Posts Tagged ‘SGR’

$5,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 6 – $5,614

Well we're back to cash…

After getting off to a great start, up 12% in the first 3 weeks, we were lucky this week to get back to 12% after having a run of bad luck (or bad skill actually, as we went bearish too early and got punished for it).  The goal of the $5,000 virtual portfolio is to play around the volatility of earnings and make no mistake, it's a high-risk way to trade $5,000 and is meant to be a small portion of a large virtual portfolio – not something you would want to do with your only $5,000.  Of course the usual disclaimer is, this is a virtual portfolio, don't try this at home, trading is dangerous, always consult a professional financial adviser, etc, etc.  The idea is to practice different option strategies and we're learning from our successes and failures – I hope! 

Our first play 5 plays that we closed were on AA, DIA, SGR, MCD,  and DELL, which had a total gain of $629 in our first 6 days.  For details on those trades, go to the Day 6 post.  We have been posting all of the moves for the $5KP in member chat, of course, but also on Seeking Alpha's Stock Talk, where we have discovered the added bonus that, like Twitter, you do not have to refresh the page to see new comments!  If you want to follow these trades, just click on "Follow" under my picture and you will automatically see any comments made there.  A full review of Stock Talk commentary regarding the $5KP is available here and please make sure you click "Follow" on my picture so that you will be able to track further updates.

We closed positions on WFC and AXP, up $258 in our last review on July 25th and we have since closed our YUM position with a $256 loss on the 28th, which was a shame as we gave up on 8 Aug $35 calls at .45 ($360) and they flew up to $2 ($1,600) just a week later.  Unfortunately, in a small virtual portfolio, you don't have the luxury of riding out your losses and, at the time, we felt lucky to escape this underperfomer with a relatively small loss.

A VNO put spread we couldn't fill the week of the 21st, was an easy fill the next week
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$5,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 3 – $5,598

We're up 12% in 3 weeks – not bad…

The goal of the $5,000 virtual portfolio is to play around the volatility of earnings and make no mistake, it's a high-risk way to trade $5,000 and is meant to be a small portion of a large virtual portfolio – not something you would want to do with your only $5,000.  Of course the usual disclaimer is, this is a virtual portfolio, don't try this at home, trading is dangerous, always consult a professional financial adviser, etc, etc.  The idea is to practice different option strategies and we're having a a very exciting first few weeks! 

Our first play 4 plays that we closed were on AA, DIA, SGR, MCD and DELL, which had a total gain of $629 in our first 6 days.  For details on those trades, go to the Day 6 post.  We have been posting all of the moves for the $5KP in member chat, of course, but also on Seeking Alpha's Stock Talk, where we have discovered the added bonus that, like Twitter, you do not have to refresh the page to see new comments!  If you want to follow these trades, just click on "Follow" under my picture and you will automatically see any comments made there.    

On Wednesday, we also had an open a ratio backspread play on YUM and we sold 6 Aug $37 calls for $1.15 ($690) and bought 4 Aug $35 calls for $2.20 ($880).  The idea of a trade like this into earnings is that a large drop will hurt your callers more than it hurts you and, to the upside, you have net $800 in the net $190 spread before you have to pay your 2 open callers a penny.  That means they would each have to go up $3 before wiping out your profits.  Since YUM was at $36 at the time and we did not feel it would be likely to go to $40, even on great earnings, the play made sense.  YUM had very poor earnings and dropped right down to $34, below our strike.  We decided to buy back the 6 Aug $37 calls for .40 ($240), so a gain of $450 on that leg.  That left us with the 4 naked Aug $35 puts, which we paid $880 for, less the $450 gains so we are in those 4 calls for an average of $1.13 per contract.  We have since doubled down that position at…
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$5,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Day 9 – $5,424

We had a pretty good week with our new virtual portfolio.

The goal of the $5,000 virtual portfolio is to play around the volatility of earnings and make no mistake, it's a high-risk way to trade $5,000 and is meant to be a small portion of a large virtual portfolio – not something you would want to do with your only $5,000.  Of course the usual disclaimer is, this is a virtual portfolio, don't try this at home, trading is dangerous, always consult a professional financial adviser, etc, etc.  The idea is to practice different option strategies and we had a very exciting first week! 

Our first play 4 plays that we closed were on AA, DIA, SGR, MCD and DELL, which had a total gain of $629 in our first 6 days.  For details on those trades, go to the Day 6 post.  We have been posting all of the moves for the $5KP in member chat, of course, but also on Seeking Alpha's Stock Talk, where we have discovered the added bonus that, like Twitter, you do not have to refresh the page to see new comments!  If you want to follow these trades, just click on "Follow" under my picture and you will automatically see any comments made there.    

