Posts Tagged ‘SP500 Faces Critical Resistance’

SP500 Faces Critical Resistance as Jobs Report Looms

SP500 Faces Critical Resistance as Jobs Report Looms

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to do a quick update on the broader technical structure of the S&P 500 in advance of Friday morning’s potentially market moving “Jobs” report.  Let’s take a look:

SP500 faces critical resistance
(Click for Full-Size Image)

The blue horizontal line reflects the resistance at the 1,007 level from the November 2008 highs.

The red Fibonacci lines are drawn from the 1,576 high of 2007 to the 666 low of 2009 and we see the 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% Fibonacci retracements to the upside of the entire bear market so far.

The important levels to note in this chart – from a technical perspective – are the 1,007 high (which price has not overcome yet) and the 1,014 high (38.2% Fibonacci level).  Also, bearish candles seem to be forming at these confluence resistance levels.

It’s important to note again that the July “Jobs” (Employment) Report will be released at 8:30am EST, an hour before market open.  A better than expected result will likely blow price through these technical levels, while an in-line or weaker than expected number is likely to produce a downward inflection off these levels – locking in technical resistance.

There’s a low-risk (tight stop), high potential reward trade that can be made off current levels particularly if we have a weak open or negative price action stemming from the report.

According to Bloomberg.com’s Economic Calendar, the general consensus is for a loss of 300,000 jobs (the consensus range is from a loss of anywhere from 190,000 to 375,000 jobs) with the unemployment rate rising to 9.7% (but could range from 9.5% to 9.8%).  These are the parameters to watch for unexpected surprises.

If it were as easy as looking at a chart, drawing in lines of expected resistance, and then watching price inflect down simply off these levels, we’d all be rich.  We deal in probabilities and structure, and are at a known level of expected resistance.

Let’s see how the Jobs report will affect the dominant technical structure in play.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
 


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Phil's Favorites

What Selloff?

 

What Selloff?

Courtesy of , at The Reformed Broker, originally posted on January 25, 22

Retail traders panicked yesterday. Not all, obviously, but they dumped their shares as a group. Here’s Bloomberg:

In a spasm of panicked selling early Monday, retail investors offloaded a net $1.36 billion worth of stock by noon, most of it in the first hour, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Peng Cheng. By his estimate, s...



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Politics

It's just a 'panic attack' - Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

 

It’s just a ‘panic attack’ – Russian media blames US for escalating Ukraine crisis

A live broadcast of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking is shown on Dec. 23, 2021, from a media control room in Russia. Eric Romanenko/TASS via Getty Images

Courtesy of Cynthia Hooper, College of the Holy Cross

As Western news outlets warn of a “countdow...



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ValueWalk

Bitcoin's Major Topping Pattern is Now Complete

By Louis Navellier. Originally published at ValueWalk.

For weekend reading, Louis Navellier offers the following commentary:

Q4 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

A Head And Shoulders Top For Bitcoin

Two months ago, I saw a euphoric climax in bitcoin, which I didn’t like. The futures ETF had just launched, and they were running those commercials starring Matt Damon on CNBC for crypto.com invoking Fortuna,...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Lumber Price Peak Would Raise Concerns For Equities!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The supply chain has dealt with several issues over the past couple of years, as consumers and businesses have been forced to navigate a tricky “COVID” landscape.

Commodity prices (in general) have risen, while enduring some big swings.

Today we look at a commodity that plays an intricate role for consumers, and perhaps the equities market as well. Lumber. When lumber prices are high, new homes and buildings cost quite a bit more.

Above is a “weekly” chart of lumber prices. As you can see, there have been times when a lumber peak/bottom have be...



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Zero Hedge

Canadian 'Freedom Convoy' Receives First GoFundMe Payment After Temporary Halt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (Friday 0711ET): Organizers of the "Freedom Convoy" have "received confirmation that GoFundMe has released our first batch of funds" following reports Thursday, the c...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature's way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

 

Is the omicron variant Mother Nature’s way of vaccinating the masses and curbing the pandemic?

Preliminary research suggests that the omicron variant may potentially induce a robust immune response. Olga Siletskaya/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Prakash Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina and Mitzi Nagarkatti, University of South Carolina

In the short time since...



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Digital Currencies

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

 

Why do you need a Bitcoin ETF when they already made you one?

Courtesy of 

Chart via Piper Sandler’s new note on Coinbase. They don’t think it’s trading as a proxy for Bitcoin but I know it is. Here’s their take:

COIN shares have performed in-line with bitcoin since reaching an all-time closing high on 11/9/21. COIN shares and the price of bitcoin (which we use as a proxy for broader cryptocurrency pric...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!



The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.



The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.



Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, ...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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