Posts Tagged ‘selling the news’

FOMC POLICY STATEMENT & MARKET WRAP

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

FOMC POLICY STATEMENT

fed policyIt looks like no material changes to the statement.  The Fed is continuing their ridiculously predictable dollar destructive/ asset bubble policy.  As we suspected, the dollar is getting crushed, bonds are tanking, stocks are soaring and gold is higher.  I would be a seller of this priced-in news.

Release Date: November 4, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of


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YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ‘EM….

YOU GOTTA KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ‘EM….

WSOP No-Limit Texas Hold 'em World Championship

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

I still maintain that the rest of earnings season will be broadly positive, however, two negative trends have developed over the course of the last few days that have changed my market outlook from bullish to neutral.

The first change in trend has been the recent spat of “selling the news”.  After the 6% run-up since the beginning of earnings season we are now seeing investors sell into strength.  This is a clear sign that the buying power is waning.  In essence, the owners of equities now have more incentive to sell than new buyers have to buy mainly because earnings were largely priced in over the course of the last few weeks. A new positive catalyst will need to develop from here for stocks to make a substantial move higher.

The second negative trend is the move in the dollar.  Today’s nearly 1% decline in the dollar index is staggering.  The negative trajectory of this move is simply unsustainable.  I also believe the $1.50 mark in the Euro is one that will not be tolerated for long.   Compounded by the move in the dollar is the surge in oil prices.  It’s only a matter of time before analysts become increasingly concerned about the impact of high oil prices on consumers. Any move higher in the dollar (for whatever reason – short covering, politics, etc) will weigh on the market.

For these reasons I think it is prudent to take a step back from the poker table and take a break.  Although I am not shifting to a short position I do view this market as one that is characterized by abnormally high risks.  The strength could very well continue through the next 3 weeks of earnings season, but after the 6% surge over the last 4 weeks I think it is prudent to take profits here.

Sometimes when you’re sitting on a strong hand you need to realize that the risks outweigh the rewards and that perhaps your hand isn’t quite as strong as you think….

****

Kenny Rogers – The Gambler

 


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Zero Hedge

Bond Bloodbath Blows Up Stocks As Redditors-Revenge Hammers Hedgies (Again)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bonds and stocks were both battered today...

Source: Bloomberg

Which is why we wheeled out the deer!

Today was the worst day for equity/bond investors since March 2020...

...



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Politics

What is fascism?

 

What is fascism?

A Donald Trump supporter wears a gas mask and holds a bust of him after he and hundreds of others stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of John Broich, Case Western Reserve University

Since before Donald Trump took office, historians have debated whether he is a fascist.

As a teacher of World War II history...



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Phil's Favorites

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar - February 24, 2021

 

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at PSW! 

 

Phil's Stock World's Weekly Webinar – February 10, 2021

Major Topics:

00:00:39 - Future Charts
00:01:06 - Russell 2000
00:01:26 - NASDAQ 100
00:01:45 - S&P 500 | DJIA
00:04:41 - BA
00:06:19 - Checking on the Market
00:07:46 - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
00:12:32 ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

How does the Johnson & Johnson vaccine compare to other coronavirus vaccines? 4 questions answered

 

How does the Johnson & Johnson vaccine compare to other coronavirus vaccines? 4 questions answered

The Johnson & Johnson vaccine only requires one dose. Phill Magoke/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Maureen Ferran, Rochester Institute of Technology

Editor’s note: On Tuesday, Feb. 24, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration released the results of its trial of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine. The FDA found the vaccine to be safe...



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ValueWalk

The Math On Tesla Inc (TSLA) Doesn't Add Up

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In his recent interview with Tobias, Drew Dickson of Albert Bridge. discussed The Math On Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) Doesn’t Add Up. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Math On Tesla Doesn't Add Up

Mine is it would keep me away from owning something like Tesla, unfortunately, because I can’t get there, even in the most– Toyota and Volkswagen both were founded in 1937, and they’re just incredible global-scale b...



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Digital Currencies

Bridgewater Explains When It Will Invest In Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Two weeks ago, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio called Bitcoin "one hell of an invention" adding that:

"I expect Bridgewater to soon offer an alt-cash fund and a storehold of wealth fund in order to better deal with the devaluation of money and credit that we consider to be a major risk and opportunity, and Bitcoin won’t escape our scrutiny.”

And now, after significant attention that his comments received, Senior Portfolio Strategist Jim Haskel sits dow...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is Rising Inflation About To Hit U.S. Economy In Big Way?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Inflation seems to be a thing of the past… but current trading in bond and commodity markets tell us that it could become a thing of the future!

Inflation hasn’t been an issue, or even on our radar, since the 1980s. Sure, the 2007 surge in oil prices offered some concern but the financial crisis killed any thoughts of inflation.

So what’s got us concerned about inflation in 2021?

Today we take a look at long-term charts of two potential inflation indicators: Crude Oil ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:46:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Low liquidity means price can MOVE fast either way!



Date Found: Saturday, 29 August 2020, 05:52:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: if you have 100% of life savings in stocks alone, please adjust for a crash...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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