Posts Tagged ‘shorting’

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

The markets appeared to like the calendar change from August to September today as all three major indexes close with +2.5% gains.  The S&P 500 closed the day at 1080, almost exactly on the 50 day MA.  This provides a good opportunity for DHH to replace a couple of SHORT positions that were closed to take profits while the market battled the support line at 1040. 

We are going to go another round with Suntrust Bank (STI) which already provided us with a +11.2% profit the first time around.  STI closed up 5% today at $23.65, earning it a spot on the SHORT list again.  Joining STI is bricks and mortar book seller, Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS), which closed today at $15.63, up +3.24%, after reporting a wider loss in the second quarter.  We are not sure what there is to like about widening losses. Ranking at #9 on the bottom of the Sabrient Outlook rankings provides plenty of reason to recommend adding BKS as a SHORT.

SELL SHORT STI – Again – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open. 

SELL SHORT BKS – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open.

These additions to the DHH virtual portfolio establish the tilt SHORT called for when the S&P 500 trades below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  

Screen shot 2010-09-01 at 9.06.38 PM

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge – Shorting HUSA, Again

Dark Horse Hedge – Shorting HUSA, Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Short Houston American Energy Corp, HUSA, $10.54 

We are going to re-enter our SHORT position in Houston American Energy Corp (HUSA) today. After shorting HUSA once, and covering last Friday before the earning’s bounce, we continue to believe the company is overvalued with a 327M market capitalization.  Sabrient has a hold rating on the stock. 

We wrote on July 1, 2010:

Houston American Energy Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. It primarily focuses on properties located in the United States. Last Monday (June 28), Sharesleuth.com published an article about HUSA expressing a number of concerns, including concerns about the management team’s history, questionable valuations on the Columbian estimates, and significant ties to people with prior SEC troubles. From Sharesleuth.com:

A SPECTACULAR DEAL?

The gains are linked largely to Houston American’s deal last October for a 25 percent interest in a Colombian oil prospect controlled by SK Energy Co., one of Asia’s biggest producers, refiners and marketers.

Houston American said in an investor presentation and subsequent Securities and Exchange Commission filing that the prospect was estimated to hold anywhere from 1 billion to 4 billion barrels of “recoverable reserves.”

The latter figure exceeds the official proved and probable reserves for all of Colombia, and stands as one of the most audacious claims by any of the energy companies operating in that country.

Houston American did not cite a consultant’s report or any other independent study as the source of its estimate. Nor did the company offer any qualifiers, such as the percentage of those reserves it has a reasonable certainty of producing…

So, for all the same reasons we shorted HUSA before, we are jumping back in. In addition, the 10-Q released on August 16 stated that the board of directors authorized bonuses of $637,500 and pay increases of 10% for senior management.  There were only three full time employees (one new employee just hired), according to Yahoo’s profile, so we take this to mean that either the CEO and the CFO or the CEO, the CFO and the other employee are all getting raises and bonuses.  Moreover, the company declared a 0.2% dividend which seems as premature as the bonuses. 


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You Could Now Be Arrested, In America, Just For Mentioning Europe’s Problems Over Dinner

You Could Now Be Arrested, In America, Just For Mentioning Europe’s Problems Over Dinner

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

georgesoros thinking tbi

You know a company/country/continent is in trouble when authorities start cracking down on short bets against it.

That’s why it’s so disturbing how much heat European currency and sovereign debt speculators are getting these days.

Even the U.S. has climbed aboard the bandwagon now.

Reports of a U.S. Justice Department investigation into Soros Fund Management, SAC, and Greenlight Capital short positions against the euro broke last week.

Yet now the speculator clamp down is evolving into something completely terrifying. Apparently, it could now be considered collusion if you simply share economic opinions over dinner:

WSJ:

The Journal article disclosed that the big euro bets were emerging amid gatherings including an "idea dinner" involving a number of hedge funds including SAC, Greenlight and Soros, where a trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity," or equal to, against the dollar on an exchange basis. The euro currently trades at $1.3609. One of the questions investigators are likely to examine is whether such information-sharing constitutes collusion, the people say.

At one such gathering, a dinner on Feb. 8 at a Manhattan restaurant, an SAC portfolio manager said he believed the euro could fall to a level equal to that of the dollar and urged other traders to "short," or bet against, the euro as his firm had, according to people at the dinner. The size of the bets against the euro is unclear.

In a research note issued to hundreds of hedge-fund clients shortly after the dinner, the research boutique that hosted the event summed up the SAC manager’s argument without mentioning his name. [But attributing it to an unnamed third party source, 'a presenter', which is standard practice]

One of the most dangerous misconceptions used to restrict economic freedoms is that opinions have more weight than fundamentals. Should we arrest people for threatening ‘economic stability’ if they argue against a particular stimulus bill or government and then collectively vote against it?

Because that’s all euro-shorts are doing. Whoever thinks that euro speculators are pushing the euro to unfairly low levels has an opportunity to vote against them any day of the week in the currency markets. So let’s not forget that a truly viable currency can carry the weight of open criticism, just like a strong nation or value-system can. Else traders better brush up on…
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Short Seller Fleckenstein: I’ll Start Selling AFTER Earnings Season

Short Seller Fleckenstein: I’ll Start Selling AFTER Earnings Season

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock

Bill Fleckenstein

Fleckenstein Capital’s twelve-year-old short-selling fund that shut down last December is planning to start hunting around again for opportunities.

Yet they’re waiting until after earnings season, and could even wait until early next year.

For Fleckenstein Capital, while 2010 could be a very rough year for the market, 2009 could end strong. Even these shorts don’t want to step in front of earnings season right now.

Bloomberg: Future bets against U.S. stocks will “almost certainly” include technology companies, especially semiconductor makers, Fleckenstein said.

“They’re going to report good earnings, but a lot of it is a function of double- and triple-ordering, so their businesses are going to look better than they really are,” he said.

In a Bloomberg TV interview, Bill Fleckenstein said he expects weak businesses to run into trouble next year, especially if rates start rising. Nevertheless it appears he wants to see the economy’s "less worse" trend come to an end before he takes action.

What does he favor in the meantime? Shares in gold related companies.

 


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Phil's Favorites

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Zero Hedge

"How Dare You?" - These Countries Are The Most Committed To Coal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The already ambitious global carbon emission reduction goals were dealt a significant blow this month as China, having recently pledged to end all future foreign coal power projects, announced that they would be further committing to domestic coal expansion - likely pushing back the year the country expects to reach peak emissions (currently 2030), referencing a n...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

 

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

Shutterstock/rzoze19

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream finance has reached another major milestone – and another record price. The cryptocurrency was trading at US$66,975 (£48,456) following the launch of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US w...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Politics

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

 

Steve Bannon faces criminal charges over Jan. 6 panel snub, setting up a showdown over executive privilege

Defiant or following Trump’s direction? John Lamparski/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Kirsten Carlson, Wayne State University

The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol is tasked with providing as full an account as possible of the attempted insurrection. But there is a problem: Not everyone is cooperating.

As of Oct. 14, 2021, Steve Bannon, a one-tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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