Posts Tagged ‘SUN’

Options Heat Up On Chipotle As Shares Cool After Earnings

 

Today’s tickers: CMG, N & SUN

CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. – Lower-than-expected second-quarter sales reported by the operator of fast-casual Mexican food restaurants on Thursday sent shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill down as much as 24% on Friday to $307.20 and sparked frenzied trading in the options. The high-flying stock had been up roughly 20% year-to-date as of the close of trading yesterday. Chipotle options saw both bullish and bearish trading this morning, with volume topping 105,000 contracts as of 11:35 a.m. ET versus the stock’s average daily options volume of 14,547 contracts. Traders positioning for shares to extend losses snapped up weekly puts, paying an average premium of $12.55 per contract for around 2,000 of the July 27 ’12 $315 strike contracts. Bearish activity spread to far out-of-the-money puts expiring in August, with upwards of 1,000 contracts in play at each of the Aug. $295 and $300 strikes. Meanwhile, traders with an appetite for a Chipotle rebound in the near future purchased upside calls. The Aug. $350, $355 and $360 call options each traded more than 1,100 times in the first couple of hours of the trading session, while the Aug. $420 strike call changed hands around 1,400 times. Traders that appear to have purchased most of these call options stand ready to profit in the event Chipotle’s stock reverses course ahead of expiration.

N - NetSuite, Inc. – The software company popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning due to heavier than usual activity in the August expiry puts. Shares in NetSuite are down 6.6% on the session to stand at $50.05 as of midday in New York. The San Mateo, California-based company is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the final bell next Thursday and it looks like some strategists are picking up puts in preparation. Options volume is heaviest at the Aug. $45 strike where upwards of 2,100 puts changed hands versus open interest…
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Options Suggest Rough Seas Possible For Carnival; Rallies In Sight For Hess, Sunoco

 

Today’s tickers: CCL, HES & SUN

CCL - Carnival Corp. – A debit put spread initiated on cruise operator, Carnival Corp., may be a protective strategy or, perhaps, an outright bearish bet that shares in the name will sink following the company’s second-quarter earnings report next Tuesday. Shares in Carnival are up 1.0% at a near six-month high of $34.16 as of 10:50 a.m. ET, bringing the stock’s week-to-date gains up to 8.75%, on optimism slumping oil prices is positive for the cruise industry. It looks like one trader prepared for the shares to potentially reverse gains purchased a 2,000-lot July $30/$32 put spread for a net premium of $0.50 per contract. The position makes money, or provides downside protection, in the event that Carnival’s shares slide 7.8% to breach the effective breakeven price of $31.50. Maximum potential gains available on the spread amount to $1.50 per contract should the price of the stock drop 12.2% to $30.00 within the next five weeks to expiration.

HES - Hess Corp. – The global integrated energy company popped up on our scanners early in the trading session on Wednesday after a sizable three-legged spread was initiated in the November expiry options. It looks like one strategist is selling out-of-the-money puts to reduce the cost of taking a bullish stance on the stock. Shares in Hess are today lower by 0.90% at $43.54 as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. The largest transaction in HES options so far today was constructed with the sale of 2,000 puts at the Nov. $37.5 strike against the purchase of a 2,000-lot Nov. $45/$52.5 call spread done at a net premium outlay of $0.03 per contract. Profits are available on the trade if shares in Hess Corp. rally 3.4% to surpass the effective breakeven point on the upside at $45.03 by expiration. The strategist stands to make as much as $7.47 per contract in the event that HES stock price soars 21.0%…
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GameStop Bear Positions For Post-Earnings Pullback

Today’s tickers: GME, FTR, SUN & HNZ

GME - GameStop Corp. – The remainder of the trading week is unlikely to be all fun-and-games for shareholders in GameStop Corp., according to bearish trading in its put options this morning. Protective or perhaps outright bearish positioning in GME options arrives just in time for the world’s largest video game retailer’s third-quarter earnings report due out ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. It looks like the buyer of a debit put spread in the front month is prepared for shares in GME to head lower following the release. Shares in the world’s largest video game retailer are currently down 3.0% to stand at $23.90 as of 11:50 AM in New York. The investor responsible for most of the volume in GameStop Corp. options in the first half of the trading session on Tuesday purchased a 1,000-lot Nov. $23/$24 put spread for a net premium of $0.30 per contract. The trader makes money if shares in GME settle below the effective breakeven price of $23.70 at expiration this week. Maximum potential profits of $0.70 per contract are available to the put player in the event that shares in the video game retailer drop 3.75% from the current price of $23.90 to settle below $23.00 at expiration.

