Posts Tagged ‘SWKS’

Options Volume Pops At VeriFone As Shares Take A Dive

 

Today’s tickers: PAY, RFMD & SWKS

PAY - VeriFone Systems, Inc. – VeriFone’s lower-than-expected forecast for second-quarter earnings sent shares in the provider of electronic payment systems down nearly 40% to the lowest level since July 2010 on Thursday morning, and drove options volume on the stock to roughly four times its daily average by 11:35 a.m. ET. The total number of call and put options in play on VeriFone this morning at last check tops 24,400 contracts versus the stock’s average daily volume of around 6,100 contracts. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Raymond James, Citi, JPMorgan and Piper Jaffray downgraded and/or lowered price targets on the stock today. Trading traffic in PAY call options suggests some contrarian traders are positioning for shares to potentially rebound somewhat in the near term. Options traders nibbling at upside calls picked up around 600 lots at the Mar. $22 strike for an average premium of $0.55 apiece in the early going. Call buyers may profit at expiration next month in the event that VeriFone shares jump 16% off today’s low of $19.43 to exceed the average breakeven price of $22.55. Around 360 calls were purchased at the higher Mar. $23 strike at an average premium of $0.29 apiece, as well. Meanwhile, hefty paper profits may be available for one strategist who appears to have sold around 500 Mar. $34 strike calls on Wednesday afternoon ahead of today’s selloff. Time and sales data indicates the call options were sold at a premium of $1.05 apiece yesterday, contracts that can now be bought back at just $0.05 each.

RFMD - RF Micro Devices, Inc. – Bearish options are changing hands on the semiconductor components manufacturer today, with shares in RF Micro Devices tumbling on a downgrade to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Raymond James on concerns of increased competition from Qualcomm, amid a down day for U.S. stocks across the board. Shares in RF Micro Devices are down more than 13% as of midday in New York to stand at $4.49. Traders positioning for…
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Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?

Isn't this exciting!

The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend.  That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago!  Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?  

The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.

On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.  

This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least.  Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts.  Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.  

To some extent, hedge funds are also speculators and usually you would assume their bets are covered but that's kind of hard to see with a 7:1 long/short ratio.  Keep in mind that Commercial Traders are institutions with business reasons to hedge – they are not going to be flip-flopping their positions so they will NOT be buying Dollars just because they get cheaper.  So, if it all hits the fan and the Funds shift to short – we could get quite a tidal-wave of Dollar selling.

That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future.   This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.  

As you…
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Bullish for Hansen’s Monster drinks

Today’s tickers: HANS, SWKS & DGX

HANS - Hansen Natural Corp. – Earlier in the month the manufacturer of fruit juice and smoothies handsomely beat Wall Street’s earnings estimate by 20%. The distributor of Monster energy drink said international sales were doing well especially in Europe. During the past 12 months its share price has performed as a good bellwether for its revenue growth with shares jumping from $40 to $73.79 ahead of quarter one results. Before that one savvy investor showed up in the options market using calls at the $75 strike in an effort to profit from better times ahead. The investor paid $1.80 for 5,000 calls reserving the right to pay a fixed $75 to buy the stock ahead of expiration in September. It appears today that the investor is pushing his expectations higher following an accurate call last month. Spread trading in the name today shows the sale of those calls at a stimulated premium of $4.18 for a healthy 132% gain as the investor rolls in to the $80 strike at a $2.60 premium in the same calendar month today.

SWKS - Skyworks Solutions Inc. – A warning from an analyst at Deutsche Bank on Monday exacerbated a retreat from the sky for wireless chip-maker, Skyworks. Its options were among the most actively traded on Monday with almost four puts trading for each call in action. Yet the picture wasn’t entirely bearish. Deutsche Bank warned that its channel research left it concluding that when the credits roll out for Apple’s iPhone 5 in the fall, the Skyworks logo will be conspicuous by its absence. And as if the loss of sales wasn’t enough, Deutsche Bank warns that according to the outcome of meetings with its Asian contacts, the company has aggressively entered a price war to…
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Pessimism on Alcoa Apparent as Bears Bulk Up on Put Options

 Today’s tickers: AA, SWKS, WDC & CSC

AA - Alcoa, Inc. – Bearish options traders decided to pay Alcoa a visit this morning in order to pick up large numbers of put options in the November contract. Shares of the aluminum giant fell as much as 2.7% in the first half of the session to touch an intraday low of $12.77, but have recovered somewhat as of 11:50 a.m. to stand 0.60% lower on the day at $13.05. Pessimistic players piled into put options at the November $13 strike where more than 32,600 contracts changed hands by midday. It looks like the majority of the activity was initiated by one bearish individual who purchased approximately 23,000 puts at that strike at a premium of $0.55 per contract. The investor may be utilizing the puts to protect an existing position in the underlying shares. Alternatively, this transaction may represent an outright bearish bet on the aluminum maker. The put buyer starts to make money if Alcoa’s shares fall 4.6% from the current price of $13.05 to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $12.45 by expiration day next month. Alcoa’s overall reading of options implied volatility is up 6.6% at 36.02% as of 11:55 a.m. in New York trading.

SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. – Shares of the chip making company that supplies semiconductors for cellular devices such as Apple’s iPhone rallied as much as 3.1% this morning to secure a new 52-week high of $21.98. Options traders populating the stock focused their attention almost exclusively in November contract put options despite the rise in the price of the underlying shares. The majority of options volume generated on SWKS today appears to be involved in a sizeable debit put spread. It looks like one investor picked up 7,500 puts at the November $21 strike for a premium of $1.02 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower November $20 strike at a premium of $0.62 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread…
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Staples Firm – Proctor & Gamble Options Suggest Further Upside

Today’s tickers: PG, CTXS, LINTA, HIG, CVS, UUP, VIX, AONE, SWKS, CLX, BCSI & NVDA

PG – The Proctor & Gamble Co. – Bullish action on Proctor & Gamble today suggests one investor expects shares to continue to rally ahead of expiration in November. Shares are currently trading 1% higher to $61.13. The trader purchased 10,000 calls at the now in-the-money November 60 strike for 1.39 each, and simultaneously sold 10,000 calls at the higher November 62.5 strike for 26 cents apiece. The net cost of buying the call spread amounts to 1.13 per contract and yields maximum potential profits of 1.37 each if shares rally up to $62.50 by expiration. Shares need only rally another 2.2% from the current price to reach the $62.50-level.

CTXS – Citrix Systems, Inc. – Software developer, Citrix Systems, attracted bullish option traders to the November contract today amid a 1% increase in shares to $38.80. Investors displayed optimistic sentiment on the stock by selling approximately 10,600 puts at the November 35 strike for 10 cents premium apiece. Put-sellers retain the full dime-per-contract as long as shares remain above $35.00 through expiration this month. Shares of CTXS have traded above $36.00 since September 4, 2009.

LINTA – Liberty Media Corp. – Shares of the broadcasting and entertainment company rallied 1% during the trading session to $12.14. Plain-vanilla call buying action on the stock today suggests some investors expect shares to rise significantly by expiration in January 2010. Traders purchased about 11,800 calls at the January 15 strike for an average premium of 25 cents apiece. Call-buyers will accumulate profits if shares surge at least 26% from the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $15.25 by expiration.

HIG – Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Medium-term investors placed bearish bets on the insurance and financial services firm today. Shares are currently trading less than 0.25% higher to $24.16 after suffering significant erosion throughout the week. One pessimistic trader initiated a bearish risk reversal in the January 2010 contract. The investor sold 4,500 calls at the January 27 strike for an average premium of 78 cents apiece to partially finance the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower January 21 strike for 1.68 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to a more palatable 90 cents per contract, but does leave the investor exposed in the event of…
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Earthlink calendar spreader maintains pessimistic stance

Today’s tickers: ELNK, HBC, CECO, XLE, C, CMCSK, SWKS & ARNA

ELNK Earthlink , Inc. – The internet service provider has experienced a 5% decline in shares today to $6.29. ELNK popped onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a calendar roll. At the March 7.5 strike price 5,200 puts were sold for a premium of 95 cents each, while at the April 7.5 strike price 5,200 puts were purchased for 1.15 per contract. Maybe this investor sees Earthlink continuing to fall through next month, and therefore has rolled his in-the-money long-put position previously established in March into the next month’s contract.

HBC HSBC Holdings Plc ADS – As with many other financials today, shares of HBC have rallied 4% to $27.05. One trade of interest occurred at the March 30 strike price where an investor appears to have purchased a straddle by picking up 7,500 calls for 15 cents apiece and 7,500 puts for 3.20 per contract. You may be thinking, given where shares are with today’s rally – why on earth would someone pay a combined premium of 3.35 in the hope that shares of the bank swing to either breakeven point located at $33.35 on the upside and at $26.65 on the downside? While it is possible that this investor’s motivation for the trade is to see profits amass on falling share price, we believe there may be a different explanation. Perhaps this trader had previously sold the options leaving him short and now he is buying back the contracts in order to close out his short position. It appears that about 7,500 of the existing open interest for calls and puts at the March 30 strike was built up between February 5th and 6th. Thus, we propose that this investor may have originally sold the straddle in February and is not buying it back before the March contract expires on Friday.

