Posts Tagged ‘SUN’

Options Heat Up On Chipotle As Shares Cool After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: CMG, N & SUN

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. – Lower-than-expected second-quarter sales reported by the operator of fast-casual Mexican food restaurants on Thursday sent shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill down as much as 24% on Friday to $307.20 and sparked frenzied trading in the options. The high-flying stock had been up roughly 20% year-to-date as of the close of trading yesterday. Chipotle options saw both bullish and bearish trading this morning, with volume topping 105,000 contracts as of 11:35 a.m. ET versus the stock’s average daily options volume of 14,547 contracts. Traders positioning for shares to extend losses snapped up weekly puts, paying an average premium of $12.55 per contract for around 2,000 of the July 27 ’12 $315 strike contracts. Bearish activity spread to far out-of-the-money puts expiring in August, with upwards of 1,000 contracts in play at each of the Aug. $295 and $300 strikes. Meanwhile, traders with an appetite for a Chipotle rebound in the near future purchased upside calls. The Aug. $350, $355 and $360 call options each traded more than 1,100 times in the first couple of hours of the trading session, while the Aug. $420 strike call changed hands around 1,400 times. Traders that appear to have purchased most of these call options stand ready to profit in the event Chipotle’s stock reverses course ahead of expiration.

N - NetSuite, Inc. – The software company popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning due to heavier than usual activity in the August expiry puts. Shares in NetSuite are down 6.6% on the session to stand at $50.05 as of midday in New York. The San Mateo, California-based company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the final bell next Thursday and it looks like some strategists are picking up puts in preparation. Options volume is heaviest at the Aug. $45 strike where upwards of 2,100 puts changed hands versus open interest…
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Options Suggest Rough Seas Possible For Carnival; Rallies In Sight For Hess, Sunoco

 

Today’s tickers: CCL, HES & SUN

CCL - Carnival Corp. – A debit put spread initiated on cruise operator, Carnival Corp., may be a protective strategy or, perhaps, an outright bearish bet that shares in the name will sink following the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Tuesday. Shares in Carnival are up 1.0% at a near six-month high of $34.16 as of 10:50 a.m. ET, bringing the stock’s week-to-date gains up to 8.75%, on optimism slumping oil prices is positive for the cruise industry. It looks like one trader prepared for the shares to potentially reverse gains purchased a 2,000-lot July $30/$32 put spread for a net premium of $0.50 per contract. The position makes money, or provides downside protection, in the event that Carnival’s shares slide 7.8% to breach the effective breakeven price of $31.50. Maximum potential gains available on the spread amount to $1.50 per contract should the price of the stock drop 12.2% to $30.00 within the next five weeks to expiration.

HES - Hess Corp. – The global integrated energy company popped up on our scanners early in the trading session on Wednesday after a sizable three-legged spread was initiated in the November expiry options. It looks like one strategist is selling out-of-the-money puts to reduce the cost of taking a bullish stance on the stock. Shares in Hess are today lower by 0.90% at $43.54 as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. The largest transaction in HES options so far today was constructed with the sale of 2,000 puts at the Nov. $37.5 strike against the purchase of a 2,000-lot Nov. $45/$52.5 call spread done at a net premium outlay of $0.03 per contract. Profits are available on the trade if shares in Hess Corp. rally 3.4% to surpass the effective breakeven point on the upside at $45.03 by expiration. The strategist stands to make as much as $7.47 per contract in the event that HES stock price soars 21.0%…
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GameStop Bear Positions For Post-Earnings Pullback

Today’s tickers: GME, FTR, SUN & HNZ

GME - GameStop Corp. – The remainder of the trading week is unlikely to be all fun-and-games for shareholders in GameStop Corp., according to bearish trading in its put options this morning. Protective or perhaps outright bearish positioning in GME options arrives just in time for the world’s largest video game retailer’s third-quarter earnings report due out ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. It looks like the buyer of a debit put spread in the front month is prepared for shares in GME to head lower following the release. Shares in the world’s largest video game retailer are currently down 3.0% to stand at $23.90 as of 11:50 AM in New York. The investor responsible for most of the volume in GameStop Corp. options in the first half of the trading session on Tuesday purchased a 1,000-lot Nov. $23/$24 put spread for a net premium of $0.30 per contract. The trader makes money if shares in GME settle below the effective breakeven price of $23.70 at expiration this week. Maximum potential profits of $0.70 per contract are available to the put player in the event that shares in the video game retailer drop 3.75% from the current price of $23.90 to settle below $23.00 at expiration.

