Posts Tagged ‘second stimulus’

Consumer Confidence Expectations Soar, Current Confidence in Gutter; Larry Summers Yaps about Second Stimulus

Consumer Confidence Expectations Soar, Current Confidence in Gutter; Larry Summers Yaps about Second Stimulus

Courtesy of Mish

A saleswoman at a clothing shop attracts customers in a shopping district in Tokyo

Although the consumer confidence current conditions index remains in the gutter, the expectations index shows increasing optimism. Please consider Consumers Gain Confidence as Employment Improves.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 63.3, exceeding all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level in two years, according to a report from the New York-based private research group. Other figures showed home prices rose less than projected in the year through March.

“I’m relatively optimistic that we’ll get through the European debt crisis without dire economic consequences, but the jury is still out on that one,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. Home prices “are going to drag along the bottom for a while until we get a better handle on the overhang” of inventories.

The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions increased to 30.2 this month, the highest level since December 2008. The gauge of expectations for the next six months surged to 85.3, the highest point since August 2007, four months before the recession began.

The percent of respondents expecting more jobs will become available increased to the highest point since December 2003.

Confidence, “although still weak by historical levels, appears to be gaining traction,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. Expectations have been “fueled primarily by growing optimism about business and labor market conditions,” she said.

Expectations Not the Same as Jobs

Present conditions are telling one story while expectations are another. However, expectations are not the same as jobs. People are starting to believe nonsense about the strengthening economy even as the treasury market and credit markets are singing a different tune.

I happen to believe the credit markets.

5-year treasury yields and rising junk bond yields paint a far different picture than consumer expectations. (Please see Corporate Bonds Smacked, Junk Yields Rise, Deals Pulled; Treasuries Rally; Yield Curve Flattens; Global Slowdown Coming for details).

No matter what one thinks of the US economy in isolation, it should be crystal clear that Europe is slowing and China is gasping for air with an export model not prepared for a slowdown anywhere, let alone a global slowdown.

Moreover, various stimulus packages in the US have run their…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Stop the madness now!

Excellent post on the economy and saving it (or not) by Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns. (My yellow highlighting) – Ilene

Stop the madness now!

mad as hellThis is a post I just wrote over at Yves Smith’s site Naked Capitalism in response to a reader request. Marshall Auerback has already written a reply as well and I will post this later today.

A reader at Naked Capitalism asked us to respond to a recent article from the Christian Science Monitor asking Does US need a second stimulus to create jobs?

Marshall Auerback has already done some heavy lifting. He says emphatically yes. Now I want to take a crack at this. My short answer is no. But before I go into this, as an aside, I wanted to mention Marshall’s new smiling, happy picture up at the great blog New Deal 2.0 where he now writes.  Earlier, when Credit Writedowns was hosted at Blogger, he used a picture best described as a mug shot in his profile, but he has changed that one too (although he smiles there a little less). He thinks we haven’t noticed this sleight of hand.  Well I have! Once upon a time, Marshall wrote with a man I called all bearish, all the time this summer. Take a look at that post; you don’t see him smiling now do you? We have Lynn Parramore, New Deal 2.0’s editor to thank for making Marshall Auerback into an optimist.

Different policy choices

But all teasing aside, I do want to take the opposite side of this trade.  You see I too was a deficit hawk. And while I may have been backing fiscal stimulus, I have felt conflicted for doing so. Here’s how I see it. 

You have four options:

  1. No stimulus. Let the chips fall where they may. Yves Smith calls this the ‘Mellonite liquidationist mode.’ The thinking here is that trying to avoid the inevitable bust only makes it that much larger. And the economic policies during recessions in 1991 and 2001 seem to bear that out. The Harding Recession of 1921 is commonly seen as gold standard response.
  2. Monetary stimulus only. Quantitative easing mania. My understanding is this is what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been advocating.   The thinking here is that the flood of money and the


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Airlines are going bust in droves, so why do so many people try to launch them?

 

Airlines are going bust in droves, so why do so many people try to launch them?

‘Taxi for Flybmi.’ G Tipene

Courtesy of Loizos Heracleous, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Yet another airline has collapsed – this time British operation Flybmi, costing almost 400 jobs as hundreds of flights were cancelled at short notice. It is the latest in a ...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Elon Musk Takes Out $50 Million in New Loans, Mortgaging Five Homes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

We were one of the very first to speculate that Elon Musk had mortgaged 5 of his homes in late January, when we highlighted research by an internet sleuth on Musk's personal financial situation. According to public records cited by Tesla skeptic EVent Horizon and laid out in a timeline on Sutori in late January, Elon Musk looked as though he had leveraged some of his personal real estate.

A follow up report from Bloomberg ha...



more from Tyler

ValueWalk

Ray Dalio Gives 3 Financial Recommendations For Millennials

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Founder, Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio talks to Julia La Roche in 2018 of Yahoo Finance about the value of savings and investing.

Ray Dalio Gives 3 Financial Recommendations For Millennials

Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Trans...



more from ValueWalk

Kimble Charting Solutions

Giant Topping Pattern Could Be Forming, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The first fact of the day; The long-term trend for tech remains up and the decline into the lows on Christmas Eve DID NOT break this trend!

This chart looks at NDX 100 ETF (QQQ) on a weekly basis over the past 14-years. For the past decade, since the lows in late 2009, QQQ has remained inside of rising channel (1). As you can see the decline into the end of the year lows, did nothing more than test support, which held and a strong rally has followed!

Over the past few months, QQQ could be forming a “Head & Shoulders&...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Salesforce.com's Q4 Report Should Trigger Higher Valuation, Says Bullish Oppenheimer

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM Oppenheimer Praises HubSpot's Execution, Downgrades On Valuation Benzinga's Top Upgrade...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 02 August 2018, 07:48:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: $600 BN interest payments for US gov, print baby print



Date Found: Sunday, 05 August 2018, 09:22:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Hire FED interest rates always brings double trouble



Date Found: Monday, 06 August ...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Surging: Bitcoin, Ethereum Hit One-Month Highs As Institutions Dip Toes

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Cryptocurrencies are surging while the US equity markets take the day off. Ethereum is up over 18% from Friday's 'close' and the rest of the crypto space is a sea of green. While no immediate catalyst (headline or technical level) is clear, increasing chatter over institutional investors dipping their toes in the space have prompted an extension of the positive trend.

A sea of green...

Source: Coin360

Ethereum is leading the charge follow...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Cancer: new DNA sequencing technique analyses tumours cell by cell to fight disease

Illustration of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, showing lymphoblasts in blood. Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Alba Rodriguez-Meira, University of Oxford and Adam Mead, University of Oxford

...

more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>