Posts Tagged ‘RSX’

Big Print In Russia ETF Puts

US markets might be reveling in a stronger growth story Thursdaybut that hasn’t stopped emerging market bears from positioning in the options market.

Shares in the Market Vectors Russia ETF (Ticker: RSX) are higher by less than 1.0% on Thursday, rebounding somewhat after yesterday’s dropping to a six-month low of $25.16.  The price of the underlying, currently up 0.65% on the session at $25.41 as of 11:30 a.m. EST, has lost more than 7.0% of its value since this time last week and more than 15% since this time last year.

A large trade in RSX put options this morning suggests one big options market participant may be bracing for shares in the ETF to extend losses during the next couple of months. The single-largest trade in RSX options this morning was the purchase of a block of 22,000 of the Mar $23 strike puts at a premium of $0.30 each.

Those March expiration puts had not traded until today; open interest was zero contracts heading into Thursday’s session. The IB Probability Lab illustrates the cumulative probability of just above a one-in-eight likelihood of the shares plunging below the strike price within the next six weeks — illustrating the cumulative probability of a below-$23.00 settlement price by March to be 15.05%. 

Chart – IB Probability Lab shows likelihood of RSX trading below $23.00 by March expiration

The puts start making money if shares in the ETF decline another 10.5% from the current price to trade below the effective breakeven point on the downside at $22.70 by March expiration. Shares in the ETF last traded below $22.70 back in August of 2009.


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Wednesday – Stimulus Rumors Trump the APPLocalypse – For Now

AAPL missed!

Fortunately, we were well-prepared for this eventuality as I had said way back on July 10th, in Member Chat, that AAPL was "too big to succeed" (commentary also featured in Stock World Weekly on the 15th).  I also said, at the time regarding AAPL: "Where was my buy point – $555? That's a long way down to support if they fail $600."  We had called for taking the bullish AAPL money and running the previous Thursday (July 5th) in my morning Alert to Members, as they topped out that morning at about $610.  We were a bit early with that call (AAPL hit $619.87 the next week) but, on the whole, our bearish flip on AAPL (and the broader market) has served us well.  

In yesterday's Member Chat, we had one bearish earnings spread on AAPL as well as an aggressive play on SQQQ, the Nasdaq ultra-short, because we expected the Nasdaq to fail along with AAPL (and AMZN is next!) on their earnings.  Our SQQQ trade grabbed the Sept $50/60 bull call spread, offset by short puts on some stocks we are accumulating for our Income Portfolio for a net free trade but our dreams of a big pay-off on the spread will be put on hold today as a sudden burst of stimulus talk has turned the indexes back up, with the Dow now 200 points off the bottom in the Futures (7:50) at 12,660.  

SPY 5 MINUTEI already sent out an Alert to our Members this morning, pointing out what manipulated BS this was as the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath issued what amounted to nothing more than some well-timed speculation on imminent Fed action into yesterday's close that has been picked up by the MSM as a fact and popped the Dow a full 100 points into yesterday's close – erasing 1/2 of a disastrous day in minutes (see Dave Fry's SPY chart).  At the moment (7:54), the Dow Futures (/YM) make an excellent short below the 12,650 line so excuse me while I hit "publish" on this partial post so our Members can see it.

Anyway, so where was I?  Oh yes, market manipulation by Uncle Rupert and the WSJ is not unexpected with NWS reorganizing and looking for good valuations on the company split.  I pointed out to Members seven other articles in which
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Weekend Wipe-Out, the Second Wave!

Another week another 100 points lower

Yep, that's all it was, we lost all of 100 points more than last week, when we fell from 10,725 to 10,172 (553 points) and this week we dropped from Friday's Dow close of 10,172 all the way down to 10,067 yet you would think the world had come to an end to hear the media and the traders freaking out.  I'm not going to try to explain it, I can't.  Maybe it's because going into last week we were very bearish but, starting on the 22nd, we let ourselves finally get a little more bullish AND THE MARKET BETRAYED US!

