Posts Tagged ‘service sector’

There Are Now More Government Employees than Goods-Producing Workers in the US

There Are Now More Government Employees than Goods-Producing Workers in the US

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

For the first time there are decidedly more government employees than goods-producing (manufacturing) employees in the US according to the Department of Labor.

This chart is from The Mess That Greenspan Made here.

It is interesting to think about this in terms of health care, pension plans, job security, employee loyalty, and so forth.

The reason for this is not the growth of government jobs but rather the drastic shrinkage in US based manufacturing employment while government employment remains resilient. As a percent of the population, the number of government employees is now about 9% which is slightly lower than it was in the 1970′s.

The Service sector dominates. There is a nice chart showing goods-producing, government, service, and non-employed percentages from EconomPicData here.

US corporations have been offshoring jobs for many years, in part due to the structural problems of benefits and environmental costs in a developed nation and Asian mercantilism. Some of this transfer of employee is due to natural market forces, but a great deal of it is a result of purposeful national policy and trade practices such as currency pegs, for example.

As Adam Smith observed in Wealth of Nations (1776):

"To found a great empire for the sole purpose of raising … customers may at first sight appear a project fit only for a nation of shopkeepers. It is, however, a project altogether unfit for a nation of shopkeepers; but extremely fit for a nation whose government is influenced by shopkeepers."

In this case if one substitutes "kleptocrats" for "shopkeepers" and "dollar debt slaves" for "customers" then the quotation may fit the current situation in the US and its reserve currency empire quite well. It also helps to explain the steady role of the government bureaucracy in administering this paper empire, as well as the outsized financial sector.

But one underestimates the resilience of a free people at their peril, as did Napoleon dismissing the English, echoing Smith, "L’Angleterre est une nation de boutiquiers," prior, of course, to his Waterloo in June, 1815.


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Surveys Show Job Openings, Corporate Hiring Plans Anemic

Surveys Show Job Openings, Corporate Hiring Plans Anemic

Courtesy of Mish

Businessman carrying office belongings

Inquiring minds are watching Job Opening and Labor Turnover stats for signs of life.

There were 2.5 million job openings on the last business day of October 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was unchanged over the month at 1.9 percent. The openings rate has held relatively steady since March 2009. The hires rate (3.0 percent) and the separations rate (3.2 percent) were essentially unchanged and remained low. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector by industry and geographic region.

Job Openings

The job openings rate was unchanged in October at 1.9 percent. After falling steeply from mid-2007 through February 2009, the job openings rate has been steady at 1.8 percent or 1.9 percent since March 2009.

Hires

The hires rate was essentially unchanged in October at 3.0 percent. The rate has remained between 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent since February 2009. The hires level fell by 1.5 million from the most recent peak in July 2006 to March 2009 but has declined by only 133,000 since.

The hires rate was essentially unchanged in every industry and region in October. Over the 12 months ending in October, the hires rate (not seasonally adjusted) declined for total nonfarm and total private. The hires rate decreased over the 12 months for wholesale trade; retail trade; information; accommodation and food services; and state and local government. The rate increased for federal government.

Separations

The total separations, or turnover, rate was little changed in October and remained low at 3.2 percent. The total separations rate (not seasonally adjusted) decreased over the 12 months ending in October for total nonfarm and total private. Total separations includes quits (voluntary separations), layoffs and discharges (involuntary separations), and other separations (including retirements).

The total separations level is influenced by the relative contribution of its three components—quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. The percentage of total separations at the total nonfarm level attributable to the individual components has varied over time. The proportion of quits had exceeded the proportion of layoffs and discharges every month from the beginning of the series in December 2000 until November 2008 when layoffs and discharges became the


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Service Sector ISM Back In Contraction; Stimulus Fades Already

More signs pointing the way to the double-dip scenario. – Ilene

Service Sector ISM Back In Contraction; Stimulus Fades Already

Fairy

Courtesy of Mish

Inquiring minds are reading the November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after two consecutive months of expansion, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

What Respondents Are Saying …

  • "Capital markets remain very tight; lenders are not releasing funds for development projects, limiting expansion." (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • "Fourth quarter still looking grim, but potential upturn for Q1 2010." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "No one trusts that the recovery is real. Seems everything and everyone is in a holding pattern." (Public Administration)
  • "Business is still flat." (Wholesale Trade)
  • "U.S. business remains better than 2007 levels, although it’s been through personnel and cost reductions that we are now profitable. Business continues to be about 8 percent below 2008 levels." (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)

[click on table to enlarge]

Non-Manufacturing ISM History

Is This A Recovery?

Take good look at the chart immediately above. After sloshing around $trillions in bailouts and stimulus packages the NMI could barely get above break-even and topped in September.

New orders are up, but much of that is front-loaded government stimulus efforts. With government spending and reflation efforts by central bankers worldwide, it should not be surprising to see prices rising. Yet, employment is not confirming the pickup in business activity.

