Posts Tagged ‘RT’

M&A Monday – Goldman’s Golden Goose

Hope springs eternal at Goldman Sachs.

This morning our favorite Banksters goosed the EU markets by upping targets on international mining operators Kazakhmys, Lonmin and BHP and that got the European markets off to a flying start out of the gate, despite the fact that UBS had just DOWNgraded the same sector on Friday.  UBS said on Friday that the sector is facing difficult times concerning potential growth with government rulings on mineral leases and the proposed supertax on mining profits in Australia set to hinder metal-based stocks.

We also have a lot of M&A activity, also courtesy of GS, who are leading the resurgence this year with 225 deals to date worth $401.6Bn, accounting for about 20% of all activity going through Goldman's sticky fingers.  In a sign of the times, however, GS only generated $961M in revenues as an M&A advisor as they cut a lot of discounts in order to land the top spot in dealmaking.  Although outdealt by GS, MS, Rothchild, JPM and DB all made more in fees than the Uncle Lloyd show.

In a sign of the end of times, GS's London Headquarters has been taken over by lenders after the owner fell into receivership.  GS's landlord, Antedon, is an offshore real estate firm that bought the building for $500M at the top of the market in 2007 and GS has locked up the building through 2026 at what seems to be not enough money to keep Antedon liquid – it would be very interesting to trace the web of deals that led to this massive default.  

Meanwhile, the consortium of Irish investors that own GS's other London building are also bailing out, this action is coinciding with what Ireland's Independent says is a campaign by Wall Street Hedge Funds to short sell Irish Government Bonds.  US hedge funds Groveland Capital and Corrientes Advisors are thought to have taken major positions against Irish debt. Giant €60bn asset-manager Pictet also revealed that it had earlier bet against Irish government bonds. JP Morgan is also thought to have taken a bearish position on Irish debt.  The International Monetary Fund estimated that up to €3bn of Ireland's debt was being targeted by speculators through the uses of derivatives.

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Testy Tuesday Morning

Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday's high! 

As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day's volume.  We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we'll see how long the bull's luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.

The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight's earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we'll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order.  SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term.  SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June. 

FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning.  FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter.  Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50.  Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI.  After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday.  AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters. 

We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?).  Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday's ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this)We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won't repeat it – suffice to say
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Financial RoadmapWe're just waiting on the Fed today, as are the rest of the markets.

Yesterday's volume was the lowest since Sept 11th but not as low as Monday, which was our lowest volume since the end of June, just before we had a 5% correction.  June 26th and 29th were our last two consecutive ultra-low volume days but June 30th was much bigger (a down 100 day), July 1st was up again on low volume and then July 2nd was another big down day and we bottomed out on July 10th.  That was the time that the media was telling us we were forming a "classic" head and shoulders pattern and were doomed to revisit the March lows.  It was also the last time we enthusiastically bought stocks

At the time of that weekly review (7/11), we had CAL at $10 (now $16.82), CBS at $5.97 (now $12.58), COST at $43.45 (now $58.58), CVX – who we just shorted – at $58.20 (now $72.60), DIS at $22.41 (now $28.38), EXM at $6.05 (now $7.32), RT at $7.12 (now $8.85), SNDK at $14.47 (now $22.91), SPY at $87.96 (now $107.27), SPWRA at $22.35 (now $32.63), SUN at $22.09 (now $27.75), V at $59.86 (now $74.41), VLO at $15.57 (now $20.50), WFR at $16.61 (now 19.09), X at $30.77 (now $50.45), XLF at $11.10 (now $15.35), XOM at $65.12 (now $69.85) and ZION at $11 (now $19).  Of course our members had much better entries as we had been targeting our entries on all of those but anyone reading our weekend review on July 11th could have played along at home from those prices (we even spiked down at Monday's open) and when I say we are now bearish – it is that we are bearishly protecting these ridiculous profits – the kind of profits you usually don't get after 3 years, not 3 months!

Overall, the broader market is up 20% over that time so it can be argued that a monkey with a dart board could have made good picks at that time but, if you read that week's notes – you'll notice that this monkey was screaming for people to buy and was going against what pretty much EVERY other analyst was saying and I was confident enough…
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Thrilling Thursday Morning – Beijing Bop

Hey Ho, let's go!