FTR - Frontier Communications Corp. – Options traders appear to be bulking up on bearish positions in Frontier Communications for the second consecutive day this week, with shares in the Stamford, Connecticut-based company sliding 2.3% lower to $5.43 by 11:15 AM ET on Tuesday. The stock also fell 2.3% on Monday to close at $5.57. Investors positioning for the stock to continue to drop within the next few months are accumulating sizable positions in the closest-to-the-money strike put available in the February contract. It looks like one investor snapped up more than 4,500 puts at the Feb. 2012 $5.0 strike for a premium of $0.35 each in the first 30 minutes of the trading session. The put buyer may profit at expiration next year if shares in Frontier fall 14.4% to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $4.65. Bearish trading in the same Feb. 2012 $5.0 strike put occurred in the final 10 minutes of trading on Monday, as well. It appears one investor purchased a block of 5,000 of the put options for a premium of $0.30 apiece yesterday. Both positions, which may or may not…
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Financial RoadmapWe're just waiting on the Fed today, as are the rest of the markets.

Yesterday's volume was the lowest since Sept 11th but not as low as Monday, which was our lowest volume since the end of June, just before we had a 5% correction.  June 26th and 29th were our last two consecutive ultra-low volume days but June 30th was much bigger (a down 100 day), July 1st was up again on low volume and then July 2nd was another big down day and we bottomed out on July 10th.  That was the time that the media was telling us we were forming a "classic" head and shoulders pattern and were doomed to revisit the March lows.  It was also the last time we enthusiastically bought stocks

At the time of that weekly review (7/11), we had CAL at $10 (now $16.82), CBS at $5.97 (now $12.58), COST at $43.45 (now $58.58), CVX – who we just shorted – at $58.20 (now $72.60), DIS at $22.41 (now $28.38), EXM at $6.05 (now $7.32), RT at $7.12 (now $8.85), SNDK at $14.47 (now $22.91), SPY at $87.96 (now $107.27), SPWRA at $22.35 (now $32.63), SUN at $22.09 (now $27.75), V at $59.86 (now $74.41), VLO at $15.57 (now $20.50), WFR at $16.61 (now 19.09), X at $30.77 (now $50.45), XLF at $11.10 (now $15.35), XOM at $65.12 (now $69.85) and ZION at $11 (now $19).  Of course our members had much better entries as we had been targeting our entries on all of those but anyone reading our weekend review on July 11th could have played along at home from those prices (we even spiked down at Monday's open) and when I say we are now bearish – it is that we are bearishly protecting these ridiculous profits – the kind of profits you usually don't get after 3 years, not 3 months!

Overall, the broader market is up 20% over that time so it can be argued that a monkey with a dart board could have made good picks at that time but, if you read that week's notes – you'll notice that this monkey was screaming for people to buy and was going against what pretty much EVERY other analyst was saying and I was confident enough…
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Wrong Way Weekly Wrap-Up

I am trying to get bullish, really I am.

As I said to Members on Thursday morning in chat, like Sam Jackson in Pulp Fiction: "I'm trying hard to be the (bullish) shepherd" but the data makes it hard – so very hard!  Anyway, I'm not here to complain about the market forces moving against us but to review the carnage of our picks going all the way back to Sept 10th, when we decided the prior day's beige book was not going to be enough to break out over 9,600 on the Dow.  Now, with the Dow at 9,820 after testing 9,900 it's a good idea to look back and see what we missed in this last 2.5% leg up

On Thursday the 10th, we talked about patterns.  One pattern I recommended following right in the morning post was the famous "stick save" investment.  Simply buying high-delta DIA calls at about 2:30 each afternoon and selling into the pumped-up close.  That was a winning play on the 10th, 11th (Fri), 14th and 16th but not the last two days, when we turned a lot more bearish – but we'll get to that further down this review. 4 out of 5 days is pretty good for a patten and seeing it broken 3 of the past 5 days is also significant.  I did promise that Thursday that we will look for more bullish opportunities once we have a clear break over our last two levels (NYSE 6,959 and S&P 1,056) and we did make those this week.  If we hold it through Tuesday, it will be time and we're going to line up some trades this weekend.  True to my word on that Thursday, we chose a variety of bullish and bearish plays in Member Chat.  I'm posting the plays along with suggested adjustments if needed as it's a nice way to review our various strategies in progress – especially under "adverse" conditions.

