Posts Tagged ‘Steve Sakwa’

Merrill: “Retail REITs – Tough But Stabilizing”

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Merrill: "Retail REITs – Tough But Stabilizing"

In his first note released in the post Sakwa world, Craig Schmidt continues to attempt to restore confidence in retail REITs. It would, after all, seem prudent to bang clients’ heads into their desks until they see the light at the end of the tunnel (oncoming bullet train?) at a time when the only cash, and equity value, REITs can create is by raising expensive, dilutive equity in order to repay the cheapest form of capital (that of secured loans previously held by Mr. Schmidt uber parent, Bank of America). This is especially true, after these same clients have plunked down about $20 billion in new equity in companies that at this point exist on fumes of hope, speculation and short covering. not surprisingly, the report comes just prior to Realtors’s release which indicates that Commercial Real Estate activity in Q1 fell 4.8% from Q4 of 2008 and 12.9% year over year, while vacancy rates are poised to rise to 12.1% from 9.7% last year.

While the title is expected, even Mr. Schmidt is at a loss to present the REIT "green shoots" that would substantiate his note. Amsuingly, Schmidt quotes favorable restaurant trends to back up the stabilization thesis:

Some positive signs included Dr. Mark Zandi’s (Chief Economist, Moody’s economy.com) citing that restaurants reported stronger same store sales gains than supermarkets in the most recent period, which suggests an increase in consumer confidence. Additionally, retail trends, while still negative, have improved from 4Q08, which were so dramatically negative that retailers were behaving like “deer caught in the headlights.”

Now that people are rushing to Nobu, maxing out their Centurions and hoping, very much like YRC, they can apply for and receive TARP funding, all must be good. The other "solid" positive:

Of the most seriously troubled retail markets (Southern California, Florida, Phoenix and Las Vegas), the only market that seems to have improved somewhat is Southern California. We still hear very distressing things about the other markets.

Nothing like Californians spending with reckless abandon, concurrently with voting down Schwarzenneger’s hail mary proposals to scrape up some semblance of a budget. Next stop: California’s utter fiscal collapse, and Geithner fixing that problem as well, by securitizing all default credit cards through a AAA rated TALF issue. Now, as for


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Zero Hedge

This KKR-Backed Healthcare Firm Just Slashed Doctors' Pay In The Middle Of An "Unprecedented" Pandemic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Even if they aren't exactly certain how the business model works, Twitter blue checks and the rest of the mainstream media - having been whipped into an anti-banker fervor by Bernie Sanders and the last glowing embers of Occupy - never pass up an opportunity to kick private equity in the nuts.

And if there's one industry where private equity has done the most to directly...



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Phil's Favorites

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

 

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (pink dots) on a dying cell. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH

Benjamin Neuman, Texas A&M University-Texarkana

COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.

A coronavirus infection usually plays o...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

 

What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly

SARS-CoV-2 virus particles (pink dots) on a dying cell. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH

Benjamin Neuman, Texas A&M University-Texarkana

COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.

A coronavirus infection usually plays o...



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ValueWalk

Junior gold stocks offer a place of refuge in a falling market

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Junior gold stocks have taken a beating alongside other stocks, but history suggests this could be the time to dive in. The Vaneck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is down from where it was in February, although it’s starting to show signs that it could revive soon.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Crescat likes junior gold stocks

In their March update to investors, Crescat Capital said junior gold stocks retested the lows of a nine-year bear market. ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Depression Coming or Is the Bottom Already In? Joe Friday Says Your Answer Lies Here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are we headed towards a Depression or is the worst already behind us? In today’s world, comparisons to the great depression are easy to find.

Are the Depression concerns well founded or are the declines of late already pricing in a bottom?

In my humble opinion, this chart and the upcoming price action of this index will go miles and miles towards telling us if we are headed towards very tough times or if the huge declines of late are actually in a bottoming process.

This chart looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index on a monthly basis over the past 54 years. The index has been heading south, reflecting weakness in demand for basi...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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The Technical Traders

Founder of TradersWorld Magazine Issued Special Report for Free

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Larry Jacobs owner and editor of TradersWorld magazine published a free special report with his top article and market forecast to his readers yesterday.

What is really exciting is that this forecast for all assets has played out exactly as expected from the stock market crash within his time window to the gold rally, and sharp sell-off. These forecasts have just gotten started the recent moves were only the first part of his price forecasts.

There is only one article in this special supplement, click on the image or link below to download and read it today!

...

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Chart School

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.


RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 














Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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