Posts Tagged ‘Rob Hanna’

Revisiting Short-term Performance After FTD’s

Revisting Short-term Performance After FTD’s

Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges 

With the markets rising more than 1% on higher volume exactly 4 days after a potential bottom, Thursday can be labeled a Follow Through Day (FTD). As I mentioned last night I did an extensive study of FTD’s on the blog back in 2008. A summary page with links may be found here:

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/07/follow-through-days-quantified.html

Among the links found on that page, traders might be especially interested in the study of short-term implications from Feb 1, 2008. In that post I point out that while intermediate-term traders often view the FTD with bullish optimism, swing traders may see it as a short setup since the market is now “overbought in a downtrend”. We’ve seen many, many times before that overbought doesn’t necessarily mean a downside edge and oversold doesn’t’ necessarily mean an upside edge. This is why two lines are incorporated in the Aggregator and why confirmation is needed with both lines before a position is taken. So below I’ve updated the stats showing SPX performance in the days following a FTD.

Results are solidly, though not overwhelmingly, bullish. In any case the edge appears to be to the upside and it is certainly an environment that you typically want to be cautious if trying to short.

 


Tags: , , ,




Thoughts On Recent Gap Activity

This is an interesting analysis by Rob Hanna who has studied and quantified the gap activity Phil mentioned in his double week review.  He came to a similar conclusion – very odd market behavior.  – Ilene  

Thoughts On Recent Gap Activity

Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges

A trader I know pointed out the unusually large gap activity lately. I track the 10-day absolute average gap over the 100-day absolute average gap on the charts page in the members section of the site. Meanwhile I observed the average true range is still below normal. I’ve copied the two charts from the website to illustrate.

 

The real odd behavior here is with the average gap size. Such gappy behavior is unusual with the market near new highs. It’s also unusual when there isn’t also a substantial increase in the intraday range. I looked at this a number of different ways last night. The 10/100 Absolute Avg Gap is 1.38 (meaning the 10ma is 38% larger than the 100ma of the overnight gap size). I looked at other instances where similar levels were approached and the market was near a new high. It’s been fairly unusual over the last 15 years and results were inconclusive.

I then look at comparing the size of the average gap to the size of the average intraday range (not the true range as shown above). Here again I found we are at very high levels but past history was choppy and inconclusive.

Lastly I looked at times where the 10-day average gap was well above normal and the 10-day average intraday range was well below normal. Again I could find nothing suggesting a significant directional edge.

So is this activity suggestive of anything? Perhaps. While the readings themselves don’t seem to help greatly in predicting direction, they do indicate some unusual behavior. My take is that the market is being influenced more by outside forces than is customary. It’s been noted by many that the dollar has been leading everything by the nose lately. Outside influences like Dubai debt have also had an overnight influence lately. This would seem to explain why such a large percentage of action is occurring overnight.

So what should we do about it as traders? Two things come to mind – 1) Be more cognizant


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




The 2009 Rally – Breadth Without Compare

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trial subscription to our PSW Report!

Rob Hanna follows up on his previous article, "Never Have So Many Stocks Been So Stretched Above …," showing that the number of stocks trading at prices two standard deviations above their 200ma was at an all time high. – Ilene

The 2009 Rally – Breadth Without Compare

Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges

Yesterday I looked at Worden Bros. T21111, which measures the number of stocks trading at least 2 standard deviations above their 200ma. As you’ll recall, it was hitting an all-time high. (Data goes back to 1986.)

With Wednesday’s big rally, we are now seeing even more extraordinary numbers. Not only is T2111 up to 58.51%, but T2112, which measures the % of stocks trade at least 2 standard deviation above their 40-DAY moving average, is also in record territory. It is showing that a remarkable 57.19% of stocks are now stretched far above their 40-ma’s.

The action in T2112 truly exemplifies the uniqueness of the rally since March. Below is a long-term look at the indicator. Note that from 1986 through 2008 the highest reading this indicator ever registered was 37.22% in November of 2004. That record has been blown away repeatedly over the last 6 months.


 

Let’s now zoom in on this year to better see what I’m saying.

There simply is no comparison over the last 23 years to what we are seeing in this recent rally. There have now 5 distinct periods in the last 6 months where T2112 has rallied through the old high. And now we’re seeing the most extreme breadth numbers of all.

 


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

The guts of an Apple iPhone show exactly what Trump gets wrong about trade

 

The guts of an Apple iPhone show exactly what Trump gets wrong about trade

The components of an iPhone add up to a different cost than the phone itself. Poravute Siriphiroon/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jason Dedrick, Syracuse University; Greg Linden, University of California, Berkeley, and Kenneth L. Kraemer...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Jump; Stocks Dump On Powell-Pullback, Trade-Talk

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A stunned equity market could not believe that Batman Powell and Doveboy Bullard dared to talk down the odds of a 50bps rate-cut in July...

Ugly day in China overnight after Monday's snoozefest...

Mixed bag in Europe with a weak open but France and Spain rallying into the close (still red on week)...

Ugly ...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

 

Beyond Meat vs Impossible Burger: Comparing The Vegan Meat Burgers

Courtesy of Vikas Shukla, ValueWalk

Pexels / Pixabay

The trend of vegan food has been gathering momentum in the last few years as people become more health conscious. They have also begun to realize the environmental impact of raising meat for human consumption. According to PETA, it takes an estimated 1...



more from ValueWalk

Insider Scoop

Wedbush Steps To The Shopify Sidelines

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) ha introduced multiple new initiatives to spur growth, but the stock's valuation is already full at current levels, according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Wedbush's Ygal Arounian downgraded Shopify from Outperform to Neutral with a 12-month price target lifted from $270 to $305.

The Thesis

Shopif...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

Wilshire 5000 Creating A Triple Top? An Important Breakout Test Is In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The stock market has been on fire of late, rallying up to the edge of price resistance on several indexes. Today, we look at one of those stock market indexes: the Wilshire 5000.

The Wilshire 5000 tracks all of the stocks in the US market, so it is a broad-based index that carries significant importance when gauging the health of the overall US stock market.

Looking at the long-term “weekly” chart above, it is pretty clear that the index is at an important price juncture.

The Wilshire 5000 spent the last 25 years trading within a rising price channel (1)...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT). 

To see when water company's (and such like) are nearing the crazy FANG like valuations a review of the Dow Jones Utility Index channel shows us how history can repeat. The c...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>