How could the market not zoom right back up?  It always zooms right back up, doesn't it?  As I said a week ago Friday: "Boy, when sentiment shifts – it REALLY shifts!"  My closing comment on Friday the 22nd was "Back to cash but leaving disaster hedges, which are looking great now as this is shaping up to be some disaster" and our weekend "Global Chart Review" showed us to be at some very key inflection points, letting us go well prepared into this week: 

Manic Monday Market Movement

My Jets lost on Sunday so I was not in the best of moods on Monday.  My outlook that morning was: "We still have our disaster hedges in case things get worse but, on the whole, we’re expecting a 1% bounce in the very least off our 5% lines (anything less will be a bad sign)."  We were pretty much at the 5% rule on Friday's close so we focused on the bounce we wanted to achieve in order to get more bullish. 

I noted that the levels we were looking for were not exactly 1% retraces (see post for reasons) and our target retraces were:  Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625.  What were the highs for the week on those indexes?  Dow 10,310 (+10), S&P 1,103 (-2), Nasdaq 2,227 (+2), NYSE 7,098 (-2) and Russell 621 (-4).  So that's a net of +4 points out of  21,355 points worth of predictions on the retrace, accuracy to within .019% - not a bad showing for our patented 5% rule.     

Please, under NO circumstances subscribe to our daily newsletter, where you would have this kind of information every morning and…
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Global Chart Reveiw Shows Key Inflection Point

Chart Review by Michael Clark

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes

SO, IS THIS FINALLY THE 'REAL' CORRECTION?

What a week it was.  The Bears gave the Bulls some payback.  Obama got a wake-up call.  And the banks got a well-deserved scare (and we hope they will get a well-deserved hair cut).

The markets reacted, as one might expect, with selling.  Actually, the selling began before the Massachusetts election and before Obama sent a shot across the Goldman Sach's bow.  Last week Intel announced surprisingly strong earnings; and the stock started up and then sank.  For the past half-year investor behavior had been the reverse: a buying spree for any stock that did not lose as much as it might have — beating 'Street expectations' that had been dumbed down over and over again during a quarter so that the company could report 'surprising' strength.  Suddenly, now, even good earnings are being greeted with selling.  Then came Massachusetts — wasn't that a Bee Gees' song?
 

All the lights went out in Massachusetts

Anyway, readers want to know where the markets stand today, after the sell-off this week.  My view of it — my 'view', not my gut-feeling — is that we are, so far, merely correcting from an over-extended rally.  This rally has been bizarre, to say the least.  This has been a 'fear rally' — usually the 'fear' side of the equation is when selling comes in, 'greed' driving the expansion.  But fear of systemic failure has driven this rally; and Ben Bernannke has been the captain sailing the 'Boat of Fear',   Ben's logic — that more debt will solve the insolvency crisis — has a shadow side, the logic that a collapse in stock prices will result in systemic failure, international chaos, revolution, repression…made him believe that preservation of the status quo was requiired, at any price.  A 'make-believe' recovery could be jump-started, perhaps, if the Fed could just stimulate (and simulate) another asset-bubble.  After all – that is how his mentor and predecessor, Alan Greenspan, had become the darling of the coctail party crowd, leading member of Time Magazine's 'Committee to Save the World';
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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The DAO of DeFi Index Funds

 

Animal Spirits: The DAO of DeFi Index Funds

Courtesy of 

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Index Coop

On today’s show we discuss: Listen here:

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Zero Hedge

Biden To Impose Tighter Travel Restrictions On Foreigners

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (0900ET): More reports about the new CDC-recommended travel restrictions have hit on Wednesday as the Biden White House has all but confirmed its plans to impose new restrictions on travel despite the WHO's pleas that South Africa not be penalized for warning the world about the new variant.

To be sure, the restrictions being considered by the administration would still allow travelers with up-to-date COVID testing (within the last 24 hours) to enter the country. Presently, vaccinated travelers must get tested within three days of boarding their fligh...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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