Posts Tagged ‘SLX’

Weekend Wipe-Out, the Second Wave!

Another week another 100 points lower

Yep, that's all it was, we lost all of 100 points more than last week, when we fell from 10,725 to 10,172 (553 points) and this week we dropped from Friday's Dow close of 10,172 all the way down to 10,067 yet you would think the world had come to an end to hear the media and the traders freaking out.  I'm not going to try to explain it, I can't.  Maybe it's because going into last week we were very bearish but, starting on the 22nd, we let ourselves finally get a little more bullish AND THE MARKET BETRAYED US!

How could the market not zoom right back up?  It always zooms right back up, doesn't it?  As I said a week ago Friday: "Boy, when sentiment shifts – it REALLY shifts!"  My closing comment on Friday the 22nd was "Back to cash but leaving disaster hedges, which are looking great now as this is shaping up to be some disaster" and our weekend "Global Chart Review" showed us to be at some very key inflection points, letting us go well prepared into this week: 

Manic Monday Market Movement

My Jets lost on Sunday so I was not in the best of moods on Monday.  My outlook that morning was: "We still have our disaster hedges in case things get worse but, on the whole, we’re expecting a 1% bounce in the very least off our 5% lines (anything less will be a bad sign)."  We were pretty much at the 5% rule on Friday's close so we focused on the bounce we wanted to achieve in order to get more bullish. 

I noted that the levels we were looking for were not exactly 1% retraces (see post for reasons) and our target retraces were:  Dow 10,300, S&P 1,105, Nasdaq 2,225, NYSE 7,100 and Russell 625.  What were the highs for the week on those indexes?  Dow 10,310 (+10), S&P 1,103 (-2), Nasdaq 2,227 (+2), NYSE 7,098 (-2) and Russell 621 (-4).  So that's a net of +4 points out of  21,355 points worth of predictions on the retrace, accuracy to within .019% - not a bad showing for our patented 5% rule.     

Please, under NO circumstances subscribe to our daily newsletter, where you would have this kind of information every morning and…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – 10,000 or Bust!

I think I was right on the money last week when I said:

The bar for corporate earnings is still set at very easy to beat levels yet, like this limbo-playing child, when they announce their beats of very low expectations we’re going to get all excited and tell them how great they are doing.  The problem is, these are not kids who we hope may grow up one day to be President or CEOs of major companies. these ARE CEOs of major companies and they are being paid top salaries for top performance and we, the stock purchasing public, are paying top dollar for what should be SPECTACULAR performance, not beating 75% off last year’s earnings by a penny! 

In that post, I rattled off a list of stocks that seemed overpriced to me: AMZN, BIDU, AM, PALM, NFLX, PCLN, URBN, UHS, CERN, CREE, GMCR, CY, SWM, TRLG, BKE and you would have had a fabulous week just shorting those stocks as only NFLX, URBN and CREE stayed positive.  Now most newsletter writers would quit right there and make a giant ad saying they were 12 for 15 on the week but, as our members know, THAT'S NO BIG DEAL AT PSW!  I'm just going to remind members that they can refer friends to FREE advice like that in our trial newsletter and earn 20% or more off their subscriptions for doing it. 

Picking stocks is easy but a few percent here and a few percent there isn't much fun is it?  On that list, the two we attacked were AMZN and BIDU, both of which ran (in our opinion) way too high AND had very liquid and very overpriced call options that we could sell to collect premiums.  AMZN is a staple short in our $100K Virtual Portfolio and we had set up BIDU the week before, selling Oct $420 calls for $8.30 and the Oct $430 calls for $7,20.  While both went higher on Monday, the fact that we had a plan for managing the trade kept us from panicking and, thankfully, Monday was the only day those positions gave us trouble and both finished the week worthless (100% profit for us). 

Adjusting our positions kept us busy this week as we STILL have a slightly bearish
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Thrill-Ride Thursday: Jobs, What Jobs?

Yesterday was very hard for us.

Our theoretically conservative $100,000 Virtual Portfolio dropped 6% in one day as we had a farily bearish position into options expiration that I stubbornly refused to adjust this week.  Surely, I thought, after running up 250 Dow points from Thursday, 10,000 would act as some kind of resistance?  We're also up a neat 500 points for the month of October so that's our 5% rule and to not get a 1% pullback, even in the most bullish of markets, is very rare indeed

So we stayed bearish yesterday and got crushed by the AMZN $90 calls we sold as well as UYG calls we sold and our PSQ calls we bought for protection got slaughtered as the Nasdaq flew up not 5% but 5.5% for the month and up 6.2% from it's October 2nd low.  While we are disappointed, we're not terribly concerned as we're only going to roll the calls to November anyway and I did promise the members that, if we hold our breakout levels for 2 closes, then I'll be shifting more bullish.  I've been trying to identify more bullish positions this week but our mix has still tended bearish as I'm just having so much trouble buying into this rally. 