That is, of course, what residents of Macau are required to chant every morning in honor of Stanley Ho, who held the monopoly on casinos in China until 1992.  This morning it turns out Macau's economy contracted by 13.7% in Q2, it's 3rd consecutive quarter of shrinkage.  It's possible that the restrictions placed on civil servants in 2008 to stop them from gambling and to curb money laundering has caused much of the decline why is the decline accelerating if things are so good in China?  One thing about Macau is that all the US businesses that are now there make it harder for the Chinese government to pad the statistics and, taken at face value, Maccau is underperfoming the rest of China by 22%.

This is worth noting today as China is leading the market bounce as the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said the authorities will promote a “stable and healthy” market, tempering investor concern that the government wants to curb equity and property speculation. Ministers from the Group of 20 nations are likely to suggest the global economy is healing when they meet in London this weekend, while the European Central Bank probably will keep interest rates at a record low today.  The Shangai composite index ran right up to the 5% rule today and has pulled a turnaround in global equities.  As noted in David Fry's chart, we were oversold and due for a little bounce anyway.   

copper chart

As noted by Ben over in our Chart School section, copper has climbed back into the "stupid zone" on that news but still has a ways to go before getting stupid enough to short again.  We'll be keeping an eye on the copper miners like PCU, FCX and RTP as well as BHP, who got a nice pop on a UBS upgrade this morning but it's a little early to short until we see jobs reports today and tomorrow.  

This is not surprising to us as we read the Fed minutes yesterday and the greenest shoot they could find was that things were picking up in other countries, a favorite ploy we discussed in Monday's post as the Shanghai was falling 6.7% that day.  Fortunately, we were playing bullish into the close as we know how
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Minutes Might Help

Wheee what a ride!

I don't think we could have had a better day as the move up allowed us to place our bear plays (we went naked on our DIA $98 puts right at the top at 10 am) and the only fear we had was the morning data but by 10:10 I sent out an Alert to Members reviewing the bullish-looking data but then concluding: "Still this should give us a big boost with volume still light at 30M at 10am.  Unless we break 9,600 with some authority, this should just be another shorting opportunity."  We were still concerned about good Auto Sales numbers boosting us back up but they were actually a series of disappointments all day long.

As David Fry points out in his morning post: "Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before."  This is why PSW always stresses the fundamentals in stock trading.  The market can trade against them for quite some time but, eventually, the true value will set you free (and often can make you a very nice profit!).  I've had a very tough month in August pointing out the the news hasn't "jived with reality" and suddenly we have gone from feeling overly conservative to being the only well-positioned people around – in cash, with plenty of winning puts and ready for another round of bottom fishing with the VIX right back at 30, which gives us exactly what we need to run our favorite plays.

We still have tons of cash in our $100,000 Virtual Portfolio and I'll be initiating some buy/writes this week.  I already proposed one for TTWO after last night's earnings but now it looks like I'm not the only one who thought they looked pretty good and we're not going to chase – there are, once again, plenty of fish in the sea!  The last time we ran a Buy List was the week of July 6th and if you want to see what an actual list that goes 18 for 18 with an average upside of over 25% looks like, you can
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Thrill-Ride Thursday, Finally Some Earnings!

Wheee, what a day yesterday!

Of course we hit it out of the ballpark with our ICE puts as that stock melted so fast it turned to vapors (or at least the calls did!).  Fortunately, we had the puts and the Aug $95 puts I mentioned in the morning post, that we had taken at $6.20 on Tuesday, opened at $8.50 and ran up to $14.35 (up 131%) at the day's end – all without a significant pullback to stop us out.  Since we LOVE to go back to a well that's paying off, we jumped on the Aug $90 puts for $3 as our first trade of the day at 9:39 and those finished the day at $7.35 (up 145%), not bad for our 3rd play on the same stock in 48 hours! 