Trade ideas of the day for Members were:

  • DIA $95 puts that ended up being rolled and doubled down for a net 20% gain (too much bother to detail).
  • SUN at $23.36, now $28.45 (up $5.09), short Oct $25 calls at $2.20, now 3.70 (down $1.50) and short the Jan $22.50 puts at $1.15, now .70 (up .45).

    • Another buy/write at net $23.01/22.76, already


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Verifone Options Indicate Bullish Positioning at Payment Provider

Today’s tickers: PAY, GLD, WFC, SMH, CMCSK, SUN, KO & MON

PAY - The designer of systems that enable secure electronic payments edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish stance was taken in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the firm have increased nearly 1% today to stand at $14.13. The options action observed indicates that one investor expects significant appreciation in shares by next year. But, the trader apparently does not see the stock rising much higher than the current 52-week high of 19.91, attained nearly one year ago on September 12, 2008. The bullish trader was seen partially financing the purchase of a long call spread by selling 12,000 out-of-the-money puts at the January 10 strike for 55 cents each. He then bought 12,000 calls at the January 12.5 strike for 3.10 per contract, spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 20 strike for 42 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the spread was reduced to 2.13. Thus, the trader stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 5.37 should the stock surges to $20.00 by expiration in January. Shares would need to rally a whopping 42% from the current price for the trader to pocket the maximum available profits of approximately $6,444,000. We note that the 36,000 lot trade put on today exceeds the previous existing open interest on the stock of 29,251. – Verifone Holdings, Inc. –

GLD - Option traders established ratio put spreads on the gold exchange-traded fund today amid a 1% rally in shares to $97.86. Gold is actually a couple of dollars lower today as the dollar regains its feet and investors critically assess the rationale for gold’s recent ascent. Today’s put spreads represent downside protection for investors hoping to lock in gains assumed to have been made during the recent rally in the price of gold. Using the November contract 2,500 puts were picked up at the November 97 strike for 4.20 apiece, and spread against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower November 93 strike for 2.25 each. The investor pockets a net credit of 30 cents on the trade, which he will retain in full if shares of the GLD remain higher than $97.00 by expiration. Beneath a price of $97.00 for GLD, the investor faces rising profits should shares fall to $93.00…
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Zero Hedge

FDA Expedites Review Process For Omicron Vaccines And Drugs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

It's been one week since the omicron variant first rattled markets and prompted the Federal Reserve's latest rethink of its plans for rolling back its monetary stimulus. And in that time, vaccine-makers have talked their book by sharing plans to produce new omicron-targeted vaccines, while others claim that there are no data suggesting the Pfizer-BioNTech jab is less effective against omicron.

Assuming the world still does care about omicron three months from now (the first cases of the variant have only just been confirmed in the US in recent days), the FDA and its advisors are reportedly working on an expedited approval pro...



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Phil's Favorites

Twitter Has a New CEO; What About a New Business Model?

 

Twitter Has a New CEO; What About a New Business Model?

Courtesy of Ben Thompson, Stratechery, originally published on Nov. 30, 2021

From CNBC:

Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is stepping down as chief of the social media company, effective immediately. Parag Agrawal, Twitter’s chief technology officer, will take over the helm, the company said Monday. Shares of Twitter closed down 2.74% on the day.

Dorsey, 45, was serving as both the CEO of Twitter and Square, his digital payments company. Dorsey will remain a member of th...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver stock cycle bottom near

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There are some regular cycles at play with the Gold and Silver stock leaders.

The metal stocks cycles in Australia lead the rest of world metal stocks. This is because you can make gains on the stock prices as well as the currency price (AUDUSD), this is the worlds first go to gold stock.

The US FED has just announced inflation is not transitory but is structural. This opens the door for inflation hedging strategies, and gold and silver stocks will be part of this play.

Chart 1 - This shows ASX Newcrest Mining near cycle lows, this is important as Wyckoff logic investors will be watching for 'whale' buying and accumulation swings up and down. Yes we may see a few more weeks of price moving along range bound lows but the cycle does ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron and market sell-off: don't be surprised if there's more turbulence to come

 

Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come

shutterstock.

Courtesy of Arturo Bris, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)

Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%.

There had ...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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