Posts Tagged ‘SLW’

Testy Tuesday – Dressing the Windows at our Bounce Lines

First, the big news:

EBAY has finally agreed to spin off PayPal and that's going to give us a nice boost in our Income Portfolio (which we fortunately just adjusted more aggressive yesterday) and EBAY has been on our Buy List (Members Only) since 5/20, when they were testing $50 and, as I said to our Members when I predicted an earnings beat in July:

Paypal, Paypal and Paypal.  They should beat the .68 expectations (.63 last year) and all of last year they traded in the $50s, so why should they be below it now when they are making $3 a year (p/e 16.7)?  Compared to the rest of the market, this thing is a real bargain!  

They beat by a penny and, as you can see from the chart, that was enough to kick them up 10% and we recently got a nice re-entry at $50, when we took advantage of the spike down to sell more 2016 $50 puts for $5.50 which were up 15% at $4.80 at yesterday's close – not bad for a month's work and they should be up 30% by the end of today!  

Today we will see an all-out effort to keep the markets afloat so the books on Q3 can be spun positive by the Banksters, who have Trillions of Dollars riding on the outcome.  

Of course, we KNOW that no Bankster would ever attempt to manipulate the Market, or LIBOR, or Currencies, or Ratings…  Well, not if they knew for a fact they would get caught AND the punishment was more than a slap on the wrist, anyway.  Thank goodness, that never happens.

As you can see from our Big Chart, the S&P came to a rest right on the 50 dma at 1,977 so that's the do or die line for the day while it's 4,495 on the Nasdaq.  On the Dow we want to see 17,100 taken back and the NYSE needs to hold 10,750 while the poor, beleagured Russell just needs to hold that 1,110 line.  Officially, our bounce lines remain:

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Which Way Wednesday – Breaking Out or Breaking Down?

Three out of five indexes look very good!  

The same can be said about a dog with three legs and no tail, I suppose.  So, the question is, is the market a dog in a nice sweater or whatever the metaphor would be for something where 3 healthy guys drag two dead guys around and win the race.  

Hmmm, I guess there is no metaphor for that – BECAUSE IT'S RIDICULOUS, isn't it?  A healthy market looks like a healthy market and this does NOT look like a healthy market.  

You can ignore Russia invading Ukraine, you can ignore China's exploding debt bubble, you can ignore collapsing German Investor Confidence, you can ignore Japanese Inflation, you can ignore all the stuff we already talked about in this morning's news alert – but that's not going to make it go away!  

SPY 5 MINUTEYes, we made new highs yesterday but look at the crap volume.  The volume on the Friday after Thanksgiving (half a day) was 55M on SPY, the volume on Dec 26th was 63M and New Year's Eve was 86M – that's how ridiculous yesterday's volume was.  

We're still in the pattern of the market rising on low volumes and selling off on high volume, which is simply the way the Banksters pump up their holdings into the opens and then dump them on what few retail suckers are participating into the closes.

You can hear their media puppets ramping up the rhetoric at the same time, wagging their fingers at the retail investors and telling them they are "missing" the rally.  Why weren't they saying that when the markets were 50% cheaper?  Why not when they were 25% cheaper?  No, only at a market top does the Corporate Media tell you to BUYBUYBUY because their masters already bought their fill and now they need someone to hold the bag.  Same as it ever was.  

[image]Check out the front page of Mr. Murdoch's Wall Street Journal, nothing about Russia and they spin the Administration's attempt to boost Housing as a positive when it's actually a reaction…
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Make Billion$ With StockTwits (and Win a Free Quarter!)

Billions!  

That's right, if you followed Philstockworld on Stocktwits this past month and followed our trade ideas, you could have made Billions of Dollars.  Not bad but that's only a tiny portion of what you get at PSW every day.  Needless to say, we've had a good month but it's no fun being right if nobody knows it so let's review a month of Tweets and also make it worth your while to send others to Our StockTwits Link and follow us there.  

For the month of July, every new follower will be entered in a random drawing and one will be selected to win a free 1-year subscription to the PSW Report – our twice-daily Email that gives you access to all of our non-Premium posts as well as Stock World Weekly.  If you are already a paying PSW subscriber and win this drawing, we will give you a 3-month extension of your Current Membership Level instead added to your current subscription.  

If you are a Member and your friends subscribe and tweet us your name – one of those named members will also be the winner of a 3-month extension of that member's current level.  The more friends you have, the better the chances to win!  

We're doing this because we need to build up our social networking presence so I've been tweeting more in June.  You can go to our StockTwits site and see all 45 Tweets posted since June 1st (there are many also before that) but I'm just going to review the ones that were less generic (we auto-tweet my posts) to give you an idea of what kind of value your friends can get out of this free service:

 

 Phil Davis 

 


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Friday Fantastic Futures Fueled Finish!

What?  Are you just waking up?  