FTR - Frontier Communications Corp. – Options traders appear to be bulking up on bearish positions in Frontier Communications for the second consecutive day this week, with shares in the Stamford, Connecticut-based company sliding 2.3% lower to $5.43 by 11:15 AM ET on Tuesday. The stock also fell 2.3% on Monday to close at $5.57. Investors positioning for the stock to continue to drop within the next few months are accumulating sizable positions in the closest-to-the-money strike put available in the February contract. It looks like one investor snapped up more than 4,500 puts at the Feb. 2012 $5.0 strike for a premium of $0.35 each in the first 30 minutes of the trading session. The put buyer may profit at expiration next year if shares in Frontier fall 14.4% to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $4.65. Bearish trading in the same Feb. 2012 $5.0 strike put occurred in the final 10 minutes of trading on Monday, as well. It appears one investor purchased a block of 5,000 of the put options for a premium of $0.30 apiece yesterday. Both positions, which may or may not…
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Financial RoadmapWe're just waiting on the Fed today, as are the rest of the markets.

Yesterday's volume was the lowest since Sept 11th but not as low as Monday, which was our lowest volume since the end of June, just before we had a 5% correction.  June 26th and 29th were our last two consecutive ultra-low volume days but June 30th was much bigger (a down 100 day), July 1st was up again on low volume and then July 2nd was another big down day and we bottomed out on July 10th.  That was the time that the media was telling us we were forming a "classic" head and shoulders pattern and were doomed to revisit the March lows.  It was also the last time we enthusiastically bought stocks

At the time of that weekly review (7/11), we had CAL at $10 (now $16.82), CBS at $5.97 (now $12.58), COST at $43.45 (now $58.58), CVX – who we just shorted – at $58.20 (now $72.60), DIS at $22.41 (now $28.38), EXM at $6.05 (now $7.32), RT at $7.12 (now $8.85), SNDK at $14.47 (now $22.91), SPY at $87.96 (now $107.27), SPWRA at $22.35 (now $32.63), SUN at $22.09 (now $27.75), V at $59.86 (now $74.41), VLO at $15.57 (now $20.50), WFR at $16.61 (now 19.09), X at $30.77 (now $50.45), XLF at $11.10 (now $15.35), XOM at $65.12 (now $69.85) and ZION at $11 (now $19).  Of course our members had much better entries as we had been targeting our entries on all of those but anyone reading our weekend review on July 11th could have played along at home from those prices (we even spiked down at Monday's open) and when I say we are now bearish – it is that we are bearishly protecting these ridiculous profits – the kind of profits you usually don't get after 3 years, not 3 months!

Overall, the broader market is up 20% over that time so it can be argued that a monkey with a dart board could have made good picks at that time but, if you read that week's notes – you'll notice that this monkey was screaming for people to buy and was going against what pretty much EVERY other analyst was saying and I was confident enough…
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Wrong Way Weekly Wrap-Up

I am trying to get bullish, really I am.

As I said to Members on Thursday morning in chat, like Sam Jackson in Pulp Fiction: "I'm trying hard to be the (bullish) shepherd" but the data makes it hard – so very hard!  Anyway, I'm not here to complain about the market forces moving against us but to review the carnage of our picks going all the way back to Sept 10th, when we decided the prior day's beige book was not going to be enough to break out over 9,600 on the Dow.  Now, with the Dow at 9,820 after testing 9,900 it's a good idea to look back and see what we missed in this last 2.5% leg up

On Thursday the 10th, we talked about patterns.  One pattern I recommended following right in the morning post was the famous "stick save" investment.  Simply buying high-delta DIA calls at about 2:30 each afternoon and selling into the pumped-up close.  That was a winning play on the 10th, 11th (Fri), 14th and 16th but not the last two days, when we turned a lot more bearish – but we'll get to that further down this review. 4 out of 5 days is pretty good for a patten and seeing it broken 3 of the past 5 days is also significant.  I did promise that Thursday that we will look for more bullish opportunities once we have a clear break over our last two levels (NYSE 6,959 and S&P 1,056) and we did make those this week.  If we hold it through Tuesday, it will be time and we're going to line up some trades this weekend.  True to my word on that Thursday, we chose a variety of bullish and bearish plays in Member Chat.  I'm posting the plays along with suggested adjustments if needed as it's a nice way to review our various strategies in progress – especially under "adverse" conditions.

Trade ideas of the day for Members were:

  • DIA $95 puts that ended up being rolled and doubled down for a net 20% gain (too much bother to detail).
  • SUN at $23.36, now $28.45 (up $5.09), short Oct $25 calls at $2.20, now 3.70 (down $1.50) and short the Jan $22.50 puts at $1.15, now .70 (up .45).

