Posts Tagged ‘Richmond Fed’

Richmond Fed’s Lacker: Housing is a Small Part of the Economy, No Worries There

Richmond Fed’s Lacker: Housing is a Small Part of the Economy, No Worries There

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

Apparently my dearest most favorite Fedhead has the memory capacity of a goldfish and has conveniently forgotten what happened in housing not even two full years ago. But hey, it’s his economic outlook, not mine.

Business Week:

“I don’t expect a dramatic worsening” in housing, Lacker said. “Housing is such a small portion of the economy now it’s a little less capable of doing damage. I think we can withstand some shocks to housing and some fluctuations to housing.”

Sales of bomb shelters, bunkers, freeze-dried food and gold bars did notdecline on this news. 

My question for dear JML is as follows: Does housing become a problem when the federal government is forced to put zombie GSEs on sheet and thereby factor in that hot mess to their overall budget considerations? Take your time, I’ll be here when you’ve got an answer. How about when the Fed is finally forced to jack up interest rates, thereby ending banks’ free money fest, thereby cutting off a large chunk of Treasury buyers, thereby pushing mortgage rates through the roof? Is it a problem then?

Lacker made his comments to reporters at the opening of Richmond Fed’s extravagant new $4 million money museum. No problems to report in central banking, that’s for sure. 

 


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Richmond Fed: "Bubble? What Bubble?"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest out of the Richmond Fed is a joke of a paper that while analyzing the possibility that the entire stock market and dollar carry trade is one zero cost of capital-funded bubble, skips over this possibility and instead goes on to analyze the "factors that could contribute to a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent rally in certain risky asset markets." Spoiler alert: No bubble – it’s all based in sound reality.

In what is likely a first, the Fed quotes Nouriel Roubini:

 The near zero nominal interest rate in the United States, jointly with the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, have created resources available to be lent. Some investors have taken advantage of those resources by borrowing in dollars at very low rates and investing in foreign assets, especially in emerging economies and commodities. The expected profits from this investment strategy have been magnified by the expectation of a weaker dollar: Once it comes time to pay off the dollar-denominated loans, the investors can repay them using dollars that are worth relatively less. In turn, this trading strategy – referred to as “shorting” the dollar – has itself contributed to the decline in the value of the dollar since investors must exchange dollars to purchase foreign-denominated assets.

In explaining what Roubini means to his intellectually subprime colleagues, Richmond Fed analyst Renne Courtois provides this enlightening narrative:

The argument of Roubini and others is that this represents a bubble because the emerging markets and commodities rallies are fueled by easy money and the carry trade, rather than economic fundamentals. Under this view, several likely factors could cause this asset bubble to burst. After appreciating during the height of the financial crisis, the dollar steadily declined for most of 2009 but eventually will likely stabilize at some point. Stabilization of the dollar would reduce returns for investors with short dollar positions. Additionally, economic recovery in the United States will raise expectations of an interest rate increase. This would cause the dollar to appreciate (since higher interest rates raise the expected return of dollar-denominated assets, all else equal), and thus cause significant losses for investors short on the dollar.

The Richmond Fed goes as far as refuting Bernanke’s recent claim that low interest rates have never, NEVER, been responsible for this arcane concept known…
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Zero Hedge

New York Lawmaker Wants To Ban Bulletproof Vests 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a world of surging violent crime, economic downturn, and a raging virus pandemic, one New York lawmaker has introduced a bill to outlaw body armor in the state, according to The Washington Free Beacon

If the bill is passed, anyone who owns body armor would have to surrender their vests within 15 days of the law being passed or face severe consequences. 

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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ValueWalk

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal Met Expectations

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on Biden’s COVID relief proposal meeting expectations and today’s trading, Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Biden's $1.9 Trillion COVID Relief Proposal

The major indices are all trading lower at midday as the combination of a batch of weak economic numbers, mixed earnings, and negative COVID headlines triggered a pullback in the leading sectors of the market. Pfizer (PFE, -0.7%) admitted that it will temporarily delay its vaccine shipments to Eu...



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Phil's Favorites

The Stock Market Is Broken as a Bellwether; Here's How to Fix It

Courtesy of Pam Martens

By Pam Martens: January 15, 2021 ~

I sat behind a trading terminal at two Wall Street firms from 1986 to 2006. I can assure you that if the President of the United States was refusing to accept the outcome of a presidential election and urging a coup d’é·tat by his civilian militia, the stock market would have sold off by double digits. This era’s stock market has yawned at the spectacle.

I can further assure you that if an actual, violent coup d’état did occur inside the ...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Politics

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

 

The Confederate battle flag, which rioters flew inside the US Capitol, has long been a symbol of white insurrection

A historic first: the Confederate battle flag inside the U.S. Capitol. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jordan Brasher, Columbus State University

Confederate soldiers never reached the Capitol during the Civil War. But the Confederate battle flag was flown by rioters in the U.S. Capitol building for the first time ever on Jan. 6.

The flag’s prominence in the Capitol riot comes a...



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Chart School

Best Wyckoff Accumulation for 2020

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Yes folks there has to be a winner. Price and volume in the right place. Very nice eye candy!


Introduction ...

Ethereum was posted on RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog for monitory and trade entry. To watch the RTT Wyckoff Campaign blog is part of the RTT Plus service. After all you only need one to two great accumulations in a year and returns will be fantastic.






Charts in the video ...


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PnF ...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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