CECO Career Education Corporation – Shares of the global education company have fallen 12% to $20.24. CECO is an on-ground provider of education at various levels and also has a significant presence in online education. The company edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor established plays in the March and April contracts. At the March 22.5 strike price it appears that one investor initiated a credit spread by purchasing 5,000 calls for 38 cents apiece…
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Phil's Favorites

Well this is...something

 

Well this is…something

Courtesy of 

I was on stage with Cathie Wood last fall for a conference at the Bloomberg headquarters in NYC. The topic? Using social media to build influence for your investment firm.

My perspective was “It’s time for me to start pulling back, I don’t even enjoy it anymore. People are miserable and angry and jealous and mad at themselves and I don’t want to be around it anymore.” Cathie was like (I’m paraphrasing) “F*** that, we’re going full speed ahead on Twitter, we’re using it to be provocative and to meet new sources of information and to differentiate ourselves from...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus stimulus checks: Trump says he can overcome GOP resistance in 'two minutes'

By Aman Jain. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hopes of another coronavirus stimulus reignited after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi restarted negotiations. Though the two are seemingly close to striking a deal, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is likely to block any such deal. When President Donald Trump was asked about possible resistance from the GOP over the coronavirus stimulus and checks, he said he would take care of it in “two minutes.”

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Trump confident on overcoming GOP resistance...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will 2020 Mark Historic Low For Interest Rates?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

US treasury bond yields have been trending lower for over 3 decades. Could the latest drop mark a significant low for bond yields and interest rates?

In today’s chart, we can see that interest rates have had several spike lows and highs, but that each low is lower and each high is lower. That’s the definition of a downtrend. BUT, each of these spike lows has resulted in big rallies within the downtrend channel. And each of these lows and subsequent rallies have been marked by significant momentum lows (see each green line and shaded box).

So is it time for short-term yields to rally?

Looking at the current set-up, we can see that yiel...



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Zero Hedge

Howard Marks Interviewed: What If The Fed's Master Plan Is To Kill The Business Cycle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

There was a brief period when in the days just after the covid crash, Oaktree's iconic founder Howard Marks - perhaps due to lack of more productive outlets - was publishing memos faster than people could read them. Then, he kinda faded away - perhaps because he was too busy cramming down his fellow investors in creditors fights involving covenant-lite loans - but re-emerged again last week when his latest memo "...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far - and the vital missing clues

 

Coronavirus reinfection cases: what we know so far – and the vital missing clues

By Sheena Cruickshank, University of Manchester

As President Trump claims that he is immune to COVID-19 and isolated reports emerge of reinfection, what is the truth about immunity to COVID-19?

To date, there have been six published ...



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Politics

Dan's Covid Charts: Blue States vs. Red States Over Time

 

The trend of lower Covid-19 case numbers per capita in blue states compared to red states isn't itself surprising, but the magnitude of the differences may be. You can visualize the evolving differences in case loads by watching the infection's progression, as measured by cases per capita, at Dan's website.

[Visit Dan’s COVID Charts to see these amazing animated charts and more. Fortunately, Dan broke his Twitter hiatus to share his work.]

People say I should break my 12-year Twitter hiatus to share my latest animated COVID chart. It compares state cases factoring in partisanship since June 1, when science had proven methodology as to how to stop the spread after the initial sucker punch. ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading - here's why it's not yet a big deal

 

Bitcoin: the UK and US are clamping down on crypto trading – here's why it's not yet a big deal

Where there’s a bit there’s a writ. Novikov Aleksey

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, University of Liverpool

The sale and promotion of derivatives of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to amateur investors is being banned in the UK by the financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). It is a...



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Chart School

Bitcoin chart review, here we go again!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Bitcoin has charged to the moon 4 times, well it looks like we going for a 5th. Bitcoin having 52 week new highs will bring the 'Robin Hoods' into the game.

This time may not be 10x, but 1x or 2x is still very nice thank you!


Chart 1: Accumulation is present, this alone suggest higher prices. In this blog view a typical risk on period is required to allow crypto's to rally (that is SP500 and oil up with the US dollar down), and this may arrive during the US election chaos.


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Chart 2: Big point. Notice how open interest has a lot of room to move before ...

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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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