Posts Tagged ‘slowdown’

July Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales “Mixed Bag”; Manufacturing Output Rises Led by Auto Sector

July Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales "Mixed Bag"; Manufacturing Output Rises Led by Auto Sector

Courtesy of Mish

Excluding autos and gas retail sales ran out of steam in July 2010. Please consider the SpendingPulse Report July Retail Sales Show Mixed Results.

After several months of sales slowdown, total retail sales have stabilized somewhat, although overall growth has slowed sharply since earlier this year. In fact, growth in July headline numbers was driven largely by an increase in spending on gasoline, which is why the ex-auto ex-gasoline number is a better barometer to measuring the underlying health in retail spending.

July’s growth rate excluding auto and gasoline leaves the three-month average year-to-year growth rate of retail sales at 1.0%, well below the 3.5% for the prior three months. The ex-auto year-over-year numbers tell a similar story of a shallow and stabilizing trough, with the unadjusted three-month average year-over-year growth rate slowing to 1.6% compared to the 6.5% average growth rate for the previous three months.

The first table above compares June and July 2010 vs. the same month in 2009.

The second table shows July 201o vs. June 2010 seasonally adjusted. For an alleged recovery, these are weak numbers.

Industrial Production up 1 Percent, Led by Autos

Inquiring minds are taking a look at the July Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report.

Industrial production rose 1.0 percent in July after having edged down 0.1 percent in June, and manufacturing output moved up 1.1 percent in July after having fallen 0.5 percent in June. A large contributor to the jump in manufacturing output in July was an increase of nearly 10 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts; even so, manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.6 percent.

The production of consumer goods moved up 1.1 percent, as the output of consumer durables jumped 4.9 percent: Production for all of its major components advanced. In addition to a gain of 8.8 percent in the output of automotive products, which was mainly due to a large increase in light truck assemblies, the indexes for home electronics and for miscellaneous goods increased 1.3 and 1.5 percent, respectively; the index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved up 0.5 percent.

Among components of consumer nondurables, the output of non-energy nondurables declined 0.2 percent, and the output of consumer energy products moved up


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Credit shrinkage will continue throughout the recession and into the recovery

Credit shrinkage will continue throughout the recession and into the recovery

credit crisisCourtesy of Reggie Middleton of Reggie Middleton’s BoomBustBlog.com

The credit bust will be long lasting, and will harshly effect companies without strong business models – which is a lot more companies than many think due to the fact that a credit bubble has kept so many on life support. See Marginal companies with marginal business models are going to crack for my take on this.

Last month’s BIS Annual Report states "Aggregate statistics show a sharp slowdown in the growth of credit to the private sector starting late in the first stage of the crisis." The delay in credit restriction was misleading to many and masks the full effect or credit restriction.  The time lag stemmed from 1) forced balance sheet expansion due to off-balance sheet vehicle re-intermediation; 2) draw down of existing credit lines at favorable conditions by borrowers (these favorable conditions, and as a matter of fact the actual credit lines, are no longer availabe). The mounting and prospective losses that I have detailed in The Re-Release of the Open Source Mortgage Default Model and Green Shoots are Being Fertilized by Brown Turds in the Mortgage Markets outline (just in residential real estate lending, notwithstanding all other classes of lending) just how much more restrictive credit can get.

This portends less growth and expansion in the future (as in through the end of the recession potentially well into the tepid recovery), not more. As all regular followers of this blog have come to realize, US equity prices have totally and completely detached from economic fundamentals, thus this reality has not been factored into prices. When it does (this is a matter of when, not if), signficant price compressions (read as "crash") may ensue. In the meantime, starting in the middle of next week, I will be offering subscribers illustrative examples of methods that I am employing to reduce directional risk, a risk which fundamental investors such as myself gladly consume in normal times.

July 27 WSJ:

Lending continues to slow as bankers and borrowers refrain from taking risks, in a bearish sign for the economy.

The total amount of loans held by 15 large U.S. banks shrank by 2.8% in the second quarter, and more than half of the loan volume in April and May came from refinancing…
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Phil's Favorites

Why Jack Dorsey's Square paid a record $39 billion for Afterpay

 

Why Jack Dorsey’s Square paid a record $39 billion for Afterpay

Courtesy of Lien Duong, Curtin University and Sonny Pham, Curtin University

The A$39 billion (US$29 billion) that Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s digital payments company Square is paying to acquire Australian upstart payments outfit Afterpay is the biggest takeover deal in Australian corporate history.

It surpasses the A$32 billion European commercial real estate giant Unibail-Rodamco agreed to pay for Frank Lowy’s Westfield Corporation in 2...



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Zero Hedge

Texas Judge Blocks Governor's Order Halting Transport Of Covid-Positive Illegals

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a short-term victory for the Biden administration, a federal judge in Texas blocked an executive order which restricts the transport of infected illegal immigrants on Tuesday, suggesting that the order itself would have the effect of "exacerbating the spread of COVID-19."

U.S. District Judge Kathleen Cardone of El Paso agreed with the Justice Department, which accused Governor Greg Abbott (R) of potentially worsening the spread of the virus - as impeding the transfer of undocumented migrants would prolong the ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 13 March 2021, 06:40:57 PM

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Comment: @crossbordercap Peak liquidity already evidence from our GLI momentum signal...has 6-9 month lead-time on markets and 15-20 months on economies



Date Found: Friday, 19 March 2021, 10:55:22 PM

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Comment: ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Americans Tend To Stick To Their Stance On COVID-19 Vaccines

 

Source: Bloomberg, via ZeroHedge

Courtesy of Felix Richter, Statista

As U.S. health officials and the Biden administration desperately try to kickstart the stalling rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in face of the highly contagious Delta variant, President Biden...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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