Posts Tagged ‘SHAW’

Monday Market Movement – More Mario Momentum?

SPY DAILYSo, where's our stimulus?

Like good little Pavlovian dogs, we ran back into the markets last week when Mario Draghi rang the stimulus bill – increasing the $60Tn global markets by 5% – that's $3Tn of valuation added in 48 hours on the say-so of a former GS executive that has been put in charge of the European Central bank.  What could possibly go wrong with this scenario?  

If we can't trust the Investment Bankers who are taking over our Government, who can we trust?  So we'll assume that everything WILL be fixed this week and that the ECB, Fed, PBOC, BOE, BOJ and all the little Central Banksters will be pumping enough money into the system to justify a $3,000,000,000,000 increase in Global Equity prices – even though that means, at an average p/e of 15, that all this expected stimulus somehow drops an additional $200Bn to the bottom line of Big Business to justify the bump in valuation.

How many Dollars, Yen, Euros and Yuan do we have to give to Corporations to turn into $200Bn?  Well, if it's AMZN – the answer is $15Tn because it takes $50Bn in sales for AMZN to make $600M so figure 75x in sales to make 1x in earnings.  Why use AMZN?  Well because AMZN is almost 5% of the Nasdaq and it was their amazing run last week, on what rational people would consider poor earnings, that reversed the downtrend initiates by AAPL's (who are 15% of the Nasdaq) miss.  

AMZN WEEKLYI guess it's obvious why we're short AMZN (see Dave Fry's chart) but let's look at AAPL now, who are quite a bit more efficient at dropping Dollars to the bottom line.   Last year, AAPL took in $108Bn and made a profit of $26Bn – now THAT'S a good company!  So let's pretend that all companies are as good as AAPL and nowhere near as bad as AMZN at converting sales to profits.  

Now to get that additional $200Bn in Corporate Profits we only need about $800Bn in stimulus – assuming, of course, that money actually went to people who would spend it and not to Banksters who are still trying to back-fill multi-Trillion Dollar holes in their mark-to-fantasy balance sheets.  $800Bn is a doable number so let's pretend it is enough to justify a 5% bump in the market and now we know
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Emerging Markets Heading Down, Say Option Traders

Today’s tickers: EEM, POT, JAVA, BARE, SHAW, EWZ & KG

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the emerging markets exchange-traded fund are down 1.25% to $40.77 as we head toward the closing bell this afternoon. One bearish option trader exchanged 70,000 contracts in the January 2010 contract to protect against potential declines in the EEM through expiration. It appears the investor sold 35,000 calls at the January 41 strike for an average premium of 2.34 apiece. A chunk of 25,000 of those call options were spread against the purchase of 25,000 puts at the same January 41 strike for a premium of 3.00 per contract. The remaining 10,000 calls were spread against the purchase of 10,000 puts at the lower January 34 strike for 81 pennies each.

POT – Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. – The Canada-based potash producer rose more than 2.5% to $96.72 despite the overall bearish trend for the larger marketplace today. Plain-vanilla call buying suggests bullish investors are hoping POT’s shares continue on the up-and-up through the end of 2009. Approximately 4,000 calls were picked up at the November 100 strike for an average premium of 3.05 apiece. More optimistic individuals looked to the December 105 strike to get long of some 6,200 calls for about 3.02 per contract. Investors holding the December 105 strike calls are now positioned to accumulate profits if shares of POT rally at least 12% from the current price to breach the breakeven point at $108.02.

JAVA – Sun Microsystems, Inc. – Call-selling and put-buying in the January 2010 contract suggests investors expect JAVA’s shares could experience further declines before the year is over. Shares fell less than 0.5% to $9.13 during the trading session. It appears traders sold 4,500 calls at the in-the-money January 9.0 strike for 40 cents apiece. Perhaps these individuals are throwing in the towel on JAVA, salvaging whatever premium they can in case the stock falls below $9.00. Additional bearishness took place at the January 7.5 strike where investors bought more than 16,000 puts for an average premium of 16 cents per contract. Perhaps put-buyers are long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, downside protection from the put options will kick in if shares plummet 20% to $7.34 by expiration in January.

BARE – Bare Escentuals, Inc. – The cosmetics and skin care products company popped…
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Phil's Favorites

Stall Speed Economy

 

Stall Speed Economy

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.”


Painting by John Trumbull

If buttercups buzz’d after the bee,
If boats were on land, churches on sea,
If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows,
And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse,
If the mamas sold their babies
To the gypsies for half a crown;
If summer were spring and the other way ‘round,
...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Senate Republicans hint openness to working with Biden

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Republicans and Democrats have been unable to reach a consensus on the next stimulus package so far. Efforts by the White House to broker a deal haven’t resulted in success either. Thus, it looks unlikely that there will be any stimulus package before the November election. Similar signs are also being given by Senate Republicans, who are now hinting that they are open to striking a relief deal on coronavirus stimulus checks and other benefits with Joe Biden if he wins the presidential election in November.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

...

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Politics

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

 

Can Trump and McConnell get through the 4 steps to seat a Supreme Court justice in just 6 weeks?

A political battle is shaping up over the confirmation of the next Supreme Court Justice. Jose Luis Magana / AFP/Getty Images

By Caren Morrison, Georgia State University

United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Sept. 18, thrusting the acrimonious struggle for control of the Supreme Court into public view.

President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have already ...



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Zero Hedge

The Possible Limits Of China-Russia Cooperation

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

China and Russia's coordinated policies in foreign affairs and economic endeavors belie deep-seated fissures that might well prevent their current period of cooperation from evolving into a sustained alliance.

Despite China's planned participation in Russia's annual ...



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Chart School

Stocks are not done yet - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are a few times in history when a third party said this US paper (stocks, funds or bonds) is worthless.

Here is two.

1) 1965 Nixon Shock - The French said to US we do not want your paper dollars please pay us in gold. This of course led to the US going off the gold standard.

2) 2007 Bear Stern Fund Collapse - Investors said their funds collateral was worth much less than stated. This of course was the beginning of the great america housing bust of 2008.


In both cases it was stated .."look the Emperor is naked!"... (The Empe...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Breakout Triggers Buy Signal, Is $3000 Next Target?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

90-days ago this cup & handle pattern was discussed on See It Market when Gold was trading at 1717.

Fast-forward to today and Gold is up 15 percent. So it’s time for an update!

As we pointed out 90-days ago, the initial price magnet for the rally was the 261.8 Fibonacci extension that marked the 2011 high at (1).

That high has served as price resistance for nearly 9 years! …But it may be ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

 

Smoke from wildfires can worsen COVID-19 risk, putting firefighters in even more danger

Firefighters have battled camp crud before, but COVID-19 brings new risks with the potential for heart and lung damage. Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

By Luke Montrose, Boise State University

Two forces of nature are colliding in the western United States, and wildland firefighters are caught in the middle.

Emerging research suggests that ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies Rarely Used To Launder Money, Fiat Preferred

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via Decrypt.io,

Traditional channels continue to dominate the estimated $2 trillion global money laundering racket instead of cryptocurrencies, a report says.

In brief
  • Money laundering via cryptocurrencies is not a preferred tool for criminals, a report said...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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