Double Dip Recession Warning

Paul Krugman is waking up to a possibility that I think is nearly a given. Please consider Double Dip Warning.

I’ve never been fully committed to the notion that we’re going to have a “double dip” — that the economy will slide back into recession. But it has been clear for a while that it’s a serious possibility, for two reasons. First, a large part of the growth we’ve had has been driven by the stimulus — but the stimulus has already had its maximum impact on the growth of GDP, will hit its maximum impact on the level of GDP in the middle of next year, and then will begin to fade out. Second, the rise in manufacturing production is to a large extent an inventory bounce


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ISM Shows Recession Not Over Yet

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ISM Shows Recession Not Over Yet 

Courtesy of Mish

The horn tooters have to wait at least another month before the recession is over judging from the non-manufacturing ISM numbers.

Please consider the July 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report shows the NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) dropped .6% in July to 46.4, contracting for the 10th consecutive month at a slightly faster rate.

Manufacturing vs. Service Sector ISM

ISM non-manufacturing survey results at a glance

click on chart for sharper image

The table shows that 8 out of 10 Non-Manufacturing components are worse this month than last month. Only deliveries are in the green while inventories are contracting at a slower rate.

By contrast, 7 out of 10 Manufacturing components are in the green and the other three are contracting at a slower pace.

I compared the 10 numbers that had direct equivalents.

Looking at the data, one has to wonder if the manufacturing numbers are an outlier and/or skewed by auto manufacturing anomalies.

coffee and muffin with Dave RosenbergRegardless, the NBER is unlikely to declare the end of the recession on numbers like these. Put away your party hats and horns for at least another month.

David Rosenberg commented this morning in Coffee and Muffin with Dave

"We ran some regressions that suggest that the equity market is already priced for the ISM to hit the 51 mark — as we saw in February 2002 when the index pierced 50 amid visions of a sustained inventory cycle, it was right at that time that the S&P 500 began to sputter. That’s the problem when all the good news — and then some — gets discounted so quickly. We still think disappointment will inevitably set in over the sustainability of an inventory re-stocking that fails to be backed up by a revival in consumer demand."

Indeed. The Global GDP Rebound Is Underway, But Who’s The Buyer? The answer of course is government, not the consumer, except for inventory rebuilding and "free money" programs like "cash for clunkers".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
 


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Zero Hedge

Haftar Blocks All Libyan Oil Exports Day Before Berlin Peace Conference

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Given Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar has over the past two years captured the majority of the oil and gas rich country's energy producing regions, he's now playing his biggest card yet to leverage international peace talks in his favor amid a final push for his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces to take Tripoli. 

Bloomberg reports Saturday that the Benghazi-based 'rebel' general has now "blocked oil exports at ports under his contr...



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Phil's Favorites

Oil Glut Overshadows Geopolitical Risk In 2020

Courtesy of Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com

The risk of oil supply disruptions from around the world has diminished, and rising non-OPEC production provides a “solid base from which to react to any escalation in geopolitical tension.”

In its January Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that there is plenty of oil sloshing around, despite the U.S. and Iran nearly going to war.

“We cannot know how the geopolitical situation will play out over time, but for now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded,” t...



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The Technical Traders

Energy Continues Basing Setup - Breakout Expected Near January 24th

Courtesy of Technical Traders

After watching Crude Oil fall from the $65
ppb level to the $58 ppb level (-10.7%) over the past few weeks, we still
believe the energy sector is setting up for another great trade for skilled
investors/traders.

We are all keenly aware that Winter is still
here and that heating oil demands may continue to push certain energy prices
higher.  Yet Winter is also a time when
people don’t travel as much and, overall, energy prices tend to weaken
throughout Winter.

Over the past 37 years, the historical monthly breakdown for Crude Oil is as follows:

December: Generally l...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Citigroup lifted Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) price target from $145 to $170. Caterpillar closed at $147.87 on Thursday.
  • UBS cut Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) price target from $37 to $35. Twitter shares closed at $34.19 on Thursday.
  • Morgan Stanley boosted the price target for Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM) from $113 to $118. Yum! Brands closed at $102.16 on Thursday.
  • Jefferies lifted the price target on Ventas, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Tesla About To Run Out Of Energy Here? Short-Term Peak Possible?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tesla (TSLA) has been screaming higher of late, as very impressive gains have taken place.

Is Tesla about to run out of energy/take a break/experience some selling pressure? A unique price setup is in play, that bulls might want want to be aware of.

This chart applies Fibonacci to the 2016 lows and 2017 highs at each (1). The impressive rally of late has it testing its 161% extension level, based upon those price points.

At the same time, it is hitting its 161% extension level, it finds itself at the top of a 7-year rising channel, with momentum hitting the highest ...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.

Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.



Gold Gann Angle ...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview for decades. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, Foxocracy: Inside the Network&...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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