We're done with our day already!  At 1:43 am the market finally finished a crash that gave us such a terrific entry opportunity that I sent out a special Alert to Members, which is very rare for the middle of the night so when they get one, they know something is up (and did you know you can configure you Email to make a special noise when you get a PSW Alert?).  We got a nice initial pop but then got stopped out as it retraced but we still had faith in the turn (and by that time, Members were on in chat) at 3 am so I decided to spread the word on Seeking Alpha, Stock Twits and Facebook and even Linked In (even tough we shorted that POS) – to make sure all my friends who follow me got a chance to participate in this major rally.

Those are the same places I posted our 12 Bullish Dow Trade Ideas on Wednesday that are going to be up so much today that you will throw up if you missed them (our Members never do!).  They are also the same places that I posted our LNKD short play (I thought it was fun irony posting a short play on LNKD using the Linked In site!) which went like this:  

$LNKD Aug $90/85 bear put spread at $3.40, selling the June $95 calls for $1.85 for net $1.55 on the $5 spread. Gotta love overpriced IPOs! 

LNKD is now trading at $68.27 and the June $95 calls are expiring worthless today while the Aug $90/85 bear put spread is now $4.45 for a 187% gain in 15 days and well on track to the full 222% potential gain but, at this point, we take the money and run because it's one thing to risk $1.55 to make $5 but quite another to risk $4.45 to make .55 – get it?  Even if you don't consider it to be a risky trade because LNKD is very unlikely to come back – there are still FAR better things we can do with $455 per contract  between now and August than make 10%!  

Wednesday's trades were much less complicated, they are just short puts on various
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Bears Take a Bite Out of Las Vegas Sands Corp. Options

Today’s tickers: LVS, JPM, WNR, PFE, SLW, PCLN & XLK

LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Options strategists are initiating trades on the operator of casino resorts that suggest LVS shares could pull back further off recent highs. One big player wary of bearish movement in the price of the underlying shares purchased a large-volume ratio put spread in the January 2011 contract. Las Vegas Sands’ shares started the session in the red, but recovered this afternoon, and are currently up 1.65% at $52.84 as of 3:20 pm in New York. The put player purchased 20,000 contracts at the January 2011 $52.5 strike for a premium of $5.50 each, and sold 40,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $45 strike at a premium of $2.21 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the bearish spread amounts to $1.08 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction is prepared to make money, or realize downside protection on a long position in the underlying shares, if LVS shares decline 2.7% from the current price of $52.84 to breach the effective breakeven point at $51.42 by January expiration. Maximum potential profits of $6.42 per contract are available to the trader if shares of the casino operator plunge 14.8% lower to settle at $45.00 at expiration. More than 216,000 option contracts have changed hands on LVS with 35 minutes remaining before the final bell. Options implied volatility on the stock is up 4.1% at 57.43%, the highest reading of IV since the end of July.

JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – Shares of the financial services firm fell 0.85% to $40.59 late in the trading session, but earlier today one cautiously optimistic investor initiated a delta neutral hedge using longer-dated put options in the June 2011 contract. It looks like the investor picked up…
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Phil's Favorites

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

 

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

Courtesy of Michael Head, University of Southampton

In the long dark tunnel that has been 2020, November stands out as the month that light appeared. Some might see it as a bright light, others as a faint light – but it is unmistakably a light.

On November 9, Pfizer announced the interim results of its candidate vaccine, showing it to be “more than 90% effective” in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in late-stage human trials. The news was greeted with joy.

A ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

 

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

Courtesy of Michael Head, University of Southampton

In the long dark tunnel that has been 2020, November stands out as the month that light appeared. Some might see it as a bright light, others as a faint light – but it is unmistakably a light.

On November 9, Pfizer announced the interim results of its candidate vaccine, showing it to be “more than 90% effective” in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in late-stage human trials. The news was greeted with joy.

A ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Bitcoin is testing its old all time high. Bitcoin is not alone as it is at the same party of all risk on trends. Abundant end of year liquidity, add the relief of finishing US elections will see the end of the buyers strike and gains should continue (just like 2016).

Bitcoin is on fourth types of charts held within readtheticker.com, each chart answers different questions.

Charts ...

Cycle charts shows off price and time cycles, with forecasts.


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Long term channels, with time and price targets.


Click f...



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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin's Gut Check: The Time Of Crisis As The Moment Of Truth

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Marc Bernegger via CoinTelegraph.com,

If Bitcoin weathers the current financial storm, our monetary system will be on the brink of dramatic changes or even a revolution.

...



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Politics

Profiles in Cowardice

 

Profiles in Cowardice

Most elected Republicans in Washington are failing the test by refusing to stand up to Trump. Their cowardice is one of the worst betrayals of public trust in the history of our republic.

By Robert Reich writing at Common Dreams

American democracy will continue to be endangered by House and Senate Republicans who lack the moral courage to do what’s right. (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Financial r...



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ValueWalk

Joel Greenblatt Talks Immigration With ValueWalk

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Legendary value investor Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Asset Management has a new book coming out. His book is entitled Common Sense, and it focuses on several big policies, including immigration, education and banking regulations. He sat down with ValueWalk to talk about some of the issues in his new book and about value investing.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

This interview has been broken down into multiple parts. Click her...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.