And The Housing Fraud Continues
by ilene - May 31st, 2010 1:51 am
And The Housing Fraud Continues
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
From a report emailed to me over the weekend:
At the core of the foreclosure-prevention strategy is ignoring delinquencies. The percentage of older delinquent loans not yet in foreclosure is startling: 60% have at least 12 missed payments, and 35% have at least 18 missed payments. Add to this that three-fourths of delinquent loans are not in foreclosure, and we see that hidden losses well exceed those in the open.
Uh, they’re not being "ignored" – this is systemic and intentional fraud.
Remember, these loans are either being held by someone or securitized into some sort of package. When you have a loan that has no chance of "curing" (to cure a loan with 12 missed payments the borrower would have to come up with the 12 payments to bring it current!) that loan should be carried at its recovery value – that is, the value of the collateral that can be seized and sold, LESS the cost of eviction, remediation and resale.
Does anyone recall all the entries I’ve written about getting competent legal and accounting (tax) advice before proceeding with any sort of action regarding walking away, short sales or foreclosure? This same report says:
Many homeowners would be better off going into foreclosure, than doing a short sale. Short sales are fraught with potential legal, credit, and complicated tax issues. For example, someone who refinanced could owe capital gains taxes, which are not forgiven under federal and California temporary debt relief acts. In the foreclosure route, borrowers can live in their house mortgage-free for at least one year, maybe two years. Both short sales and foreclosures are reported as “account not paid in full”, and are equally damaging to a credit score. An exception exists if short sellers can negotiate better terms with their lender on recourse liens. The other possible advantage to a short sale is the ability to get a mortgage again in 2 years (Fannie, Freddie), rather than having to wait 3-5 years after a foreclosure.
Homeowners pursue short sales, unaware of the problems they are creating for themselves. Their agents never warned them of deficiencies, ruined credit, taxes due on forgiven debt, or legal consequences. Agents made flowery promises to get listings, and now the lawsuits are starting.
Oxen Group: Short Selling MEMC Electronic Materials
by David Ristau - July 6th, 2009 3:16 am
Oxen Group: Short Selling MEMC Electronic Materials
Courtesy of David of The Oxen Group
The Oxen Group recommends short selling MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR).
The solar chip sector may be in for a pullback tomorrow after news on Thursday and over the weekend that was bearish for the market. For one, LDK Solar gave bad news, [an earnings estimate] that fell below Wall St. expectations, estimating it would earn $215 – $225 million in revenue, while expectations were near $250 million. The company [increased its wafer shipment forecast], but it did not matter because the market sent the stock down over 5% on Thursday evening.
Then over the weekend, the Semiconductor Industry Association saw worldwide semiconductor sales up 5.4%. However, this was down over 23% from one year ago, which means there is still slow pick up in demand. The SIA is optimistic, but the market is still not completely turning up.
Furthermore, futures are down quite significantly tomorrow, with the Nasdaq down over 12 points. The reason one should short sell MEMC over LDK is that MMEC won’t drop as significantly as LDK right out of the gate. Therefore, there is more room for downward movement on WFR. Moreover, last week MEMC got a serious downgrade from JP Morgan, and it has moved up some from that point. That bearish fundamental should continue to threaten the share price. The company’s technicals show that it has more ability for downward movement and fast stochastics lower band is lower as well. Enter MEMC with a short sale and make some money on WFR’s downward movement.
Entry: Recommend buying from 10 – 25 minutes into session.
Exit: We recommend exiting after a 2-4% increase.
Stop Loss: We recommend a 3% stop loss on all buy in prices.
Upper Resistance: 16.75