roubini and others is that this represents a bubble because the emerging markets and commodities rallies are fueled by easy money and the carry trade, rather than economic fundamentals. Under this view, several likely factors could cause this asset bubble to burst. After appreciating during the height of the financial crisis, the dollar steadily declined for most of 2009 but eventually will likely stabilize at some point. Stabilization of the dollar would reduce returns for investors with short dollar positions. Additionally, economic recovery in the United States will raise expectations of an interest rate increase. This would cause the dollar to appreciate (since higher interest rates raise the expected return of dollar-denominated assets, all else equal), and thus cause significant losses for investors short on the dollar.

The Richmond Fed goes as far as refuting Bernanke’s recent claim that low interest rates have never, NEVER, been responsible for this arcane concept known…
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Zero Hedge

"Apple Has Become What It Once Railed Against": Fortnite Maker Epic Games Sues Over App Store Ban

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a lawsuit that is taking the tech industry by surprise, especially considering the rumors, widely discounted, that Apple might buy TikTok, it appears Epic Games, the creator of "Fortnite", has just filed a lawsuit against Apple, accusing it of "unfair and anti-competitive actions....undertaken....to maintain its monopoly in two distinct, multibillion dollar markets: (i) the iOS App Distribution Market, and (ii) the iOS In-App Payment Processing Market (each as defined below)."

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Phil's Favorites

Trump's attempts to ban TikTok and other Chinese tech undermine global democracy

 

Trump's attempts to ban TikTok and other Chinese tech undermine global democracy

Banning TikTok in the United States poses a threat to global democracy. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Philip Mai, Ryerson University

The Trump administration aims to purge Chinese tech companies from the United States, and that has consequences for all of us.

U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration recently issued three new national security measures: an expansion of the State Department’s Clean Network initiative and two executive orders. The Clean Network initiative forbids the use of Chinese tech in the U.S. telecom ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Up to 204,691 extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year

 

Up to 204,691 extra deaths in the US so far in this pandemic year

The pandemic leaves its mark in the number of lives ended. Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images

Courtesy of Ronald D. Fricker Jr., Virginia Tech

The Conversation, ...



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ValueWalk

Peter Schiff Expands Offering to Include Gold Chains in Hopes That Gen Z Will Buy Them

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With precious metals making a massive resurgence in the past month, namely gold, Peter Schiff hopes to capitalize on the ostentatious nature of Gen Z, with their endearment for overpriced clothes and name brands. Schiff Gold is reported to start offering 18k cuban links, bracelets, and other various wearable accouterments.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

“These kids need to understand that while they can personally invest in themselves by being dripp...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

History Says Gold Correction Could Lead to Big Rally!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Over a decade ago, Gold rallied past its 1980 highs and over $1000/oz at (1) on today’s chart.

That rise to new highs was met with a 30 percent correction at (2), followed by a blast off rally to new highs.

Is gold setting up for a repeat of its past?

Gold recently rallied past its 2011 highs and above $2000/oz. Could Gold soon turn lower for a sharp correction before another blast off toward $3000?

If so, Gold bulls should look for a pullback, before blasting higher. Stay tuned!

This article was first written fo...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Chart School

Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
- Moving higher to upper solid red line channel


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XAU
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.



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SILVER
- Ready to pause, or simply explode.


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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision, says Bitcoin may soon become his only asset for long-term investments.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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