Posts Tagged ‘SPX options’

Why do VIX Futures Remain High?

Why do VIX Futures Remain High?

Courtesy of Condor Options

For several weeks now in our Volatility Tracker we’ve noted the persistence of a premium in longer-dated VIX futures versus the front-month contract and especially the spot VIX. Historically, divergences like these have resolved in favor of the futures price rather than the spot VIX price, which has tended to correlate with a decline in the S&P 500.

Clearly, those tendencies haven’t held up in this case. The market has rallied relentlessly, VIX has continued its steady decline, and the relative premium in long-dated implied volatility has persisted even as it also declines in absolute terms. In other words, one might think of the spot VIX acting like a magnet, pulling down on the higher futures.

[Click on image for larger view]

This somewhat unusual inversion of the relationship between spot VIX and the VIX futures helps explain the downward slope of the term structure, and seems to confirm the strength of the recent rally. Even so, notice that the expectation remains for an increase in implied volatility this fall: October futures, currently just shy of 30, are still above even the long-term consensus “floor” around 28. As Larry McMillan remarks in a recent note:

Obviously, the S&P 500 Index option traders are seemingly reluctant to sell volatility for what they perceive could be a highly volatile market in the fall of this year. Conversely S&P 500 Index option buyers of those expiration months are seemingly willing to pay up for the options. This is what may be holding VIX futures prices up, even though VIX is low, and historical volatility of the S&P 500 Index is low. Are these option traders going to be correct? We do not know for sure, but it seems to be a consensus being placed by a lot of option traders.

vixNow, even if you think the options market will be proven right later this year, this doesn’t present a tradeable edge in itself.  After all, the reason those VIX futures remain higher is that traders are willing to pay for November and December SPX options at a higher implied volatility – so any portfolio insurance purchased now will already have this information priced in. It’s also worth mentioning that, all things considered, even a five point increase in implied index volatility isn’t necessarily a…
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Phil's Favorites

Fed Repos Have Plowed $6.6 Trillion to Wall Street in Four Months; That's 34% of Its Feeding Tube During Epic Financial Crash

Courtesy of Pam Martens

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve

According to the data made available on the public website of the New York Fed, since September 17, 2019 it has funneled a cumulative total of $6.6 trillion to some of  the 24 trading houses on Wall Street that are known as its “primary dealers.” The giant sum has been sluiced to Wall Street in the form of repurchase agreement (repo) loans without any details being provided to the elected representatives in Congress as to which fi...



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Zero Hedge

Coronavirus Kills Man In Shanghai As China Confirms Nearly 2,000 Cases

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary
  • First nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first 'presumptive case' of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities - 56 million people - quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a 'grave situation' as the spread is 'accelerating'
  • US and Russia plan...


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Insider Scoop

10 Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Moving In Monday's Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Antares Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATRS) stock surged 3.4% to $4.12 during Monday's regular session.

Losers

NeuroMetrix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NURO) stock decreased by 29.0% to $3.37 during Monday's regular session.

Akers Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKER) stock declined 7.8% to $2.95.

Staar Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:STAA) shares declined 4....



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Chart School

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns..

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

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The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



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Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



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Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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