Posts Tagged ‘SM’

Options See Little Hope For Near-Term Dreamworks Rally

Today’s tickers: DWA, GPS, SM & ACHN

DWA - Dreamworks Animation SKG, Inc. – The creator of family-favorite feature films such as the Shrek movies and more recently, Puss in Boots, popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after a large block of call options changed hands in the December contract. It looks like the investor responsible for the transaction may be writing the calls, perhaps in the expectation that shares in Dreamworks Animation are unlikely to increase much from their current level. Shares in DWA currently trade 0.90% lower on the day at $17.24 as of 12:45 PM in New York. The investor appears to have sold 6,000 calls outright at the Dec. $17.5 strike for a premium of $0.75 per contract. The trader walks away with the full amount of premium in hand, a total of around $450,000, as long as shares in Dreamworks settle below $17.50 at expiration next month. While the calls do not appear to be tied to any simultaneous transaction in the underlying stock, it is possible the investor is already long the stock and selling covered calls. However, if the trader is naked short the call options, he could face potentially devastating losses in the event that shares spike higher in the next four weeks. In the latter scenario, the investor starts losing money on the position if shares rally 5.9% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $18.25 at expiration.

GPS - The Gap, Inc. – Shares in the operator of the Gap and Banana Republic fell 3.6% to $18.56 on Friday following the San Francisco, California-based company’s third-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Thursday. The largest U.S. clothing retailer earned $0.38 a share in the quarter, which beat average analyst expectations of $0.36 a share, however, the company reported sales of $3.58 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $3.59 billion. One bearish options trader appears to be positioning for the price of the underlying to continue to head south for the winter. It looks like the investor purchased a 1,500-lot Dec. $15/$18 put spread for an average net premium of $0.53 per contract. The strategist may profit at expiration in the event that GPS shares decline another 5.9% to breach the average breakeven price of $17.47. Maximum potential profits of $2.47 per contract are available to the trader should shares in Gap, Inc. drop another 19.2% to trade…
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Retail-Bear Initiates Put ‘Fly On XRT

 Today’s tickers: XRT, SM, AMD, MEE, EXPE, CTV & MYL

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Pessimism on the retail ETF took the form of a put butterfly spread today, suggesting one strategist is prepared for the price of the underlying fund to decline by December expiration. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are up 0.95% this afternoon to stand at $43.75 as of 3:10 p.m. in New York trading. The XRT’s shares are higher today following reports that economists increased estimates for consumer purchases in the third quarter after retail sales rose more than expected in September. But, nearly all of the activity in XRT options took place in puts and implies a bearish slant on the fund today. The butterfly spread involved the purchase of 5,600 puts at the December $43 strike at a premium of $1.45 each [wing 1], the sale of 11,200 puts at the December $39 strike for a premium of $0.47 per contract [body], and the purchase of 5,600 puts at the lower December $35 strike at a premium of $0.19 apiece [wing 2]. Net premium paid to initiate the bearish spread amounts to $0.70 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money if shares of the XRT fall 3.3% from the current price of $43.75 to breach the effective breakeven point at $42.30 by expiration day in December. Maximum potential profits of $3.30 per contract are available to the trader if the price of the underlying fund declines 10.85% to settle at $39.00 at expiration. The investor paid $0.70 per contract, but stands prepared to gain more than 4.7 times that amount, or $3.30 per contract, if the transaction comes good by December expiration.

SM - SM Energy Co. – Shares of the U.S. producer of oil and natural gas rose 4.05% today to $42.34 as of 3:25 p.m. The current rally may be an extension of gains realized last week on news the…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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Mylan Rebounds After FDA Report Signals All Clear

Today’s tickers: MYL, MU, ACAD, PAAS, PALM, KLAC, LDK, OIH & SM

MYL – The global pharmaceutical manufacturer released the final findings of an FDA investigation review of its Morgantown W Va. manufacturing plant, which came under the microscope following a local newspaper’s scathing report alleging health and safety wrong doings. The FDA found nothing wrong with the operations, much to the pleasure of Mylan shareholders as new investors sent its shares higher by 3.8% to $14.12. Mylan’s valuation now stands above the point it was trading at the day prior to the story. Shares fell from $13.93 to $11.66 on the report prompting investors to seek the safety of protective puts. Investors today are taking a different take and have scooped up almost 10,000 bullish call options expiring in September granting rights to buy shares at a fixed $15 per share. The number of open positions at that strike as of Wednesday evening was 8,576 contracts. Investors paying 55 cents for calls are predicting a break to a fresh 52-week high for Mylan’s shares indicating a rally by as much as 10% within a month. Around four times the number of calls traded today compared to puts. – Mylan Inc.

MU – The demand for call options on the manufacturer of flash memory products far outweighed that of calls as investor activity drove the call-to-put ratio up to more than 25-to-1. The call option feeding-frenzy was likely induced by the more than 3.5% rally in shares of MU to $7.00. About 1,000 calls were picked up at the nearer-term September 8.0 strike price for an average premium of 15 cents apiece. Bullishness spread to the October contract where traders splurged on 5,600 now at-the-money October 7.0 strike calls for an average premium of 66 cents each. Finally, traders got long of some 7,500 call options at the higher October 8.0 strike for about 40 cents per contract. A 20% increase over the current price per share by expiration, would allow investors long the October 8.0 strike calls to begin to accumulate profits above the breakeven point at $8.40. – Micron Technology, Inc.

ACAD – Shares of the biopharmaceutical company have soared upwards of 17.5% during the trading session and currently stand at $6.23. ACAD appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a long butterfly spread in the September contract. The trader constructed the
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Phil's Favorites

The Death Of Retail Is The Birth of Retail - Part 3...A Post Covid World... And More Gamestops?

 

The Death Of Retail Is The Birth of Retail – Part 3…A Post Covid World… And More Gamestops?

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Back in 2016 I wrote my first ‘Death of Retail Is The Birth of Retail‘ post and it had some good links and thoughts. I concluded to stay long $aapl, $amzn, $shop and $pypl. That was a good idea and I still own Apple, Amazon and Shopify, but I sold Paypal too early last year.

...



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ValueWalk

A Mixed Bag Of Mega-Cap Financial Firms' Earnings

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on the earnings of mega-cap financial firms and today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Investors Remain Eager To Buy The Dip

Following Friday’s deterioration, today’s bounce in stocks was crucial from a short-term perspective. With the busy political and earnings calendars in mind, today’s relatively low-volume rally might prove temporary, but it once again confirmed that investors remain eager to buy the dip thanks to the bullish long-term outlook.

The main sectors continued to diverge substantially today, with especially the after...



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Zero Hedge

Options Positioning Collapse Sparks "Potential For High Volatility"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

As we detailed last week, Friday's very large options expiration sparked a ~50% reduction in single stock gamma, leaving markets vulnerable to short-term volatility.

As SpotGamma warned, the  markets were entering a period with the potential for high volatility:

This creates volatility because as large options positions expired, are closed and...



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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Chart School

Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and 'this time was different' worked, until it didn't.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D un...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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