The best thing about having 100%+ put side winners in a downturn is it gives us free reign to speculate on the upside.  Since we had a bottomish view of the downturn yesterday, we were able to use the cushion provided by the gains on ICE (as well as our longer-term DIA and USO short positions) to establish a bunch of speculative upside positions on stocks we thought were bottoming.  The key to this strategy is position sizing and virtual portfolio management.  If you invest, for example, $2,000 per position and are willing to take 20% losses as a stop-out, then having a 100% winner on ICE (and we had 3!) allows you to take 5 bullish position as the total risk on $10,000 is the $2,000 you gained on the bear side.  We don't just mindlessly flip-flop of course.  In fact, it's been more than a month since we picked up bullish positions for more than a quick trade and we're not SURE these are going to work but, since we had the winning put plays, it's a good place to make a stand – dipping our toes in the bullish waters once again.

I mentioned our brand-new $5,000 Virtual Portfolio yesterday and our first play was a net .71 spread on AA where we bought the $7.50 calls for $1.75 and sold the $9 calls for $1.04.  On yesterday's dip, we had the opportunity to take out the $9 calls for .70, which was a .35 profit and left us with the naked $7.50 calls at net $1.40, with a break-even at…
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Phil's Favorites

"If you want to fundamentally change society, you first have to break it."


Here are a number of related, overlapping articles discussing an enormous social experiment called the US 2016 presidential election. Key players include Cambridge Analytica (a voter-profiling company with "an arsenal of weapons" to fight a culture war), billionaire Robert Mercer, Stephen Bannon, the Trump campaign, Facebook, algorithms, the American people, Christopher Wylie (whistleblower who worked at Cambridge Analytica), Alexander Nix (Cambridge Analytica's CEO), and the Russian oil giant, Lukoil.

How Trump Consultants Exploited the Facebook Data of Millions (NY Times)

LONDON — As the upstart voter-profiling company Cambridge Analytica prepared to wade into the 2014 American midterm elections, it had a problem.

The firm had secured a $15 million ...

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Members' Corner

"If you want to fundamentally change society, you first have to break it."


Here are a number of related, overlapping articles discussing an enormous social experiment called the US 2016 presidential election. Key players include Cambridge Analytica (a voter-profiling company with "an arsenal of weapons" to fight a culture war), billionaire Robert Mercer, Stephen Bannon, the Trump campaign, Facebook, algorithms, the American people, Christopher Wylie (whistleblower who worked at Cambridge Analytica), Alexander Nix (Cambridge Analytica's CEO), and the Russian oil giant, Lukoil.

How Trump Consultants Exploited the Facebook Data of Millions (NY Times)

LONDON — As the upstart voter-profiling company Cambridge Analytica prepared to wade into the 2014 American midterm elections, it had a problem.

The firm had secured a $15 million ...

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Zero Hedge

And The US Town With The Highest Average Income Is...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A few days ago, we published a Property Shark analysis of the wealthiest zip codes in America, and found that - to our complete lack of surprise - the wealthiest towns are clustered around the Bay Area and New York City A, attend their own schools, shop at their own stores and live in their own exclusive enclaves of wealth.

While those data were largely anticipated, that study also ...

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Digital Currencies

"We've Been Hearing A Lot Of Complaints" - City Passes First US Bitcoin Mining Ban

Courtesy of Zere Hedge

In sleepy upstate New York, one small post-industrial city has adopted what's widely believed to be the first bitcoin mining ban in the US. On Thursday evening, the city council in Plattsburgh New York voted unanimously to impose an 18-month moratorium on bitcoin mining, per Motherboard.

As we pointed out earlier this month, two large-scale bitcoin mining operations in the town had become a tremendous drain on the local utilities. This is a problem because, according to the Municipal Electric Utility Association, since the 19...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update, demand is present

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When a Wyckoff trader looks at a stock chart of price and volume one looks for foot prints of material demand and supply. The current bitcoin chart shows very significant demand prints.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles...

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Connor Browne - FAANG Stocks Dominance

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

They are known as the FAANGs but Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet should also be dubbed the great disruptors. They have created new businesses and destroyed old ones, changing the way we conduct our personal and business lives in the process.

]]> Get Our Activist Investing Case Study!

Get the entire 10-part series on our in-depth study on activist investing in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or print it out to read anywhere! Sign up below!

Check out our H2 hedge fund letters here.


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Insider Scoop

BofA: Lyft, Magna Could Be The First Of Many Autonomous Vehicle Partnerships

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MGA Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today Earnings Scheduled For February 22, 2018 ... more from Insider


How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida


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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!


We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.


EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>