Posts Tagged ‘savings rate’

Michael Pento Asks If The Fed Ultimately Controls Interest Rates

Michael Pento Asks If The Fed Ultimately Controls Interest Rates

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

By Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital

Does the Fed Ultimately Control Interest Rates?

In forecasting the consequences of current economic policy, many pundits are downplaying the risks associated with the surging national debt and the rapid expansion of marketable Treasury securities. Their comfort stems from the belief that a staggering debt burden will be manageable as long as interest rates remain extremely low; and, as they believe the Fed is in complete control of setting rates across the yield curve, they see no danger of rates ever rising past the point of comfort. Those who subscribe to this fairy tale forget that, in real life, there are many more hands on the interest rate steering wheel.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2010 deficit will exceed $1.3 trillion and total US debt now stands at $13.4 trillion (92% of GDP). That’s a lot of debt that needs floating. Yet, the 10-year note is yielding 2.8%-- which is 4.5 points below its 40-year average of 7.3%! Experience teaches that even moderately long-term investors should be expecting rising rates. Regardless of the extreme and obvious misalignment of fundamentals and bond prices, the mantra from the dollar shills remains firm: “The US dollar will always be the world’s reserve currency, and the US bond market will always be regarded as the safe-haven depository for global savings.”

With interest rates having been so low for so long, it’s understandable that many people have forgotten that central banks are not ultimately in control of interest rates. It is true that the Fed can be highly influential across the yield curve and can be especially effective in controlling the short end. But, in the end, the free market has the last word on the cost of money.

Although the Fed has certainly created enough new dollars to send prices higher, recessionary forces are, for now, disguising the evidence of runaway inflation. But when inflation finally erupts into the daylight, it will be impossible for borrowing costs to stay low. No one can realistically be expected to loan money below the rate of inflation. To attract buyers, the Treasury will have to offer a real rate of return.

Since our publicly traded debt level is increasing while our personal saving rate is not, we must inevitably…
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Phil's Favorites

Is Elon Musk getting cold feet? Why the entrepreneur may be trying to pull out of buying Twitter

 

Is Elon Musk getting cold feet? Why the entrepreneur may be trying to pull out of buying Twitter

New twists and turns, as Elon Musk raises concerns about Twitter before the purchase deal is complete. (Patrick Pleul/Pool via AP, File)

Courtesy of Anup Srivastava, University of Calgary

Has Elon Musk developed cold feet? Is he experiencing buyer’s remorse? Or is he trying to create drama for the markets, true to his public persona? Or could Musk be negotiating for a better price?

Musk started buying Twitter stock in January. On March 14, he announced a 9.2 pe...



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Politics

Energy at the End of the World Seminar - Peter Zeihan

 

Energy at the End of the World Seminar - Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan's Seminar to Naval Post-Graduate Course

 

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Biotech/COVID-19

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what's known about this smallpox cousin

 

What is monkeypox? A microbiologist explains what’s known about this smallpox cousin

Monkeypox causes lesions that resemble pus-filled blisters, which eventually scab over. CDC/Getty Images

Courtesy of Rodney E. Rohde, Texas State University

On May 18, 2022, Massachusetts health officials and the Centers for Disease Control ...



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Zero Hedge

Anti-Government Protests Spread In Iran After Flour-Based Food Staples Jump 300%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Large-scale street protests have been raging in Iran since last week, as inflation and the war in Ukraine have driven flour-based food staples to jump by as much as 300% - this also after the government moved to cut food subsidies.

Amid the soaring prices, already in an economy devastated by years of US sanctions gong back to the Trump administration's pullout of the JCPOA nuclear deal, the central government has few options in terms of relief for the populace given assets abroad remain frozen.

Demonstrators have been outraged over food ...



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ValueWalk

3 Retailers That Defied First Quarter Headwinds

By MarketBeat. Originally published at ValueWalk.

These Retailers Gave Positive Guidance For 2022

The takeaway from Q1 earnings for the retailers (NYSEARCA:XRT) is slowing growth and margin compression. Those factors have the sector down across verticals but not all retailers are feeling the same pain. Companies like Footlocker, V.F. Corporation, and Canada Goose were not only able to limit damage to their margins but provide a positive forecast for the year. While we can’t promise conditions won’t worsen, we can say these high-quality apparel manufacturers are defying the odds and producing results. In two cases, a...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will Gold Miners (GDX) Decline Find Support At $30?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been a rough past few weeks for the Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

A bearish reversal in April has sent shares spiraling into May, down nearly 25%.

Today’s “weekly” chart of the Gold Miners (GDX) from Marketsmith.com highlights this reversal, as well as important technical support.

As you can see, GDX has come down sharply of late. But what’s important to note here is that the Gold Miners are testing critical price support at (1). As you can see, GDX is trading near the $30 level that has been price support and resistance several times over the past 6 years.

Will the sharp se...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

 

Stablecoin volatility shows an urgent need for regulation to protect consumers

Shutterstock/David Sandron

Courtesy of Matthew Shillito, University of Liverpool

Some cryptocurrencies have always been fairly volatile, with values soaring or plunging within a short space of time. So for the more cautious investor, “stablecoins” were considered the sensible place to go. As the name implies, they are designed to be a steadier and safer bet.

At the moment though, that stability is proving hard to find. The value of o...



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Chart School

Powell doing a Volker to crush inflation, yeah right!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

In 1979, Volker was equal to Goliath as he had a good chance of crushing inflation, today the debt Goliath is massive.

In the video below David Rosenberg explains the FED is on a 'Volker' mission to crush inflation no matter what happens to risk on assets like stocks.

David Rosenberg thinking is challenged when ask about the current US debt levels, as Paul Volker did say that he could not have crushed inflation with the debt levels of today.  David Rosenberg simply says the FED is going to hike no matter what, until something very serious breaks.

The question remains will something break in the markets after 1%, 1.5% or 2% hikes. No one knows. But as the US debt to GDP% is over 120% this suggests s...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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