Posts Tagged ‘SM’

Options See Little Hope For Near-Term Dreamworks Rally

Today’s tickers: DWA, GPS, SM & ACHN

DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc. – The creator of family-favorite feature films such as the Shrek movies and more recently, Puss in Boots, popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after a large block of call options changed hands in the December contract. It looks like the investor responsible for the transaction may be writing the calls, perhaps in the expectation that shares in Dreamworks Animation are unlikely to increase much from their current level. Shares in DWA currently trade 0.90% lower on the day at $17.24 as of 12:45 PM in New York. The investor appears to have sold 6,000 calls outright at the Dec. $17.5 strike for a premium of $0.75 per contract. The trader walks away with the full amount of premium in hand, a total of around $450,000, as long as shares in Dreamworks settle below $17.50 at expiration next month. While the calls do not appear to be tied to any simultaneous transaction in the underlying stock, it is possible the investor is already long the stock and selling covered calls. However, if the trader is naked short the call options, he could face potentially devastating losses in the event that shares spike higher in the next four weeks. In the latter scenario, the investor starts losing money on the position if shares rally 5.9% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $18.25 at expiration.

GPS - The Gap, Inc. – Shares in the operator of the Gap and Banana Republic fell 3.6% to $18.56 on Friday following the San Francisco, California-based company’s third-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Thursday. The largest U.S. clothing retailer earned $0.38 a share in the quarter, which beat average analyst expectations of $0.36 a share, however, the company reported sales of $3.58 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $3.59 billion. One bearish options trader appears to be positioning for the price of the underlying to continue to head south for the winter. It looks like the investor purchased a 1,500-lot Dec. $15/$18 put spread for an average net premium of $0.53 per contract. The strategist may profit at expiration in the event that GPS shares decline another 5.9% to breach the average breakeven price of $17.47. Maximum potential profits of $2.47 per contract are available to the trader should shares in Gap, Inc. drop another 19.2% to trade…
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Retail-Bear Initiates Put ‘Fly On XRT

 Today’s tickers: XRT, SM, AMD, MEE, EXPE, CTV & MYL

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Pessimism on the retail ETF took the form of a put butterfly spread today, suggesting one strategist is prepared for the price of the underlying fund to decline by December expiration. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are up 0.95% this afternoon to stand at $43.75 as of 3:10 p.m. in New York trading. The XRT’s shares are higher today following reports that economists increased estimates for consumer purchases in the third quarter after retail sales rose more than expected in September. But, nearly all of the activity in XRT options took place in puts and implies a bearish slant on the fund today. The butterfly spread involved the purchase of 5,600 puts at the December $43 strike at a premium of $1.45 each [wing 1], the sale of 11,200 puts at the December $39 strike for a premium of $0.47 per contract [body], and the purchase of 5,600 puts at the lower December $35 strike at a premium of $0.19 apiece [wing 2]. Net premium paid to initiate the bearish spread amounts to $0.70 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money if shares of the XRT fall 3.3% from the current price of $43.75 to breach the effective breakeven point at $42.30 by expiration day in December. Maximum potential profits of $3.30 per contract are available to the trader if the price of the underlying fund declines 10.85% to settle at $39.00 at expiration. The investor paid $0.70 per contract, but stands prepared to gain more than 4.7 times that amount, or $3.30 per contract, if the transaction comes good by December expiration.

SM - SM Energy Co. – Shares of the U.S. producer of oil and natural gas rose 4.05% today to $42.34 as of 3:25 p.m. The current rally may be an extension of gains realized last week on news the…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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Mylan Rebounds After FDA Report Signals All Clear

Today’s tickers: MYL, MU, ACAD, PAAS, PALM, KLAC, LDK, OIH & SM

MYL – The global pharmaceutical manufacturer released the final findings of an FDA investigation review of its Morgantown W Va. manufacturing plant, which came under the microscope following a local newspaper’s scathing report alleging health and safety wrong doings. The FDA found nothing wrong with the operations, much to the pleasure of Mylan shareholders as new investors sent its shares higher by 3.8% to $14.12. Mylan’s valuation now stands above the point it was trading at the day prior to the story. Shares fell from $13.93 to $11.66 on the report prompting investors to seek the safety of protective puts. Investors today are taking a different take and have scooped up almost 10,000 bullish call options expiring in September granting rights to buy shares at a fixed $15 per share. The number of open positions at that strike as of Wednesday evening was 8,576 contracts. Investors paying 55 cents for calls are predicting a break to a fresh 52-week high for Mylan’s shares indicating a rally by as much as 10% within a month. Around four times the number of calls traded today compared to puts. – Mylan Inc.

