Posts Tagged ‘San Francisco Fed’

San Francisco Fed Concerned About Consumer Deleveraging

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge

San Francisco Fed Concerned About Consumer Deleveraging

One of the core macroeconomic themes that Zero Hedge has been expounding on since inception, which mirrors some of the major concerns of David Rosenberg, has been the evaporation of consumer wealth, income and equity as a function of both declining stock and real asset values and persistently high consumer debt. In an economic paper, the San Francisco Federal Reserve confirms that these concerns are not unfounded, and could be the very core of the processes that undermine the administration’s attempts to restore economic growth.

While the administration is doing all it can through various media conduits to imprint the idea that inflation is all but a guaranteed reality at this point, so that consumers begin borrowing at an expansive pace yet again, consumer leveraging is exactly the process that has commenced unwinding, and the obvious impact on the personal saving rate which has been growing at a dramatic pace, has been visible throughout the economy. And as the consumer deleverages additionally, deflation is a certainty, as the combined impact of asset value decline and associated leverage flow through the economy, further depressed prices of goods and services. The four charts below from the Fed’s release strike at the heart of the administration’s faulty attempt to relever the US consumer.


 

Unfortunately for Bernanke and Geithner, the deleveraging process has commenced, and regardless of how many treasuries are issued, and how much additional debt the U.S. incurs, the demand side for credit is just not there, sticking banks with basements full of shrinkwrapped packages of hundred dollar bills, that will sit dusty and unused for years. The only immediate impact is that at some point in the not too distant future, the U.S. will need to print bonds to satisfy just the interest payments on these very bonds, which is an unsustainable state and only has one outcome.

In a very amusing section from the release, the San Fran Fed is discussing the financial behaviour of the consumer, when in fact the very same words are 100% applicable to the U.S. Treasury itself:

More than 20 years ago, economist Hyman Minsky (1986) proposed a “financial instability hypothesis.” He argued that prosperous times can often induce borrowers to accumulate debt beyond their ability to repay


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Phil's Favorites

"Make It Stop"

 

“Make It Stop”

Courtesy of 

Every time the stock market falls, no really, every single time, a friend of mine texts me the same thing: “Make it stop.” And every time I tell him the same thing- “You should hope stocks go a lot lower.”

For people still contributing to their retirement accounts, they shouldn’t fear lower prices, they should pray for them.

Let’s look at a real world hypothetical example.

I sorted all twenty-year rolling returns for the S&P 500 and plucked returns near the median. Stocks had nearly identical compound annual growth rates in the ...



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Zero Hedge

The "Trade War" Is Over, Trump Just Doesn't Realize It Yet!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

On Tuesday, the markets bid higher following a statement from the U.S. Trade Representative’s office that tariffs will commence on September 1st, but that some products will be delayed until December 15th. To wit:

“…some tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 as planned, ‘certain products are bei...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports 10-Year Bullish Trend Being Tested! Rally Time or Breakdown?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is the DJ Transportation Index presenting a rare buying opportunity? The broad market most likely hopes so!

Transports have spent the majority of the past decade creating a series of higher lows. This pattern has created rising channel (1), which started back in 2009.

Transports have created a bearish divergence to the S&P 500 over the past 20-months, as they have created lower highs, while the S&P has done the exact opposite.

The softness in Transports has the testing its May lows and the 10-year rising channel to start out the week at (2). While testing...



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Insider Scoop

Piper Jaffray: AMD 'More Or Less Fully Valued'

Courtesy of Benzinga

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) has an “exciting” product portfolio, but the recent rise in the semiconductor company’s share price is keeping Piper Jaffray on the sidelines.

The Analyst

Harsh Kumar started coverage of Advanced Micro Devices with a Neutral rating and $33 p...



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The Technical Traders

August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow - Are You Ready?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our August 19 breakdown prediction from
months ago has really taken root with many of our followers and readers.  We’ve been getting emails and messages from
hundreds of our followers asking for updates regarding this prediction.  Well, here is the last update before the
August 19th date (tomorrow) and we hope you have been taking our
research to heart. 

First, we believe the August 19 breakdown
date will be the start of something that could last for more than 5 to 12+
months.  So, please understand that our
predicted date is not a make-or-break type of scenario for traders.  It means that we believe this date...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Long Term Stock Market Chart Perspective

Courtesy of Lee Adler

After a big day like yesterday, I like to get a little long term stock market chart perspective. (Yes, this stilted verbiage is for search engine optimization ).

We do that with a monthly bar chart, which I update when relevant in Lee Adler’s Technical Trader. That’s in addition to the regular daily bar/cycle charts covering the past year, and a weekly cycle chart covering the past 4 years.

I wrote on July 14, in reference to the price and indicator patterns on the weekly chart:

The market has overshot a 3-4 year cycle projection in terms of both price and time. There are no long term projections. A 4 year cycle high is ideally due now. A 4 ye...



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Chart School

Bitcoin 2019 fractal with Gold 2013

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Funny how price action patterns repeat, double tops, head and shoulders. These are simply market fractals of supply and demand.

More from RTT Tv

Ref: US Crypto Holders Only Have a Few Days to Reply to the IRS 6173 Letter

Today's news from the US IRS has been blamed for the recent price slump, yet the bitcoin fractal like the gold fractal suggest the market players have set bitcoin up for a slump to $9000 USD long before the IRS news hit the wire.

Get the impression some market players missed out on the b...

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Digital Currencies

New Zealand Becomes 1st Country To Legalize Payment Of Salaries In Crypto

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been on a persistent upswing this year, but they're still pretty volatile. But during a time when even some of the most developed economies in the word are watching their currencies bounce around like the Argentine peso (just take a look at a six-month chart for GBPUSD), New Zealand has decided to take the plunge and become the first country to legalize payment in bitcoin, the FT reports.

The ruling by New Zealand’s tax authority allows salaries and wages to b...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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