Posts Tagged ‘stress tests’

Monday Market Measurement – Just Right?

Welcome to dead center! 

We are finally back to the middle of our predicted trading range.  It's the range that our 5% rule predicted since October of 2008 so we're hardly going to be shocked to be here now.  Usually we are shocked when we're NOT in our range.  I detailed the movement this weekend in our 5% Rule Update, so I won't get into it all here but let's just focus on our short-term chart and embrace the uncertainty as we move back to the middle of our range at 1,100

I say it all the time and I'll say it again:  I'm not bullish or bearish – I'm rangeish.  That means I get more bullish at 5% under our line and I get more bearish at 5% over our line and I get extremely bullish or bearish as we get into that 10% zone because – if the market fundamentals don't change – then my midpoint doesn't change and the opportunity is to play us to return to "reality" at S&P 1,100 (Dow 10,200). 

Just look at those nifty little resistance points we have to watch now – the 200 dma is at 1113 and the 50 dma is at 1,084 and we just ran up from 1,030 (we ignore spikes) past the 5% rule at 1,081, which just so happens to be pretty much the 50 dma so that will be our key test for the week as our bottom to top run from 1,101 to 1,102 is close enough to 10% to merit a 2% (20% of the run) pullback back to, WHOOPS!, 1,080.  So 1,080, 1,080 and 1,080 is our line in the sand for the week.  If the rally is real, the number will hold and, if it doesn't hold (especially with all the earnings and economic data we have coming in) then we have to look at the drop from 1,220 to 1,020 (200 points) and consider the move back to 1,120 nothing more than a strong, 50% bounce back to our mid-range. 

We are past the EU Stress tests but JPM says 54 banks should have failed for the following reasons:

  • Lack of rigour in macroeconomic stresses, leading to low virtual portfolio loss rates
  • Sovereign haircuts were applied only to trading


continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




More Stress Test Shenanigans

More Stress Test Shenanigans

Magician performing trick on stage

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

AFP reports:

The Federal Reserve will expand its so-called stress tests of the banking system to ensure they have enough capital during difficult periods, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday.

Bernanke highlighted the positive impact of stress tests conducted earlier this year on major banks, a move aimed at ensuring their financial health and building confidence.

"Building on the success of this initiative, we will conduct more frequent, broader, and more comprehensive horizontal examinations, evaluating both the overall risk profiles of institutions as well as specific risks and risk-management issues," Bernanke told a conference organized by the Boston Federal Reserve.

The highly publicized stress tests conducted earlier this year focused on 19 major banks, and indicated 10 needed additional capital.

Bernanke said the Fed would step up efforts to review bank capital requirements to avoid a recurrence of the credit crisis that has spread around the world.

"Additional steps are necessary to ensure that all banking organizations hold adequate capital," he said.

He noted that the Financial Stability Board — a global watchdog made up of senior representatives of national financial authorities — had called for "significantly stronger capital standards," and that the Group of 20 "has committed to develop rules to improve both the quantity and quality of bank capital."

"The Federal Reserve supports these initiatives. The structure of capital requirements should also be reviewed," Bernanke said.

Should we be reassured by the new round of stress tests?

Well, let’s take a look:

  • Time Magazine called the previous stress tests a "confidence game" and Geithner a "con man" for running them deceptively
  • Paul Krugman called the stress tests a mere "self-esteem class" for banks that no bank would be allowed to fail
  • Nouriel Roubini said the stress tests "fail the basic criterion of a reality check"
  • William K. Black called them "a complete sham"
  • FDIC head Sheila Bair didn’t believe they were credible
  • The stress tests were a P.R. stunt devised by the banks themselves
  • The government has more or less admitted that the stress tests were meaningless (see this and this)

In addition, AFP quotes Bernanke as saying:

"For example, to reduce the tendency of current capital requirements to


continue reading


Tags: , , , ,




Hey, Look, The Stress Tests Really Weren’t Stressful Enough

Hey, Look, The Stress Tests Really Weren’t Stressful Enough

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Calculated Risk illustrates what we already knew: the bank stress tests weren’t nearly stressful enough.

