Posts Tagged ‘RKH’

F’ing Dip Thursdsay – Do We Buy It?

Caution - Dips Ahead SignJust buy the f’ing dip.

That’s the great advice we had back on December 2nd, as it was pointed out by Captain Broccoli that we should just ignore all the so-called "facts" of the economy and "just borrow money at this ridiculous low interest rate and just buy the f’ing dip."  "It’s not a pyramid scheme, you  idiot," says the Captain – "It’s a dip buying scheme!"  So far, on every little dip we have had since December 2nd – the Captain has had the winning strategy – do we dare ignore his sage advice today?  

Yesterday we had the biggest pullback since November 23rd with the Russell and the SOX, two of our most over-extended indexes, falling 2.5% in a single day.  The Russell essentially gave up an entire month’s worth of gains in a single day because, as I have warned you over and over and over until I myself was bored hearing it, it has been a low-volume rally and the pure physics of the situation means that, when people finally want to sell stocks, there aren’t enough buyers in the world to support the prices they have run up to.  

The Shanghai, which we’ve been watching closely, dropped another 3% today to 4-month lows this morning.  We did the chart of the Shanghai vs the Hang Seng on Friday, when I was droning on about how weak the real Global economy is and how dangerous inflation was looking and how the government was papering it all over, etc.  Even so, I reminded Members in Chat that none of that reality mattered and we still had to buy the dips until it stopped working.  Is today the day or have we finally reached the end of the gravy train?  

We did some hedged buying on Friday with new long-term bullish trade ideas on AAPL, AET, BAC, GENZ and INTC (2) as well as shorter-term bullish trade ideas on CSTR (April) and ABX (quick 50% profit and done).  We also had a short play on PCX (up huge already) and hedged with RKH Feb $85 puts at $1.15 (now $1.80, up 56%) and rolled our losing QID position in the $10,000 Virtual Portfolio to the Feb $10 calls at an average of $1.15 (now .90, down 22%).  This is how we can be long-term bullish and short-term bearish.  Buying the f’ing
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Stock Market Crash – Year One Review III – March Madness!

We left off in Part II with our Feb 23rd Big Chart Review.

Even though I said: "Once again we are in a market that environment that reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer jumps over a gorge, crashes, is taken up by a helicopter (Ben) smashing against the wall along the way only to fall all the way from the top again.  Pain, pain and more pain every time we try to get long" – we still weren't fully prepared for the devastation that was to follow as the Dow fell from 7,500 to 6,500 in the next 10 days.  My commentary on the environment the next day was: 

According to Cap, someone on the YHOO message board was counting the number of times CNBC talking heads said "nationalization" this morning and, as of 8:15, they were up to 300 times.  Sadly, this is the fear-mongering that is driving the markets to new lows while Cramer continues to keep his sheeple out of protective ETFs like SKF.  So you have the man’s network telling you financials are going to zero while dog and pony boy tells his minions to sell ALL the financials, causing them to go to zero - even though they could hold on and protect themselves with conta-funds, if Cramer didn’t spend 3 days a week convincing his viewers contra-funds are poison.  I’ve never seen anything like this outside of a racketerring investigation.  Speaking of racketeering - Dennis Kucinich nailed it when he pinned that charge on Paulson and company back in November.

Our wall of worry continues to be a steep one.  After yesterday’s failure we do not expect too much out of today, we’ll be happy to just see a bottom at this point but it’s looking a little more likely that we’re heading into a capitulation event that can take us down to frightening levels.  The 60% line is a line the markets dare not cross but, as I pointed out yesterday, we already lost the SOX and the Nikkei, with the Hang Seng and the BSE hanging on by a thread.  Let’s take these levels very seriously, if the administration can’t turn it around this week – the downward momentum can easily pick up steam.

I'll spare you the details other than to say we DIDN'T turn it around that week and the downward momentum
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Will We Break Out Wednesday? No.

So close but yet so far!

As you can see from David Fry's chart of the QQQQ's, the Nasdaq is looking to boldly go where no index has gone since last October, back through the September highs!  If you look at the chart pattern, we have a nice "W" bottom already in and a breakout here at 40 on the Qs could mean we're heading back to where the drop began – way up at 47.5.  That's a neat 20% gain from here and that would give us Dow 11,160, S&P 1,200, Nas 2,400, NYSE 7,800 and Russell 700.  

What?  Do you think that sounds like a bit much?  Well, if you question the resulting trend of a breakout then perhaps you should get ahead of the curve and question the breakout in the first place…    

Does it strike you as strange that a breakout here and a move up to the top of that "W" would put stocks back to where they were valued last June, when the average company earned twice as much on 35% more revenues?  Do you really consider MRO a value because they beat expectations of .53 by earning .58, "just" 39% below last Q2.  MGM is down 21%, TAP down 54%, RRI down 61%, APC down 37%, CTX down 49%, FST – 64%, LF -27%, PHM – 57%, VMC -29%, ADM – 24%….  Well you can look them up yourself here and I'm not saying there aren't winners in this market, but they are few and far between yet the rally is indiscriminate – as if the whole market is spectacularly undervalued. 

While I have long been in the camp of those saying "The economy is not that bad," I do have to, at this juncture, point out that the economy is not THAT good either.  Keep this in mind when you are buying stocks.  How far away are we from your company earning what it earned last year?  What is your expected growth rate.  Keep in mind that last June, your company had positive guidance and was projecting revenues and earnings 10-20% higher than that by 2010 and all we are saying here is how long will it take your company to get back to what it was earning in 2008?  If you say 2 years – then look at the price of your stock in 2006 – THAT is
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Zero Hedge

Watch: SpaceX's Starship Prototype Dramatically Explodes On Launch Platform

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The first beta test of Elon Musk's "Starship" Mark 1 prototype didn't quite go exactly as planned unless, of course, the plan was for it to explode on the launch pad. The prototype, which was built as a "pathfinder for SpaceX's planned human-rated Starship rocket" literally saw its top explode during a pressurization test on Wednesday, according to CBS and - well, video that shows exactly that. 

Th...



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Phil's Favorites

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed - here's what will affect successes in future

 

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed – here's what will affect successes in future

Gaining currency? Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

Many cryptocurrencies have been launched in the past few yea...



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Digital Currencies

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed - here's what will affect successes in future

 

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed – here's what will affect successes in future

Gaining currency? Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

Many cryptocurrencies have been launched in the past few yea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds About To Send Stocks A Bearish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are junk bonds about to send stocks an important message? It looks like it from this chart!

Junk Bond ETF (JNK) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past couple of years, inside of falling channel (1). When it broke support in early 2018 at (2), stocks struggled to make much upward progress for the next few months.

The rally off support last year saw JNK hit falling resistance a few months ago and some softness has set in. The small decline of late has it testing a series of higher lows at (3).

What JNK does at (3), looks to sen...



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Insider Scoop

PayPal Will Buy Honey Science For $4B

Courtesy of Benzinga

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is acquiring Honey Science Corp for $4 billion.

Honey Science Corp was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Los Angeles. Honey helps people automatically find online coupons and discounts while ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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