MU – The demand for call options on the manufacturer of flash memory products far outweighed that of calls as investor activity drove the call-to-put ratio up to more than 25-to-1. The call option feeding-frenzy was likely induced by the more than 3.5% rally in shares of MU to $7.00. About 1,000 calls were picked up at the nearer-term September 8.0 strike price for an average premium of 15 cents apiece. Bullishness spread to the October contract where traders splurged on 5,600 now at-the-money October 7.0 strike calls for an average premium of 66 cents each. Finally, traders got long of some 7,500 call options at the higher October 8.0 strike for about 40 cents per contract. A 20% increase over the current price per share by expiration, would allow investors long the October 8.0 strike calls to begin to accumulate profits above the breakeven point at $8.40. – Micron Technology, Inc.

ACAD – Shares of the biopharmaceutical company have soared upwards of 17.5% during the trading session and currently stand at $6.23. ACAD appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a long butterfly spread in the September contract. The trader constructed the
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Phil's Favorites

Can artisanal weed compete with 'Big Marijuana'?

 

Can artisanal weed compete with 'Big Marijuana'?

Perhaps one day Humboldt pot will be as famous as Bordeaux wine. AP Photo/Richard Vogel

Courtesy of Ryan Stoa, Concordia University School of Law

You’ve heard of Big Pharma and Big Tobacco. How about Big Marijuana?

The drug’s growing legalization is raising concerns among small-scale marijuana farmers and retailers that the corporatization of weed may be right around the corner. ...



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Zero Hedge

PG&E Plummets After Drawing Down Billions On Its Revolvers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two days after California utilities PG&E and Edison crashed, losing a third of their market cap in 48 hours amid investor fears over their exposure to the devastating California fires which are still raging, moments ago PG&E stock tumbled over 20% in premarket trading after the company disclosed it has fully drawn down its revolving credit facilities, in anticipation of soaring liquidity needs.

In an 8-K filing this morning, PG&E and its subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electri...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Correction Lingers As 800 Pound Resistance Levels Hold

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Key stock market indices continue to struggle beneath 800-pound Fibonacci extension levels (resistance).

In today’s “6-pack” chart, we illustrate these key bull/bear lines for investors – see below. The Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 are all experiencing weakness and selling pressure at long-term Fibonacci extension levels each at (1).

But the overhead resistance spreads to other key sectors like the Banks and Semiconductors. The Banks are experiencing weakness at the 2007 highs at (2) and the Semiconductors are experiencing weakness at the 2000 highs at (3).

Expect market weakness (or consolidation) to continue until these stock indexes and key market sectors breakout above resistance. Stay tuned!

6-Pack of Stock Market Indices –...



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Insider Scoop

8 Stocks To Watch For November 14, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

  • Wall Street expects Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) to report quarterly earnings at $0.14 per share on revenue of $5.41 billion before the opening bell. Macy's shares gained 0.59 percent to $36.00 in after-hours trading.
  • Analysts are expecting Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO...


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Members' Corner

NY Times: OPERATION INFEKTION

 

This is a three-part Opinion Video Series from NY Times about Russia’s meddling in the United States’ elections as part of its "decades-long campaign to tear the West apart." This is not fake news. Read more about the series here.

OPERATION INFEKTION

RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: FROM COLD WAR TO KANYE

By Adam B. Ellick and Adam Westbrook

EPISODE 1

MEE...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Nov 11, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

This past week was saw another positive move up by bulls – especially in the Dow and S&P 500; the NASDAQ was not quite as enthusiastic.   Wednesday’s rally was on the legs of an election that was seen as market friendly or at least not as bad as it could have been.   Essentially – paying people a lot of money to get nothing done the next 2 years – woo hoo!

The market is interpreting Wedneday’s result as insuring that “no big things will get done,” in Washington between now and 2020, Craig Birk, chief investment officer at Personal Capital told MarketWatch. “The market appreciates the relative certainty of the slow legislative agenda.” he said.

“As President Trump plans his 2020 reelection campaign, a gridlocked Congress is unlik...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern - but it may be a price worth paying

 

Bitcoin's high energy consumption is a concern – but it may be a price worth paying

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Steven Huckle, University of Sussex

Bitcoin recently turned ten years old. In that time, it has proved revolutionary because it ignores the need for modern money’s institutions to verify payments. Instead, Bitcoin relies on cryptographic techniques to prove identity and authenticity.

However, the price to pay for all of this innovation is a high carbon footprint, created by Bitc...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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