On Wednesday, we also had an open a ratio backspread play on YUM and we sold 6 Aug $37 calls for $1.15 ($690) and bought 4 Aug $35 calls for $2.20 ($880).  The idea of a trade like this into earnings is that a large drop will hurt your callers more than it hurts you and, to the upside, you have net $800 in the net $190 spread before you have to pay your 2 open callers a penny.  That means they would each have to go up $3 before wiping out your profits.  Since YUM was at $36 at the time and we did not feel it would be likely to go to $40, even on great earnings, the play made sense.  YUM had very poor earnings and dropped right down to $34, below our strike.  We decided to buy back the 6 Aug $37 calls for .40 ($240), so a gain of $450 on that leg.  That left us with the 4 naked Aug $35 puts, which we paid $880 for, less the $450 gains so we are in those 4 calls for an average of $1.13 per contract.  The calls have fallen…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday? Industrial Production Edition

Whee, this is great!

Any excuse to take the markets higher and INTC was a good one last night.  We're thrilled because my 2:43 Trade Idea for members was "INTC Jan $17.50s for $1.28, speculative naked call with earnings tonight."  We don't do those very often but we looked primed for a pop and not much was expected from Intel, who were still expected to earn just 8 cents this quarter by the 44 analysts who are paid to follow them, despite the fact that they earned .11 last quarter (an 8-cent upside surprise) and had earned .28 last year in Q2.   That made the long call an excellent play since we were also willing to stick with them and add to the position if INTC had missed.   As it is, that should give us a nice 50%+ pop this morning! 

Other trades ideas from yesterday's Member chat were a GS put spread, AIG puts (and we can't wait for "earnings" on them!), DIA puts and calls as momentum plays, a YUM ratio backspread for the $5,000 Virtual Portfolio and a JPM bear put spread.  So we weren't overly enthusiastic in the run-up, mainly because we loaded up the truck in last week's dip with 18 bullish plays that I reviewed in the weekend wrap-up.  So we are looking for short plays to defend ourselves until we are sure what we have here is more than the proverbial "dead cat bounce" off our 33% retrace (which I discussed in Monday's post).  As I mentioned in yesterday's post, our upper targets to break the dreaded head and shoulders pattern are:  Dow 8,500, S&P 930, Nasdaq 1,825, NYSE 6,000 and Russell 510.  We're making good progress but nothing would be worse than failing this breakout and confirming the downward pattern so it will still be a tough week to get through, especially with todays manufacturing data, which we are concerned about.

David Fry INTC ChartI think David Fry summed it up for the skeptic's camp yesterday saying:

The AP headline today read: “Goldman Sachs’ $2.7B profit shows the firm’s prowess.” Good Grief! You have to hand it to Da Boyz, they know how to bedazzle Main Street. Anyone with a HAL 9000, their bad debts taken off their books, billions in public money to trade and most of their competitors (Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros.) eliminated


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$5,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Day 6 – $5,629!

We had a pretty good week with our new virtual portfolio.

The goal of the $5,000 virtual portfolio is to play around the volatility of earnings and make no mistake, it's a high-risk way to trade $5,000 and is meant to be a small portion of a large virtual portfolio – not something you would want to do with your only $5,000.  Of course the usual disclaimer is, this is a virtual portfolio, don't try this at home, trading is dangerous, always consult a professional financial adviser, etc, etc.  The idea is to practice different option strategies and we had a very exciting first week! 

Our first play was a spread on AA into earnings, initiated Monday at 1:10 with a buy of 3 $7.50 calls for $1.75 ($525), which we later covered with 3 $9 calls at $1.04 ($312).  That put us in the $1.50 spread for net .71 and we needed AA to finish next week at $9 to collect our full profit.  We bought back the $9 calls on Tuesday, ahead of earnings as they fell to .70 (up 33%), which lowered the basis on the remaining $7.50 calls to $1.42 and we got out of that one the next day as they spiked up to $2.50 in the morning after earnings.  Net profit $324. 

The second trade we entered was a DIA call play, the $84s, which we entered Tuesday at 10:30 at .70 (5 contracts) and subsequently doubled down at .50 (average basis .60) and again at .42 (average basis .51), sold 10, leaving us with 10 contracts at .51 and got out at .60 on Wednesday's "stick save" close.  Net profit $90. 

The third play of the week was SGR and we initiated that one Thursday at 11:12 with a straight spread of 4 $22.50 calls for $3.30, selling the $25 calls for $1.45 for a net entry of $1.85 on the $2.50 spread.  Earnings were a miss on SGR but we felt that the sell-off was an overreaction so we took out the $25 calls for .25 (82% profit), leaving us in the $22.50s for net $2.10 ($3.30 entry less the $1.10 profit on the $25 calls).  We hit our goal of $2.50 yesterday (7/14) and stopped out with a .40 gain although some hung on as the $22.50s flew all the way to
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Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off!

TGIF for sure, it seems like ending the week is the only way to stop the markets from dropping!