In yesterday's Member Chat, my comments on the current situation was:

I do wish we were more bullish, this is a very smart group of people and we’re pretty bearish but so is the general investing public or there’d be volume to this rally.  I have a hard time ignoring the fact that 600,000 more people lost their jobs this week and, even if it’s "only" 500,000, I still think that’s not really a sign of a healty economy.  I think the REITs are off in fantasy land and I think so is the government, who cannot keep borrowing money at these low rates.  The dollar has dropped 25% of it’s value since March so the market is only 25% ahead of the currency fall which means a flight back to the dollar, which could happen very suddenly if an EU nation like Spain collapses, could send our market down as fast a 9/11. 

That being said, we have no choice but to follow the technicals and now that we can look at nice, easy support levels like Dow 10,000,


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Phil's Favorites

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

 

New DIY contact tracing app expands the fight against COVID-19, using the science of memory

This app is different. Designed by psychologists, the free and anonymous web-based app can help you remember who you came in contact with. Ani Ka via Getty Images

Courtesy of Jacqueline R. Evans, Florida International University; Christian Meissner, Iowa State University; ...



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Zero Hedge

Restaurants Slashed Jobs Last Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Jonathan Maze of Restaurant Business

The restaurant industry lost 17,400 jobs in November, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Labor released on Friday.

It was the first monthly decline in the number of restaurant workers since April, suggesting that a renewed virus and state shutdowns of dine-in service are taking their toll.

The data is likely to increase pressure on Congress and the president to approve a new stimulus package, one that includes specific aid to independent restaurants that have been devastated by the pandemic.

The industry had been adding jobs at a rapid clip since May, as restaurants reopened dining rooms and expanded while consumers grew more comfortable with dining out. But it remains far below its pre-pande...



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ValueWalk

Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

First on CNBC: CNBC Transcript: National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow Speaks with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” today on the November jobs report.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow Weighs In On The November Jobs Report

CARL QUINTANILLA: The director of the National Economic Council will talk about the November jobs’ number this morning. Larry, good morning. Happy Friday, good to have you back.

LARRY KUDLOW: Thank you. Hello folks, how are...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Is The US Dollar About To Reach A Melting Point?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s been 20 years since the last major peak in the US Dollar. Could the greenback’s latest turn lower confirm another peak?

Today’s chart takes a macro view of the US Dollar Index and highlights the long-term down-trend at each point (1). As you can see, the buck is on a topsy turvy ride, bouncing up and down within this down-trend.

The latest bottom formed after the financial crisis and has seen the US Dollar trade within a 9 year up-trend channel marked by each (2). This gave bulls some confidence that the US Dollar may have formed a long-term bottomȂ...



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Politics

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

 

Ignoring Warnings His Election Lies Could Get People Killed, Trump Posts 46-Minute Rant Full of 'Unhinged' Falsehoods

"Georgia elections director yesterday: Trump's rhetoric is going to get people killed. Trump today: here's 46 minutes of unhinged conspiracy theories."

Courtesy of Jake Johnson, Common Dreams

Activists march through the city of Detroit on November 7, 2020 to denounce President Donald Trump's false claims of voter fraud. (Photo: Adam J. Dewey/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Just days...



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Chart School

Gold Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold swing trade is due, lets review some charts to see if it is a viable move.

The seasonal period of gold is now upon us, gold should advance for the next 3 months.

Gold Gann Angle Chart ...



Gold Channel Chart .. close up!



 

Gold Channel Chart
 


Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Ang...



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Digital Currencies

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

 

Five Reasons Why Bitcoin is Going Up

Courtesy of 

Call it the “Respectability Rally”…

A few reasons for Bitcoin’s return to the record highs. It’s about $18,500 as of this writing, matching the previous highs from 2017’s original explosion.

Reason one: It’s going up because it’s going up. Don’t scoff, this is the reason most things in the markets happen and then the explanations are called for afterwards. I’m in financial television, I have literally watched this process occur in real-time. The more something moves in a given direction, the more peop...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.