Posts Tagged ‘shorting’

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

The markets appeared to like the calendar change from August to September today as all three major indexes close with +2.5% gains.  The S&P 500 closed the day at 1080, almost exactly on the 50 day MA.  This provides a good opportunity for DHH to replace a couple of SHORT positions that were closed to take profits while the market battled the support line at 1040. 

We are going to go another round with Suntrust Bank (STI) which already provided us with a +11.2% profit the first time around.  STI closed up 5% today at $23.65, earning it a spot on the SHORT list again.  Joining STI is bricks and mortar book seller, Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS), which closed today at $15.63, up +3.24%, after reporting a wider loss in the second quarter.  We are not sure what there is to like about widening losses. Ranking at #9 on the bottom of the Sabrient Outlook rankings provides plenty of reason to recommend adding BKS as a SHORT.

SELL SHORT STI – Again – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open. 

SELL SHORT BKS – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open.

These additions to the DHH virtual portfolio establish the tilt SHORT called for when the S&P 500 trades below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  

Screen shot 2010-09-01 at 9.06.38 PM

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge – Shorting HUSA, Again

Dark Horse Hedge – Shorting HUSA, Again

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Short Houston American Energy Corp, HUSA, $10.54 

We are going to re-enter our SHORT position in Houston American Energy Corp (HUSA) today. After shorting HUSA once, and covering last Friday before the earning’s bounce, we continue to believe the company is overvalued with a 327M market capitalization.  Sabrient has a hold rating on the stock. 

We wrote on July 1, 2010:

Houston American Energy Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. It primarily focuses on properties located in the United States. Last Monday (June 28), Sharesleuth.com published an article about HUSA expressing a number of concerns, including concerns about the management team’s history, questionable valuations on the Columbian estimates, and significant ties to people with prior SEC troubles. From Sharesleuth.com:

A SPECTACULAR DEAL?

The gains are linked largely to Houston American’s deal last October for a 25 percent interest in a Colombian oil prospect controlled by SK Energy Co., one of Asia’s biggest producers, refiners and marketers.

Houston American said in an investor presentation and subsequent Securities and Exchange Commission filing that the prospect was estimated to hold anywhere from 1 billion to 4 billion barrels of “recoverable reserves.”

The latter figure exceeds the official proved and probable reserves for all of Colombia, and stands as one of the most audacious claims by any of the energy companies operating in that country.

Houston American did not cite a consultant’s report or any other independent study as the source of its estimate. Nor did the company offer any qualifiers, such as the percentage of those reserves it has a reasonable certainty of producing…

So, for all the same reasons we shorted HUSA before, we are jumping back in. In addition, the 10-Q released on August 16 stated that the board of directors authorized bonuses of $637,500 and pay increases of 10% for senior management.  There were only three full time employees (one new employee just hired), according to Yahoo’s profile, so we take this to mean that either the CEO and the CFO or the CEO, the CFO and the other employee are all getting raises and bonuses.  Moreover, the company declared a 0.2% dividend which seems as premature as the bonuses. 


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You Could Now Be Arrested, In America, Just For Mentioning Europe’s Problems Over Dinner

You Could Now Be Arrested, In America, Just For Mentioning Europe’s Problems Over Dinner

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

georgesoros thinking tbi

You know a company/country/continent is in trouble when authorities start cracking down on short bets against it.

That’s why it’s so disturbing how much heat European currency and sovereign debt speculators are getting these days.

Even the U.S. has climbed aboard the bandwagon now.

Reports of a U.S. Justice Department investigation into Soros Fund Management, SAC, and Greenlight Capital short positions against the euro broke last week.

Yet now the speculator clamp down is evolving into something completely terrifying. Apparently, it could now be considered collusion if you simply share economic opinions over dinner:

WSJ:

The Journal article disclosed that the big euro bets were emerging amid gatherings including an "idea dinner" involving a number of hedge funds including SAC, Greenlight and Soros, where a trader argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity," or equal to, against the dollar on an exchange basis. The euro currently trades at $1.3609. One of the questions investigators are likely to examine is whether such information-sharing constitutes collusion, the people say.