We failed to take back our weak bounce levels I laid out in yesterday's morning post as the Dow failed to hold 8,250 on a very brief spike past it, the S&P failed right at 888 in the morning and again in the afternoon (where we were able to use it as a "go short" indicator), the Nasdaq flirted with 1,750 all day and barely held it, the NYSE also failed 5,700 in the afternoon and gave us a good, bearish indicator while the Russell never came close to 488 and failed our critical 480 mark at the close.  As I've been saying all week, we really don't have to watch anything but the NYSE, which will test the critical 5,600 mark this morning and failing that level would be, in technical terms: BAD!

Oil ($62) and gold ($920) also failed our levels so there was nothing to be bullish about in yesterday's action.  We were in and out of DIA puts and calls, using S&P 880 as our inflection point and we took the money and ran on our AA calls (up $330, 78%) and DIA calls (up $45, 20%) as our first two completed plays in our $5,000 Virtual Portfolio, which will now be tracked under Seeking Alpha's "Stock Talk" feature as an experiment for non-members.  We did a day-trade as well in the $5KP on MCD, picking up the $55 calls at $1.65 for a quick ride to $2, adding another $175 (21%) to the kitty for the week.  Our only open trade in this hit and run virtual portfolio is SGR, where we are in the $22.50 calls for $3.30, selling the $25 calls for $1.45 for a net $1.85 entry on this bullish $2.50 vertical spread (4 contracts).  Earnings were a slight miss but we're not worried as the order backlog is fantastic and we'll be buying more if the after-hours sell-off holds into the morning. If this play comes through for us we'll be up about $800 in our first week and well on-track of our goal to double up over earnings season. 

It will be a shame to have to play the dark side but we're back to neutral now after covering our bullish plays with DIA puts as…
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Phil's Favorites

Senators Have a Choice: Convict Trump or Crown Him

 

Senators Have a Choice: Convict Trump or Crown Him

Courtesy of David Cay Johnston, DCReport Editor-in-Chief

Letting the President Get Away with Contempt of Congress Will Make the Legislative Branch as Irrelevant as the Roman Senate

The two articles of impeachment, which have drawn criticism as either too much or too little, strike me as cleverly drafted to put Senate Republicans in a most uncomfortable box.

The second article, obstruction of Congress, should be the tougher one for Senate Republicans. It flows from Donald Trump’s stonewalling the impeachment inquiry – no testimony, no documents.

On top of thi...



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Zero Hedge

Anti-Impeachment Democrat Jeff Van Drew Defects To GOP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Anti-impeachment Democratic Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New York has confirmed that he will switch parties and become a Republican, following a lengthy meeting with President Trump, according to Politico.

Van Drew is one of two Democrats who voted 'no' on opening the impeachment inquiry in the first place, and has been a vocal opponent of the effort, according to the repor...



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Chart School

Funds are getting ready to move out of USA

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Just before the hang over in the US equity markets, money will move and take their well earned gains else where. Here is why.

More from RTT Tv







Charts in video.

US is in the late cycle boom.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




US stock market with the US dollar, they have risen together from 2012. A change of this will force money to move.


Cli...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Euro Breakout In Play? Gold Bulls Sure Hope So!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The Euro has spent much of the past 2 years trading in a down-trend.

Though precious metals like Gold have fared well, this has been a bit of a headwind because it means that the US Dollar has remained firm.

Big Test In Play for the Euro

The Euro is testing a confluence of important support just as the downtrend is narrowing and ready for a “break”. That support includes lower falling wedge support and the Euro’s long term up-trend support line (see points 1 and 2).

If the Euro can succeed in breaking out at (3), it would be bullis...



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Insider Scoop

8 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRPT) stock surged 36.4% to $137.00 during Friday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $6.1 billion. The most recent rating by Janney Capital, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $175.00.
  • GlaxoSmithKline, Inc. (NYSE: GSK) shares surged 1.1% to $46.44. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $112.9 billion. According to the most recent rating by UBS, on November 21, the current rating is at Buy.
  • AstraZeneca, Inc. (NYSE: ...


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Digital Currencies

Three Men Arrested In NJ For Running Alleged $722 Million Crypto Ponzi Scheme

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Kollen Post via CoinTelegraph.com,

United States authorities in New Jersey have announced the arrest of three men who are accused of defrauding investors of over $722 million as part of alleged crypto ponzie scheme BitClub Network, per a Dec. 10 announcement from the Dep...



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Members' Corner

Tobin Smith: Foxocracy, the 2020 Election, and the Stock Market

 

For decades, Fox News has been spreading false information and hooking its audience into an angry, xenophobic and paranoid worldview. It's no mystery that Fox was instrumental in the 2016 election -- but how did it do it? How did it gain so much influence? Tobin Smith, CEO of Transformity Research, Inc. and former Fox News contributor and talk show host, explores this phenomenon and discusses Fox News’ emotionally predatory and partisan propaganda media strategies and tactics in his new book, ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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