The chart below looks at unemployment by quarter.  The green bars are the "base case" in the stress tests (the most likely scenario, in the government’s opinion).  The blue bars are the "adverse case" scenario--unlikely but possible.  And the red bars are what’s actually happening (Q2 is a forecast).

The larger story here, unfortunately, is that the Obama administration continues to blow its credibility on the economy.  By being too optimistic from the get-go, the administration is opening the door for critics and opponents who are already arguing that the Obama plan has failed.

Calculated Risk has a bigger version of the chart and more thoughts here >

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The 'Golden Age Of Plastic'? Banks Are Quietly Raising Credit Limits For Freespending Borrowers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Credit-card lenders are calling it the 'Golden Age of Plastic'. But that's mostly because they're the ones hoarding all the gold.

Gloom-and-doom economists who have portended the imminent collapse of the American consumer (we don't want to name names) might have a reason to put off their calls for a downturn of epic proportions just a little bit longer. Because at a t...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

BOGUS DEFENSE BINGO

 

BOGUS DEFENSE BINGO

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

(Teri is an author, political commentator and lawyer. Visit her blog for more of her thoughts here.)

If the Trump Defense Trial Brief is any indication, we will be hearing lot of bogus defenses and crazy conspiracy theories.

I wanted a way to get through it without wanting to poke my eyeballs with a fork.

So I came up with an idea: Bogus Defense Bingo. You can get your bingo card here.

...

more from Ilene

The Technical Traders

The Wuhan Wipeout - Could It Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

News is traveling fast about the Corona Virus that originated in Wuhan, China. Two new confirmed cases in the US, one in Europe and hundreds in China. As we learn more about thispotential pandemic outbreak, we are learning that China did very little to contain this problem from the start. Now, quarantining two cities and trying to control the potential
outbreak, may become a futile effort.

In most of Asia, the Chinese New Year is already in full swing.  Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Malaysia, India and a host of other countries are already starting to celebrate the 7 to 10 day long New Year.  Millions of people have already traveled hundreds of thousands of miles to visit family...



more from Tech. Traders

Kimble Charting Solutions

Bad News For Crude Oil Should Come From This Pattern, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It’s a good idea for investors to be aware of key indicators and inter-market relationships.

Perhaps it’s watching the US Dollar as an indicator for precious metals or emerging markets. Or watching interest rates for the economy. Experience, history, and relationships matter. And it’s good to simply add these to our tool-kit.

Today, we look at another relationship that has signaled numerous stock market tops and bottoms over the years, and especially the past several months, Crude Oil.

When crude oil tops or bottoms, it seems that ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

5 Software-Application Stocks Moving In Thursday's After-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers

Atlassian Corporation, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEAM) stock surged 9.7% to $145.50 during Thursday's after-market session. According to the most recent rating by Morgan Stanley, on January 13, the current rating is at Overweight.

Diebold Nixdorf, Inc. (NYSE:DBD) shares increased by 8.1% to $11.48. The most recent rating by DA Davidson, on December 13, is at Buy, with a price target of $17.00.

Telaria, Inc. (NYSE:TLRA) stock rose 4...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Snakes could be the original source of the new coronavirus outbreak in China

Chinese cobra (Naja atra) with hood spread. Briston/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Haitao Guo, University of Pittsburgh; Guangxiang “George” Luo, Univers...



more from Biotech

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)



Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!


...

more from Chart School

Members' Corner

The War on All Fact People

 

David Brin shares an excerpt from his new book on the relentless war against democracy and how we can fight back. You can also read the first, second and final chapters of Polemical Judo at David's blog Contrary Brin.

The War on All Fact People 

Excerpted from David Brin's new book, the beginning of chapter 5, Polemical Judo: Memes...



more from Our Members

Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



more from Lee

Digital Currencies

Cryptos Have Surged Since Soleimani Death, Bitcoin Tops $8,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Bitcoin is up over 15% since the assassination of Iran General Soleimani...

Source: Bloomberg

...topping $8,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving...

Source: Bloomberg

Testing its key 100-day moving-average for the first time since October...

...



more from Bitcoin

Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>