At one such gathering, a dinner on Feb. 8 at a Manhattan restaurant, an SAC portfolio manager said he believed the euro could fall to a level equal to that of the dollar and urged other traders to "short," or bet against, the euro as his firm had, according to people at the dinner. The size of the bets against the euro is unclear.

In a research note issued to hundreds of hedge-fund clients shortly after the dinner, the research boutique that hosted the event summed up the SAC manager’s argument without mentioning his name. [But attributing it to an unnamed third party source, 'a presenter', which is standard practice]

One of the most dangerous misconceptions used to restrict economic freedoms is that opinions have more weight than fundamentals. Should we arrest people for threatening ‘economic stability’ if they argue against a particular stimulus bill or government and then collectively vote against it?

Because that’s all euro-shorts are doing. Whoever thinks that euro speculators are pushing the euro to unfairly low levels has an opportunity to vote against them any day of the week in the currency markets. So let’s not forget that a truly viable currency can carry the weight of open criticism, just like a strong nation or value-system can. Else traders better brush up on…
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Short Seller Fleckenstein: I’ll Start Selling AFTER Earnings Season

Short Seller Fleckenstein: I’ll Start Selling AFTER Earnings Season

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock

Bill Fleckenstein

Fleckenstein Capital’s twelve-year-old short-selling fund that shut down last December is planning to start hunting around again for opportunities.

Yet they’re waiting until after earnings season, and could even wait until early next year.

For Fleckenstein Capital, while 2010 could be a very rough year for the market, 2009 could end strong. Even these shorts don’t want to step in front of earnings season right now.

Bloomberg: Future bets against U.S. stocks will “almost certainly” include technology companies, especially semiconductor makers, Fleckenstein said.

“They’re going to report good earnings, but a lot of it is a function of double- and triple-ordering, so their businesses are going to look better than they really are,” he said.

In a Bloomberg TV interview, Bill Fleckenstein said he expects weak businesses to run into trouble next year, especially if rates start rising. Nevertheless it appears he wants to see the economy’s "less worse" trend come to an end before he takes action.

What does he favor in the meantime? Shares in gold related companies.

 


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Zero Hedge

"These Numbers Are Ugly" - WTO Forecasts Collapse In World Trade, Recovery For 2021

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

"World trade is expected to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as the COVID 19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world," the WTO report said. 

The Geneva-based body does not see a recovery in global trade until 2021, and even then, the outcome of recovery is mainly dependent "on the duration of the outbreak and the effectiveness o...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Phil's Favorites

Striking Amazon, Instacart employees reveal how a basic economic principle could derail our ability to combat the coronavirus

 

Striking Amazon, Instacart employees reveal how a basic economic principle could derail our ability to combat the coronavirus

Samuel Diaz, a delivery worker for Amazon Prime, loads his vehicle with groceries from Whole Foods in Miami. AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Leigh Osofsky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

A series of recent protests by the workers preparing and delivering our essential foods and other goods highlights a key risk to our ability to combat the coronavirus.

Some employees at an Amazon warehouse and Instacart “shoppers” ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

In the rush to innovate for COVID-19 drugs, sound science is still essential

 

In the rush to innovate for COVID-19 drugs, sound science is still essential

Employees work on the production line of chloroquine phosphate, resumed after a 15-year break, in a pharmaceutical company in Nantong city in east China’s Jiangsu province Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020. Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Christopher Robertson, University of Arizona; Alison Bateman-House, ...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

Warmer weather may not hurt coronavirus

April 8, 2020 Update: The number of coronavirus cases in New York State has now topped the number in Italy. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said 779 people died of COVID-19 in the state in a single day, marking the highest one-day death total from the virus. More than 6,200 people have died of the virus in New York, which Cuomo said is double the number of people who died there in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Many experts have been counting on the warmer months providing some relief from the coronavirus. However, a National Academies of Sciences panel told the White House t...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Market Crash Reversal Patterns "Experiment" With History!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

S&P 500 Index versus “Inverted” 30 Year Yield “monthly” Chart

Stocks and treasury bond yields had a wild (and scary) month of March as the financial markets crashed to new lows.

In today’s chart, we highlight this by looking at long-term “monthly” chart of the S&P 500 Index versus an “inverted” 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Note that inverting charts offers a different perspective and reduces bias. For more on this, ...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.