    • Another buy/write at net $23.01/22.76, already


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Verifone Options Indicate Bullish Positioning at Payment Provider

Today’s tickers: PAY, GLD, WFC, SMH, CMCSK, SUN, KO & MON

PAY - The designer of systems that enable secure electronic payments edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a large bullish stance was taken in the January 2010 contract. Shares of the firm have increased nearly 1% today to stand at $14.13. The options action observed indicates that one investor expects significant appreciation in shares by next year. But, the trader apparently does not see the stock rising much higher than the current 52-week high of 19.91, attained nearly one year ago on September 12, 2008. The bullish trader was seen partially financing the purchase of a long call spread by selling 12,000 out-of-the-money puts at the January 10 strike for 55 cents each. He then bought 12,000 calls at the January 12.5 strike for 3.10 per contract, spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 20 strike for 42 cents premium apiece. The net cost of the spread was reduced to 2.13. Thus, the trader stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 5.37 should the stock surges to $20.00 by expiration in January. Shares would need to rally a whopping 42% from the current price for the trader to pocket the maximum available profits of approximately $6,444,000. We note that the 36,000 lot trade put on today exceeds the previous existing open interest on the stock of 29,251. – Verifone Holdings, Inc. –

GLD - Option traders established ratio put spreads on the gold exchange-traded fund today amid a 1% rally in shares to $97.86. Gold is actually a couple of dollars lower today as the dollar regains its feet and investors critically assess the rationale for gold’s recent ascent. Today’s put spreads represent downside protection for investors hoping to lock in gains assumed to have been made during the recent rally in the price of gold. Using the November contract 2,500 puts were picked up at the November 97 strike for 4.20 apiece, and spread against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower November 93 strike for 2.25 each. The investor pockets a net credit of 30 cents on the trade, which he will retain in full if shares of the GLD remain higher than $97.00 by expiration. Beneath a price of $97.00 for GLD, the investor faces rising profits should shares fall to $93.00…
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper breaking out after large decline, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Doc Copper over the past few months has been hit hard, as sellers drove it down nearly 25%.

This decline brought it to the price point (2), where four different support lines came into play, which looks like a support cluster. As the decline was taking place, momentum was hitting oversold levels.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– This week Doc Copper is experiencing its strongest rally this year, as it breaks above steep falling resistance.

Should Doc Copper contin...



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Zero Hedge

Walmart Warns It Will Be Forced To Raise Prices Due To Trade War

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One of the reasons why the US economic response to Trump's trade war with China had been lukewarm at best, is that US consumers had not been subject to any of the inflationary consequences of the escalating tariffs between Washington and Beijing. That, however, is about to change: overnight Walmart issued a warning in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer that it may have to raise prices due to tariffs on Chinese imports, CNN Money reported.

"The immediate impact will be to raise prices on consumers and tax American business and ...



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Phil's Favorites

Why do so many people fall for fake profiles online?

 

Why do so many people fall for fake profiles online?

Do you want to be friends with this person? Sasun Bughdaryan

Courtesy of Arun Vishwanath, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

The first step in conducting online propaganda efforts and misinformation campaigns is almost always a fake social media profile. Phony profiles for nonexistent people worm their way into the social networks of real people, where they can spread their falsehoods. But neither social media companies nor technological innovations offer reliable ways to iden...



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ValueWalk

Jeremy Seigel: Buy Moar Stocks

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at The Wharton School, discusses the “incredible strength” of the markets.

H/T Dataroma

Seigel: Markets Show US And China Can’t Have A Full Trade War

Q2 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

Transcript

I just finished my class here at Wharton and I inherited who's a who's afraid of the big bad Trump. Clearly the stock market is I mean you know you thought tariffs are g...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Bullish On Amazon's New Automated Stores

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AMZN Stitch Fix Falls After Piper Jaffray Downgrade; Analyst Says 'Smallest Hint Of Pressure' Could Threaten Valuation ...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 16, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

Slow and steady drip up all this past week in a very quiet news environment.  A gap down top open the day Tuesday (which was recovered quickly) and a gap up Thursday (which held) were the highlights!

The latest on TRADE WARS!(tm):

Tuesday, news hit that China vowed to retaliate and plans to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S. for Washington’s noncompliance with a ruling in a dispute over U.S. dumping duties, Reuters reported. That’s part of a dispute that goes back to 2013.

“Trade wars are certainly a concern, but I don’t know that they’re a one...



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Members' Corner

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

 

Adding this article to Members Corner, in case anyone wants to share their opinions on Nike and Kaep, or on divisiveness in general. Also see "A Warning From Europe: The Worst Is Yet to Come" and "What’s behind the current wave of ‘corporate activism’?" ~ Ilene

Nike, Colin Kaepernick and the pitfalls of 'woke' corporate branding

Courtesy of Simon Chadwick, University of Salford and ...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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