Posts Tagged ‘RKH’

F’ing Dip Thursdsay – Do We Buy It?

Caution - Dips Ahead SignJust buy the f’ing dip.

That’s the great advice we had back on December 2nd, as it was pointed out by Captain Broccoli that we should just ignore all the so-called "facts" of the economy and "just borrow money at this ridiculous low interest rate and just buy the f’ing dip."  "It’s not a pyramid scheme, you  idiot," says the Captain – "It’s a dip buying scheme!"  So far, on every little dip we have had since December 2nd – the Captain has had the winning strategy – do we dare ignore his sage advice today?  

Yesterday we had the biggest pullback since November 23rd with the Russell and the SOX, two of our most over-extended indexes, falling 2.5% in a single day.  The Russell essentially gave up an entire month’s worth of gains in a single day because, as I have warned you over and over and over until I myself was bored hearing it, it has been a low-volume rally and the pure physics of the situation means that, when people finally want to sell stocks, there aren’t enough buyers in the world to support the prices they have run up to.  

The Shanghai, which we’ve been watching closely, dropped another 3% today to 4-month lows this morning.  We did the chart of the Shanghai vs the Hang Seng on Friday, when I was droning on about how weak the real Global economy is and how dangerous inflation was looking and how the government was papering it all over, etc.  Even so, I reminded Members in Chat that none of that reality mattered and we still had to buy the dips until it stopped working.  Is today the day or have we finally reached the end of the gravy train?  

We did some hedged buying on Friday with new long-term bullish trade ideas on AAPL, AET, BAC, GENZ and INTC (2) as well as shorter-term bullish trade ideas on CSTR (April) and ABX (quick 50% profit and done).  We also had a short play on PCX (up huge already) and hedged with RKH Feb $85 puts at $1.15 (now $1.80, up 56%) and rolled our losing QID position in the $10,000 Virtual Portfolio to the Feb $10 calls at an average of $1.15 (now .90, down 22%).  This is how we can be long-term bullish and short-term bearish.  Buying the f’ing
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Stock Market Crash – Year One Review III – March Madness!

We left off in Part II with our Feb 23rd Big Chart Review.

Even though I said: "Once again we are in a market that environment that reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer jumps over a gorge, crashes, is taken up by a helicopter (Ben) smashing against the wall along the way only to fall all the way from the top again.  Pain, pain and more pain every time we try to get long" – we still weren't fully prepared for the devastation that was to follow as the Dow fell from 7,500 to 6,500 in the next 10 days.  My commentary on the environment the next day was: 

According to Cap, someone on the YHOO message board was counting the number of times CNBC talking heads said "nationalization" this morning and, as of 8:15, they were up to 300 times.  Sadly, this is the fear-mongering that is driving the markets to new lows while Cramer continues to keep his sheeple out of protective ETFs like SKF.  So you have the man’s network telling you financials are going to zero while dog and pony boy tells his minions to sell ALL the financials, causing them to go to zero - even though they could hold on and protect themselves with conta-funds, if Cramer didn’t spend 3 days a week convincing his viewers contra-funds are poison.  I’ve never seen anything like this outside of a racketerring investigation.  Speaking of racketeering - Dennis Kucinich nailed it when he pinned that charge on Paulson and company back in November.

Our wall of worry continues to be a steep one.  After yesterday’s failure we do not expect too much out of today, we’ll be happy to just see a bottom at this point but it’s looking a little more likely that we’re heading into a capitulation event that can take us down to frightening levels.  The 60% line is a line the markets dare not cross but, as I pointed out yesterday, we already lost the SOX and the Nikkei, with the Hang Seng and the BSE hanging on by a thread.  Let’s take these levels very seriously, if the administration can’t turn it around this week – the downward momentum can easily pick up steam.

I'll spare you the details other than to say we DIDN'T turn it around that week and the downward momentum
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Will We Break Out Wednesday? No.

So close but yet so far!

As you can see from David Fry's chart of the QQQQ's, the Nasdaq is looking to boldly go where no index has gone since last October, back through the September highs!  If you look at the chart pattern, we have a nice "W" bottom already in and a breakout here at 40 on the Qs could mean we're heading back to where the drop began – way up at 47.5.  That's a neat 20% gain from here and that would give us Dow 11,160, S&P 1,200, Nas 2,400, NYSE 7,800 and Russell 700.  

What?  Do you think that sounds like a bit much?  Well, if you question the resulting trend of a breakout then perhaps you should get ahead of the curve and question the breakout in the first place…    

Does it strike you as strange that a breakout here and a move up to the top of that "W" would put stocks back to where they were valued last June, when the average company earned twice as much on 35% more revenues?  Do you really consider MRO a value because they beat expectations of .53 by earning .58, "just" 39% below last Q2.  MGM is down 21%, TAP down 54%, RRI down 61%, APC down 37%, CTX down 49%, FST – 64%, LF -27%, PHM – 57%, VMC -29%, ADM – 24%….  Well you can look them up yourself here and I'm not saying there aren't winners in this market, but they are few and far between yet the rally is indiscriminate – as if the whole market is spectacularly undervalued. 

While I have long been in the camp of those saying "The economy is not that bad," I do have to, at this juncture, point out that the economy is not THAT good either.  Keep this in mind when you are buying stocks.  How far away are we from your company earning what it earned last year?  What is your expected growth rate.  Keep in mind that last June, your company had positive guidance and was projecting revenues and earnings 10-20% higher than that by 2010 and all we are saying here is how long will it take your company to get back to what it was earning in 2008?  If you say 2 years – then look at the price of your stock in 2006 – THAT is
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Zero Hedge

JPMorgan: Please Buy This Dip

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After JPMorgan clocked in its most profitable year in history in 2019 largely on the back of the Fed's QE4 which - as we remind readers again - was triggered by JPMorgan itself, which sparked a repo market crisis after yanking money market and repo liquidity forcing the Fed to first launch repos and then T-Bill purchases, the bank is not only convinced that the good times will continue to roll after the most powerful market meltup in history in the past 4 months, but that the current melt down on the back of fears over a global viral pandemic, is overdone and will end soon, presenting its clients with another delightful opportunity to BTFD. ...



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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: Short Squeeze

 

Animal Spirits: Short Squeeze

Courtesy of 

(This article was originally posted on 1-22-20.)

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts. Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only)

Listen here:

On today’s show we discuss:



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Insider Scoop

10 Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Moving In Monday's Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Antares Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATRS) stock surged 3.4% to $4.12 during Monday's regular session.

Losers

NeuroMetrix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NURO) stock decreased by 29.0% to $3.37 during Monday's regular session.

Akers Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKER) stock declined 7.8% to $2.95.

Staar Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:STAA) shares declined 4....



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Chart School

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns..

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

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Some charts from the video


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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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